BRAZIL:"The Economy is back on its feet":

Optimism has recently begun to appear. Investiments are returning after a long economic stagnation. Finally the Brazilian economy is starting to show signs of recovery; this will affect in a positive manner not  only companies, but also investors. Consumption increase surely will be the outcome. 

According to magazine "Isto é", one can find several reasons for the resumption.

● Brazil attracted this August us$ 7,2 Billion in investments destined to the productive sector. A much higher investment than in August 2015.

● The 67 billion reals provided for infrastructure has the potential to generate 2,7 million jobs.

● In September, the trade balance had a us$ 3,8 billion surplus, the best recording since 2006.

● More than 60% of the big Brazilian companies have resumed their investments in the last two months.

● Ibovespa (Sao Paolo's stock market) reached  a  64000 score. The biggest level since April 2012.

● After a big drop over the last 4 years, the brazilian market vehicles is expected to grow in 2017.

● Real State releasings increased 70% in August, comparing to the same month of the previous year.

● Analysts and banks are aiming high on the credit recover in 2017.

Thus, we oughtn't get too excited, but if Brazil achieves political stability, somehow economy will rise again next year. Perhaps the worst is over.

BRAZIL: Even the legislative Police is under investigation":

Federal Police has recently launched a new investigation concerning alleged counter-intelligence inside the legislative police from the National Congress.

Some elements of this Police would be allegedly obstructing the "Lava-Jato” (Car Wash) investigations.

BRAZIL:"The Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) suspends financing to construction companies":

BNDES announced the suspension of a $4,7 billion payment to finance construction company contracts abroad. These companies are being investigated over the procedure of "the car  wash operation". Therefore, it is recommended to review the contracts taking into account aspects such as the economic viability of the project, compliance costs, accordance with the international practice of hiring and checking the competition in the service provider selection process. 

BRAZIL:"Crisis: unemployment, one of the expected outcomes"

Reducing the wage bill has brought people under 18 and above 50 looking for a job. Unemployment is one of the most threatening consequences to social stability. It's rising among youngsters, elderly and people who have a higher degree. More ominously, the economically active population has risen over the last years; in other way there was a decrease in occupied population.

PORTUGAL: The China entrance

These days, António Costa, Portuguese prime minister is visiting China.

It has been seen that Costa is being received with all the pomp and circumstance.

Costa appeared in the Forum Macau. The Macau Forum is the full name of the Forum for Economic and Trade Cooperation between China and Portuguese-speaking countries and is an organization set up by the Central Government of China for "consolidation of economic and trade between China and Speaking Countries Portuguese, using Macau as a connecting platform for China and Portuguese-speaking countries. " So is a Chinese government body that has a permanent secretariat, and obviously seeks to centralize the relationships and influences of China to the Lusophone countries.

The current China, especially with the leadership of Xi Jinping, is no longer a "sleeping giant" but a country uphelding a strong geostrategic posture with a world view, which is essentially based on the double insurance markets: markets for their raw materials and markets to dispose of their manufacturing, in addition it tries to free itself from a certain geo-strategic encirclement. 

Within the Chinese strategic development Portugal and Portuguese speaking countries are obviously important. Angola and Brazil provide raw materials, Portugal provides some know-how and access to the European market, whereas the other main pillar is the United Kingdom now retreating from E.U.

China's global vision is reflected in the announcements made in that forum. The Prime Minister Li Keqiang announced special credits, grants and debt forgiveness in the next three years for Portuguese-speaking countries. He added that China will provide loans with special conditions in the amount of USD 300 million to four African Portuguese-speaking countries (PALOP), including Angola and East Timor until 2019 and donate another $ 300 million to the PALOP, and forgive debt that becomes due in the amount of USD 78 million.

There is a Chinese strategy of involvement of Portuguese speaking countries perceiving their reasonable drive and great potential.

ANGOLA: Chevron`s ultimatum to Sonangol

The managing director of Chevron in Angola, John Baltz, sent a few days ago an ultimatum to the Board of Sonangol. The US multinational claims payments of $ 300 million related to the obligations of Sonangol on production costs in Block 0 in Cabinda, operated by Chevron (39.2 percent) and in which Sonangol holds 40 percent of the share.

Since the appointment of the Board of Directors in June, Sonangol failed to honor its contractual commitments with Chevron,

Houston sources indicate that Isabel dos Santos has a week to explain the Chevron how pay the debt. This requirement stems from the fact that Chevron has tried to reach an amicable solution and not have found reciprocity on the part of Isabel dos Santos administration. The president's daughter initially certify the date of 27 June to comply with Sonangol's obligations to Chevron. A new promise was made for July 27, and was also not met. The date of 29 September was also ignored.

The Agreement of Joint Operations Block 0 stipulates that in case of default in payment by more than 21 days, the associated fault shall incur the loss of its participation rights.

Chevron may trigger this clause of the agreement if Sonangol does not explain and commit within a week about how and when to settle your debt. This position means that Chevron can sell the share of oil belonging to Sonangol, rather than to deliver.

Adapted from Rafael Marques Morais (makaangola.org)

BRAZIL:"Temer is unpopular, so what's next?"

Although Temer's government has low levels of approval, he is focused on his main goals. At least, he tries to enhance that whenever he has a chance.

As previously mentioned the government is coming forward with a proposal which aims to limit public spending. Temer is looking for every sort of support, not only in his political party basis, but also his allies. Once approved this measure will  be the backbone of other political reforms. Controlling public spending will allow the resumption of employment and thus investment.

In order to be successful in the near future, it is crucial the government takes coordinated actions. It shouldn't make the same mistakes over and over as it was seen in the past, where disarray seemed to overlap the measures itself.

"Local elections: The ongoing PT free fall and the rise of the PSDB"

Local elections were held last sunday in an atmosphere of expectation, anxiety, but also losing credibility.

As expected, the PT (workers party) is in free fall and the PSDB (Brazilian social democratic party) is the big beneficiary from it. This definetly isn't a surprise.  Yet, other issues should be stressed. The President's party was the one which have won more city halls.

Blanc and spoilt votes as well abstention had a considerable growth. Sao Paulo (SP) and Rio de Janeiro are a tremendous example of it. What if the vote was optional?

Several political parties polarized the elections, but much more important than that is the candidate profile. If one is appreciated by citizens, the party which supports him is not that important.

In SP we could witness an astonishing PSDB victory on the first round. A few months ago, João Doria was an unknown political actor. He has just begun his political career. He was supported by Geraldo Alckmin (one possible candidate to 2018 presidencial elections), but most of the PSDB chiefs were against him. At the beginning polls just gave 5% of the votes to João. Without any political experience he achieved a resounding victory. 53% of the votes, leaving the other candidates far behind with no chance of a 2nd round. João Doria is a well succeded businessmen who wants to apply in the government what he's been doing in the private sector.

Popular discontent with the political class is obvious and was largely emphasized over the elections.

One last word: The Bank Clerk strike is reaching a month length. This strike hinders cash withdrawal leading to a reducing consumption that affects commerce. The small and micro companies are already facing severe problems.