BRAZIL:"Politicians vs Judges":

BRAZIL:"Politicians vs Judges":

Brazil is facing another political crisis which is culminating in several demonstrations over the country.

This time the measures against corruption created by the Federal Prosecutors`Office are at stake. The Chamber of Deputies modified its initial project, claiming misuse of authorithy by judges and public prosecutor's officers. It even foresees their arrest. These changes would be voted with urgent status by the Senate. This type of political manoeuvres eventually led to another gigantic popular uprising. Several deputies are facing legal proceedings and apparently the "lava jato" operation is leaving politicians more shameless than ever.

Are people's determination to overhaul politics changing anything? Renan Calheiros (senate President) seems to be the first suffering the consequences at this stage, or maybe not.  The population is on the judge's side (they are the "good guys"). The "villains" are the politicians as usual. But, aren't we dealing over a constant rush of functions among the three powers?

Brazil urgently needs order and credibility in its political institutions. Unfortunately corruption is walking hand in hand with politics. Nevertheless, perhaps giving the judges a carte blanche isn't the best answer.

BRAZIL: "Politicians in prison: who's next?"

Arrests in Brasil are happening at a frenetic pace with a big mixed feeling of enthusiasm and revolt from population.

In September we had the arrests of Guido Mantega (revoked afterwards - former Lula and Dilma finance minister) and Antonio Palocci (former Lula finance minister).

Last month, Eduardo Cunha's arrest (one of the most influential politicians over the last 20 years and former chamber of deputies president)   caused many concern on some  political channels. If a plea bargain goes along with Cunha (it seems Cunha knows many things) a new political "earthquake" may devastate Brazil again.

This November there was the imprisonment of two former Rio de Janeiro governors. Antonio Garotinho (accused of vote buying) and Sergio Cabral (allegedly diverted public funds from government). The estimated loss is around $R 200 million reals.

The Media went crazy by having a lot of news which allows them to "spout its poison" wherever they want. People are claiming for exemplary punishments. Judges build prestige each time some prominent politician is put into jail. Sérgio Moro, the judge and main protagonist of the "lava jato" operation is gaining unprecedent prestige. Some points can be raised. Will we witness fair, prompt and effective trials? Will the judiciary system be reliable and exempt? Who's next in prison?

BRAZIL:Trump got the election. Is it good for Brazil?"

BRAZIL:"Trump got the election. Is it good for Brazil?"

Economy and trading - The Republican party stands for free trade. That would be great for Brazil if it also followed that path. Yet Trump has already enhanced that american trading deals must be renegotiated in order to preserve jobs and reduce the American deficit with the rest of the world.

Immigration - Trump statements over immigration issues have been controversial and rather explored by  media. One must understand it's important to differentiate legal and illegal immigrants. And most of all, those who have criminal records. The entry of new immigrants will depend much on the chances one has of being successful in the US.

Brazil-USA ties: over the last years there was some distance between the two countries. Hillary and Trump didn't speak much about Brazil or even spoke clearly about latin American policies. T rump has been demonstrating signs of unpredictability. Brazil-US ties are diverse. Temer surely wants a more attractive country to International investment, thus the US is a key player to this "new" Brazil, regardless the president's name.

The uncertainty after Trump's election and his political economic guidelines generated the sudden surge of the US dollar. It's over R$ 3,40 even with the intervention by Central Bank.

BRAZIL:"The university admission exam (enem) is just one more warning Brazilian society is awfully segmented"

Last weekend the Enem was held  in all Brazilian states.  Some students weren't able to do it now, because the school or university where the exam should take place was occupied by some students and other individuais who are against the governamental measure which aims restricting federal public spending. 

As usual, there were those who were for and against this assessment test. Some students arrived late to the exam, thus weren't able to do it. The media and some assholes turn this situation into a show event, humiliating the laggards. The compositon subject was about "ways to fight religious intolerance in Brazil". Intolerance is by itself rising in Brazil.

Enem is just one more episode demonstrating how Brazil is divided. Nowadays, what stands out in Brazil is the sharp division among brazilian society, particularly a more radical confrontation between Left and Right.

BRAZIL:"Local elections 2nd round: trends confirmed":

Local elections second round have just confirmed what we have been glimpsing in the first:

● The sharp decline of the workers party (PT). Consequently the conservative forces are gradually gaining ground. This isn't only a consequence of the "lava jato" operation.

● PMDB (Brazilian democratic movement) increase; nevertheless it lost Rio de Janeiro and the old political establishment has seen better days.

● PSDB (Brazilian social democracy party) also improved its results. This 2nd round acknowledges Geraldo Alckmin as the strongest party candidate for the next presidential elections.

● The multitude of  parties in these elections is showing how society is fragmented.

BRAZIL:"The Economy is back on its feet":

Optimism has recently begun to appear. Investiments are returning after a long economic stagnation. Finally the Brazilian economy is starting to show signs of recovery; this will affect in a positive manner not  only companies, but also investors. Consumption increase surely will be the outcome. 

According to magazine "Isto é", one can find several reasons for the resumption.

● Brazil attracted this August us$ 7,2 Billion in investments destined to the productive sector. A much higher investment than in August 2015.

● The 67 billion reals provided for infrastructure has the potential to generate 2,7 million jobs.

● In September, the trade balance had a us$ 3,8 billion surplus, the best recording since 2006.

● More than 60% of the big Brazilian companies have resumed their investments in the last two months.

● Ibovespa (Sao Paolo's stock market) reached  a  64000 score. The biggest level since April 2012.

● After a big drop over the last 4 years, the brazilian market vehicles is expected to grow in 2017.

● Real State releasings increased 70% in August, comparing to the same month of the previous year.

● Analysts and banks are aiming high on the credit recover in 2017.

Thus, we oughtn't get too excited, but if Brazil achieves political stability, somehow economy will rise again next year. Perhaps the worst is over.

BRAZIL: Even the legislative Police is under investigation":

Federal Police has recently launched a new investigation concerning alleged counter-intelligence inside the legislative police from the National Congress.

Some elements of this Police would be allegedly obstructing the "Lava-Jato” (Car Wash) investigations.

BRAZIL:"The Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) suspends financing to construction companies":

BNDES announced the suspension of a $4,7 billion payment to finance construction company contracts abroad. These companies are being investigated over the procedure of "the car  wash operation". Therefore, it is recommended to review the contracts taking into account aspects such as the economic viability of the project, compliance costs, accordance with the international practice of hiring and checking the competition in the service provider selection process. 

BRAZIL:"Crisis: unemployment, one of the expected outcomes"

Reducing the wage bill has brought people under 18 and above 50 looking for a job. Unemployment is one of the most threatening consequences to social stability. It's rising among youngsters, elderly and people who have a higher degree. More ominously, the economically active population has risen over the last years; in other way there was a decrease in occupied population.

PORTUGAL: The China entrance

These days, António Costa, Portuguese prime minister is visiting China.

It has been seen that Costa is being received with all the pomp and circumstance.

Costa appeared in the Forum Macau. The Macau Forum is the full name of the Forum for Economic and Trade Cooperation between China and Portuguese-speaking countries and is an organization set up by the Central Government of China for "consolidation of economic and trade between China and Speaking Countries Portuguese, using Macau as a connecting platform for China and Portuguese-speaking countries. " So is a Chinese government body that has a permanent secretariat, and obviously seeks to centralize the relationships and influences of China to the Lusophone countries.

The current China, especially with the leadership of Xi Jinping, is no longer a "sleeping giant" but a country uphelding a strong geostrategic posture with a world view, which is essentially based on the double insurance markets: markets for their raw materials and markets to dispose of their manufacturing, in addition it tries to free itself from a certain geo-strategic encirclement. 

Within the Chinese strategic development Portugal and Portuguese speaking countries are obviously important. Angola and Brazil provide raw materials, Portugal provides some know-how and access to the European market, whereas the other main pillar is the United Kingdom now retreating from E.U.

China's global vision is reflected in the announcements made in that forum. The Prime Minister Li Keqiang announced special credits, grants and debt forgiveness in the next three years for Portuguese-speaking countries. He added that China will provide loans with special conditions in the amount of USD 300 million to four African Portuguese-speaking countries (PALOP), including Angola and East Timor until 2019 and donate another $ 300 million to the PALOP, and forgive debt that becomes due in the amount of USD 78 million.

There is a Chinese strategy of involvement of Portuguese speaking countries perceiving their reasonable drive and great potential.

ANGOLA: Chevron`s ultimatum to Sonangol

The managing director of Chevron in Angola, John Baltz, sent a few days ago an ultimatum to the Board of Sonangol. The US multinational claims payments of $ 300 million related to the obligations of Sonangol on production costs in Block 0 in Cabinda, operated by Chevron (39.2 percent) and in which Sonangol holds 40 percent of the share.

Since the appointment of the Board of Directors in June, Sonangol failed to honor its contractual commitments with Chevron,

Houston sources indicate that Isabel dos Santos has a week to explain the Chevron how pay the debt. This requirement stems from the fact that Chevron has tried to reach an amicable solution and not have found reciprocity on the part of Isabel dos Santos administration. The president's daughter initially certify the date of 27 June to comply with Sonangol's obligations to Chevron. A new promise was made for July 27, and was also not met. The date of 29 September was also ignored.

The Agreement of Joint Operations Block 0 stipulates that in case of default in payment by more than 21 days, the associated fault shall incur the loss of its participation rights.

Chevron may trigger this clause of the agreement if Sonangol does not explain and commit within a week about how and when to settle your debt. This position means that Chevron can sell the share of oil belonging to Sonangol, rather than to deliver.

Adapted from Rafael Marques Morais (makaangola.org)

BRAZIL:"Temer is unpopular, so what's next?"

Although Temer's government has low levels of approval, he is focused on his main goals. At least, he tries to enhance that whenever he has a chance.

As previously mentioned the government is coming forward with a proposal which aims to limit public spending. Temer is looking for every sort of support, not only in his political party basis, but also his allies. Once approved this measure will  be the backbone of other political reforms. Controlling public spending will allow the resumption of employment and thus investment.

In order to be successful in the near future, it is crucial the government takes coordinated actions. It shouldn't make the same mistakes over and over as it was seen in the past, where disarray seemed to overlap the measures itself.

"Local elections: The ongoing PT free fall and the rise of the PSDB"

Local elections were held last sunday in an atmosphere of expectation, anxiety, but also losing credibility.

As expected, the PT (workers party) is in free fall and the PSDB (Brazilian social democratic party) is the big beneficiary from it. This definetly isn't a surprise.  Yet, other issues should be stressed. The President's party was the one which have won more city halls.

Blanc and spoilt votes as well abstention had a considerable growth. Sao Paulo (SP) and Rio de Janeiro are a tremendous example of it. What if the vote was optional?

Several political parties polarized the elections, but much more important than that is the candidate profile. If one is appreciated by citizens, the party which supports him is not that important.

In SP we could witness an astonishing PSDB victory on the first round. A few months ago, João Doria was an unknown political actor. He has just begun his political career. He was supported by Geraldo Alckmin (one possible candidate to 2018 presidencial elections), but most of the PSDB chiefs were against him. At the beginning polls just gave 5% of the votes to João. Without any political experience he achieved a resounding victory. 53% of the votes, leaving the other candidates far behind with no chance of a 2nd round. João Doria is a well succeded businessmen who wants to apply in the government what he's been doing in the private sector.

Popular discontent with the political class is obvious and was largely emphasized over the elections.

One last word: The Bank Clerk strike is reaching a month length. This strike hinders cash withdrawal leading to a reducing consumption that affects commerce. The small and micro companies are already facing severe problems.

BRAZIL:"High School education reform is on the way"

Temer's government has just shown its first intentions concerning high school education. The high school reform which is envisaged promises to agitate the educacional system in a way that no one has seen in recent years.

Some points were highlighted by the media in recent days: course load increase (from 800 to 1400 hours/year) - progressive expansion of schools with a full time schedule. 

Teaching will be divided into two stages. A first stage would be common to all students with regard to curricular programme. On the second stage a student might choose one area of his interest and specialize in it - math, languages, natural sciences, human sciences, technical and professional courses. Some complementary subjects will be required over high school years: math, portuguese language and english.

Not surprisingly, this reform is causing controversy among not only several political quadrants, but also society as a whole. Some current complementary subjects are being left behind and this is just the tip of the iceberg.

However, the government in a somewhat awkwardly way, stressed that it is essential to move forward with an educational reform, even though it will be the Curriculum national basis defining the various stages of basic education. The most important education protagonists will have the chance to shape a new assumption for an education which safeguards students interests. More than the number of hours students spend in school, it's much more important the teaching method efficiency and the contents taught. 

" Privatisations, the storm of unemployment and the dying fall of Lula"

The government of Michel Temer announced the plan "Crescer"(grow). It aims to achieve concessions and privatisations for the next two years. There are 32 projects distributed over several sectors: roads, railways, ports, mining and energy. In 2017 this plan foresees a collection around $ 7,5 Billion.

Unemployment is naturally one of the main tragic consequences of the political economic crisis. In 2015 Brazil had a cutting employment of over 1.5 million formal jobs. It was the biggest cut since there is official registration.

For the first time, former President Lula was formally accused within Lava jato operation. The Paraná Federal Prosecution Office charges him of passive corruption and money laundering. The huge sums  of money received by Lula's foundation related to his lectures is also under investigation. Once called a messiah by many brazilians, now Lula faces the Judge Sérgio Moro (nicknamed by some the super-judge).

BRAZIL:"The Military regime option is increasingly gaining ground among a fringe of Brazilian society"

"The Military regime option is increasingly gaining ground among a fringe of Brazilian society"

The military regime solution is becoming very popular due to a constant political mess and turmoil which appears not coming to an end. This mood didn't arise overnight. Most of the athletes who won olympic medals in Rio de Janeiro were under the army competency. They saluted the flag during the national anthem demonstrating a patriotism that was questioned by some. However, the population in most cases approved this gesture, since it only showed one thing: patriotism.

From the time the Workers Party (PT) has begun to crumble, especially its main figures- Lula and Dilma lost of credibility, the military regime supporters make their voices heard and gain ground, condemning not only the PT, but also the other main parties (constantly involved in corruption schemes).

Brazilian democracy is rather immature. It succeded a military dictatorship (1964-1985). Unfortunately, since then, there were several periods where corruption and other negative factors, were haunting the main political representatives of the State.

Temer's first days have been rather difficult showing a faltering and uncoordinated government.

Let's hope Brazil finally keep pace with sustainable development once and for all. 

BRAZIL:"Temer's first moves after booting Dilma out":

"Temer's first moves after booting Dilma out":

The President of Brazil, Michel Temer is trying to suggest Brazil has returned to its regular routine. The world must see a country that shows some credibility.

Temer's image is vulnerable, especially after the sharp fractionation of his base of support in the vote on the political rights of Dilma. Protests and demonstrations against his government are causing more discomfort than expected.

But not all the news have been bad. The urgent measures which Temer wants to apply have been posted here and it seems they aren't forgotten. Now is the time to take unpopular key measures. If Brazil wants to roar back, first needs to adjust the economy.

 Brazil hasn't the money to invest in infrastructure, but from China there are big companies which have a keen interest in this matter seeking long-term projects.

CBS steel- $USD 3 Billion for the steel industry in Maranhão is expected to be invested.

China Communications company - capital investment of $USD 460 million in a cargo terminal in Sao Luís.

Hunan Dakang- $USD 1 Billion investment in Brazilian agriculture.

Embraer- closed the deal of selling 4 aircraft to two chinese corporate groups.

BRAZIL-"The impeachment is approved: is this the swan song for Dilma?"

"The impeachment is approved: is this the swan song for Dilma?"

After a long stalemate in Brazilian politics, Dilma Rousseff is definitely out of office. The senate voted largely for her destitution (61 X 20).

However, when everybody thought that Dilma's political "burial" was materialized, the Brazilian politicians surprised us with another political manoeuvre. Violating the Constitution politicians decided to make a separate vote about wether or not Dilma should mantain her political rights. And guess what? This time Dilma wins.

Thus, current situation besides being bizarre might be awkward for Temer winning legitimacy among the population. It also opens a dangerous precedent which can favour the politicians who find themselves engaged in court processes.

BRAZIL:"Agro + plan is launched":

"Agro + plan is launched":

The Brazilian minister for agriculture, Blairo Maggi has introduced an ambitious plan for the agricultural sector. Agro + seeks the increase of the brazilian agrobusiness economic competitiveness and the watchword for this programme is debureaucratisation.

According to Maggi, Brazil has a great potencial, but it should improve a lot in this sector, since it has only been present in 42% of the global agricultural market. The main goal is having a bigger share in the global market.

This plan presents us three major lines of action:

- Transparency and partnership.

- Improvement of the regulatory process and technical standards.

- Simplify foreign trade.

In the meantime, all Brazilians are looking forward to the impeachment final outcome.

ANGOLA- Woes with China cash?

Is China beginning to lose patience with the Angolan regime? We have learned that the China Development Bank (CDB) has declined to make any further funds available to the Angolan state oil company Sonangol, under a US $15 billion line of credit granted in December 2015, citing Angola’s “lack of contractual compliance” and attempts to “use the money for indeterminate ends”.

BRAZIL-" The Real and Investors: 2 hot topics in Brazil"

" The Real and Investors: 2 hot topics in Brazil"

According to the Bank for International Settlements, the Real is until now the currency which has the highest appreciation rate. This appreciation (10,7% between May and June), has been stronger since Dilma Rousseff was forced to leave office.

Meanwhile, larger companies from many areas of business, with a special focus in the industrial segment, make their voices heard through several statements in the media, pointing out they are just awaiting for the definitive removal of the former President, to finally resume investment on a large scale. Ís the political turmoil coming to an end?

BRAZIL:The Government is making some moves

While the Olympics are currently underway, the Federal Government (FG) is making some moves. 

- It was announced a significant cut in investments planned for Federal universities. It shouldn't be forgotten however that these cuts are happening since the end of 2014.

- The interim President, Michel Temer is launching a project which aims the revitalization of the Sao Francisco River. This Project should cost more than R 1 Billion reals until 2019. It shouldn't be underestimated, because the water quality of this river is vital to more than 16 million Brazilians. Many areas have the problem of water scarcity, especially the northeast region.

- This government supports privatizations. Thus, Temer promised to announce a list of State-owned companies that will be privatized. Coincidentally or not, the announcement is scheduled for the 25th of this month, date for starting the trial of Dilma Rousseff, the President removed from office.

PORTUGAL: Secular stagnation

Recent numbers concerning Portugal GDP are very weak. It seems that Portugal is confronting a secular stagnation that will be solved only by some kind of economic revolution,

ANGOLA: Sonangol defaults

Sonangol was not able honour its international banking debts during the month of July. Also, apparently, the USA has sent signals that Isabel dos Santos designation as Chairperson of Sonangol was a bad idea, and due to that the company was not able to raise cash in the USA.

ANGOLA: Trouble at Sonangol. Deutsche Welle reports

The presence of Portuguese officials in Sonangol accentuates the tension between the old and the new administration, currently under the command of Isabel dos Santos.

Lack of experience from new consultants, distrust and the  threat intelligence leaks  of the Angolan state oil  call into question the company's business, already weakened by the crisis in the international oil market.

"Both sides, both former directors or new employees are sending information out to hinder the work of each other," the jurist Rui Verde.

Amid the "political war" on Sonangol, the Portuguese are mere instruments in the hands of the daughter of Angolan president, assesses the analyst in an interview with DW Africa. But at the same time have high potential to harm Isabel dos Santos plans.

BRAZIL:To raise or not to raise taxes, that is the question.

Tax increase is one of the main challenges Henrique Meirelles (finance minister) faces in the future. Tax burden will be higher or not depending on government revenues. These have been dropping since last year. It should be remembered public debt already exceeds 70% of the GDP.

That's why Meirelles assumes a number of measures which are needed to be adopted:

First of all, it's necessary to let the market stabilize. Only this way the economy will recover.

This interim government has already made clear that is a supporter of privatisations. The economic predicament Brazil lives demands tough measures. And privatisation can generate increased revenue.

Wait for the approval of the social security reform planned for 2017.

Make viable and effective a maximum level of government spending.

Tighten the belt applying efficient economic measures is a must for today.

BRAZIL: An Olympic mess

"An olympic mess"

The olympic games haven't started yet and severe criticism is already gaining ground. Everyone knew the work performed for the Olympics was overpriced and the budget leak wasn't innocent. As usual corruption associated to comissioned illicit acts is overshadowing the political and eonomical life of Brazil.

However, despiste this pattern already inveterately rooted in the country, things can be worse. On the eve of this huge event, chaos is the main trait one can find in the olympic village. Accomodation is turning into a nightmare to some foreign delegations. How can someone feel comfortable without water or energy, have clogged sinks and pipes, see garbage in an area which is supposed to keep materials, or witnessing a short-circuit?

In the waters of Guanabara bay (where some water sports competitions will take place) everything you can't imagine was found. And the waters are still dangerously polluted! Instead of blaming each other for this mess politicians and businessmen should firstly change their mentality.

Rio de Janeiro is seriously worried about terrorist attacks. I couldn't agree more. But, what about the violence that occurs in this city on a daily routine? Rio and other brazilian cities seem to live in a permanent civil war. Shouldn't we worry about it? After all, hasn't the life of a "carioca" (native from Rio de Janeiro) the same value as that of a foreigner?

A final note to the former President of Brazil, Lula da Silva. Finally it was held defendant, allegedly for trying to obstruct  investigation in the well-known operation "lava jato". 

ANGOLA: Sonangol will no longer by directly the assets of Cobalt

The chairman of Sonangol Isabel dos Santos confirmed to US Cobalt it will no longer buy directly the participation of that oil company in two blocks. 

Isabel dos Santos, confirmed the US Cobalt that the Angolan company will no longer buy directly the participation of that oil company in two blocks, previously traded for 1.5 billion dollars.

It seems that Isabel dos Santos is ripping contracts previously signed by the anterior board.

BRAZIL: Economic revival

Consumers and businessmen are trusting again in the Brazilian economy. Economic recovery is coming sooner than many imagined. Some optimistic forecast a growth of 2% in 2017 and 4% one year after. Not bad after a long period of ordeal and uncertainty. Gradually confidence returns. A total of up to $35 Billion dollars are expected to be invested by global funds.

A new cycle is beginning. A great step forward was the impeachment approval of former president Dilma Rousseff. Recentlly, there was also the removal of Eduardo Cunha (former president of the chamber of deputies), who represented a hinderance for the development of urgent measures.

The Market has been reacting with moderate optimism. Bovespa (Sao Paulo stock exchange) this year rose more than 30%. The Real is appreciating noticeably and several economic sectors already look to the future with much more optimism. Even the IMF already sees some progress in the brazilian economy.

This interim government will announce a package of measures and serve as a counterpoint to fiscal adjustment. As soon as the impeachment is validated several pending issues will be triggered.

It is necessary to clarify that most of the main problems still remain. Unemployment is still rising and this trend will continue most likely until the middle of next year. However its growth will be much slower and inflation will have a tendency to fall in the near future. Therefore, consumer's budget will get more relieved. Dangers are always nearby. The ghosts of the past still affect nowadays and surely will influencie the future. But the increase in confidence and good prospects for the future are here to stay.

BRAZIL:Time to invest in Brazil

Nowadays, with an interim government associated with center-right politics, Brazil is following sharper policies.

Some funds and market bonds are bringing good profits to investors. The foreign direct investment is much higher than the rest of South American countries. Future prospects at short-term are optimistic.

But why invest if we have so many bad news coming from Brazil? If the macroeconomics environment is favorable and if economy is at rock bottom, possibly that's the right time to invest. Economic policies encouraged by the interim government seem to have pleased the market whom has corresponded positively. See the recent appreciation of the Real (Brazil`s currency) against the dollar.

Let's not forget Brazil always had severe structural problems. Markets also have periods of contraction and adjustments.

Difficult times can still go on. Nobody knows for how long. Nevertheless, Temer's government has established some assumptions that have been positively interpreted by investors and Brazil continues to attract them.

ANGOLA:Sonangol`s debt woes

"The task facing Angola’s state oil company, Sonangol, as it adjusts to lower revenues during the slump in oil prices, is complicated by a stratospheric debt burden which gives little room for manoeuvre.  And yet the new administration is unexpectedly making repayment of one private debt a top priority.In spite of multiple pressing issues (including the root-and-branch restructuring of Sonangol) repayment of this particular debt has been fast-tracked by Sonangol’s new CEO, the President’s daughter Isabel dos Santos.   A source close to the Sonangol board has told Maka Angola it’s the reason why Sonangol has been seeking a loan of US $800 million from a bank based in Egypt, offering as surety its shares in the Millenium BCP division of Portugal’s largest private bank, the Commercial Bank of Portugal (BCP).  The urgent repayment?  A one billion US dollar debt owed to Trafigura. This is the joint venture between the controversial Swiss multinational Trafigura, trading as the DT Group and Angola’s Cochan company. Trafigura exports Angolan crude, and then imports the refined fuels back into Angola, with a near monopoly on the import of petrol and diesel."

From Rafael Marques de Morais "Sonangol's Billion Dollar Headache" in MakaAngola

BRAZIL: Finally some good news for Temer:

After two months leading the Brazilians, Michel Temer finds the first reasons to cheer up. Notwithstanding much criticism, his popularity slightly increased in the last month.

This government struggles for credibility since day one. Austerity and the political rhetoric of efficiency are the major mottos, at least up to now.

Those arguments have generated a reliable growth in some key areas such as the industrial sector.

Some measures and overall aims are noteworthy. The reduction of nine ministries led to a freezing of comissioned posts. Positive as well, was sending a proposal for a constitutional amendment that limits the increase in public expenditure to inflation of the previous year.

Brazil urgently needs to carry out a fiscal adjustment. Surely some unpopular measures are necessary. Pension reform and the welfare state is directly related with the great turmoil Brazil has in state coffers.

ANGOLA:SONANGOL pays to COBALT and TRAFIGURA?

Inside sources say that with the change of SONANGOL`s administration the resolution of the debt to Trafigura  and the payment of the purchase of Cobalt International operations in Angola, are priorities of Isabel dos Santos, as they are business´linked with palatial presidential interests.

PORTUGAL:Portugal`s risk

Portugal is entering a danger zone. Economic performance is low, public debt increases, the banks are not to be  trusted. 

It is common opinion that even England in turmoil Brexit provides more confidence then the Portuguese economy.

Two factors contribute to this feeling: the anti-Europeanism of parties that support the government, which begins to be felt in the Prime Minister's rhetoric and the poor results of the economy.

An exitof the danger zone can only be obtained with political change and the adoption of policies that comfort the German partners. 

There was a kind of trade-off. Portugal followed a policy and in exchange Germany supported to Portugal in case of  need. This trade-off has been broken.

So the economic issue is primarily political.

BRAZIL:Brazil high taxes

"Most Brazilians are against the high levels of taxes. Constant and disproportionate increase in public expenditure is not the way"

Rather than raising taxes, the Federal Government should cut public expenditure and improve the management of resources. Brazilian population clamours for a good quality of public services a long time ago.

The efficiency of federal and state services are always at stake; unfortunately hardly ever a high standard level is reached. Health and public security remain the most cricticized areas. As for education, still lags far behind of what is expected, particularly in a society that is to be modern and developed.

Portugal: Interest rates to finance public debt double Spain

Portugal already pays the  double of Spanish interest rates.

At a time when the spotlight is on Portugal because of the threat of sanctions, the country went to the market to finance itself over the long term paying interest of about 3%.

The premium demanded by investors lowered concerning to the last issue, yet the compensation required for the purchase of Portuguese public debt to ten years is more than twice the amount required to Spain.

Inflation accelerates in Angola + 31%

Inflation accelerates in Angola. Prices in Luanda soared 31.8 percent in the last 12 months, until June,  almost tripling maximum government forecasts, mainly due to the services, health and clothing sectors.

The information is contained in the monthly report of the National Statistics Institute (INE) on the behavior of inflation.

Angola. 07-13-2016. Bankruptcy lurking?

The Angolan Government refused an EFF program from the IMF. But they have no money to feed the Army, and asked a loan to the BAI to buy aliments for Armed and Security Forces. The personnel at embassies have 5 months of delayed salaries. Meanwhile the projected deficit for 2016 was raised to 6%.Things are going through a rough path.

RAADSV- Angolan Consultant

Brazil updates-07-12-2016

Brexit and Brazil- Political long-term risks

The Brexit in the United Kingdom revived the Brazilian independence movements. In the State of Sao Paulo, Pernambuco and South of the country, there are independence movements that will hold unofficial referendums in which will ask all citizens whether they are in favor of the independence of its states. However, these referendums have no legal effects. 

Some traits one could highlight in these movements:

• They don’t call themselves neither left nor right wing movements.

• They aren’t associated with any political party.

• Minimal state intervention.

• Pacifism is stressed, although there can be some doubt about it.

• Cultural and economic differences are enhanced between these States and the rest of Brazil.

• Government only for those who genuinely represent the interests of population.

• Supporters of a different tax distribution.

Individual Micro-entrepreneurs are increasingly indebted

Entrepreneurship should be encouraged and is one of the main

prerequisites for the development of a country.

Nevertheless, Brazil is going through an unprecedent crises that

ends up by dragging individual micro-entrepreneurs to indebtedness. 

Many accumulate debts which ultimately endanger the viability of their business.

But, aren't small enterprises important for the economy?

Absolutely!

However, one has to be prepared and have from the beginning a 

well defined strategy. The problem is that many of these micro-

entrepreneurs don't prepare for their venture.

They wanted to escape unemployment at all cost and embarked on

a new adventure without having any ability, know-how, or at least 

a strategy.

Actually, from one day to another some citizens became

entrepreneurs forcibly.

MAADSV-Brazil consultant

Political, legal and economic risk assessments. Angola,Portugal, Brazil. A new service of information

This is the novel weekly newsletter of Global S. Prospective, a boutique consultancy of Political, Economic and Legal Risk Assessment 

Global S. Prospective – Africa, South America and Southwest Europe Risks

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Angola- Fears about financial capacity of state oil company Sonangol.

In the coming days, the Board of Directors of Sonangol should respond in London with the Standard Chartered Bank, on breaches of its contractual obligations to the international banks, especially those that refer to debt ratios. The international financing obtained by Sonangol in have been brokered by Standard Chartered Bank. Currently, the debt of the Angolan national oil company with the international banks exceeds $ 13 billion dollars.

Portugal- Banking crisis looming.

The banking crisis in Portugal deepens. The largest bank, which belongs to the state, CGD, needs a capital injection of 5 billion Euros due to previous political and management malpractices. The selling of New Bank (formerly BES) subject of resolution in 2014 is facing another delay due to Brexit.

Meanwhile, the other major Bank-BCP has SONANGOL (Angolan state oil company- see above) as largest shareholder, so faces an uncertain future. Strangely, only banks with Spanish ownership present stable outlook, as Santander, and BPI after the consummation of the takeover bid by the Spanish La Caixa .

Spain-Brexit menaces Spain success

Brexit risk is now a reality, and its arrival triggers a double threat in Spain. Spain not only can be affected by its trade relations with Britain, but also by the halt of its neighbours and partners in the euro zone.  Britain is the third largest destination for Spanish exports, with a share of 8%, and the European Union (EU) accounts for 67% of Spanish exports and the euro zone, 52.4%. Already in the first quarter of 2016, and in a context of slowing global trade, Spanish exports growth declined to 3.7%, the slowest pace since mid-2014. If the political crisis is not solved rapidly, Spain could be again in dire straits.

Brazil- New economic policy. Fiscal austerity in a shrinking economy

New Brazilian interim government sent a proposal of Constitutional Amendment to the Congress, establishing a legal threshold to public expenditure. The economic policy of the government is to embark in an austerity, considering that first is important to balance the budget and then expect the economy to growth. The certainty is that in the meantime the real economy will suffer, bankruptcies augment, as well unemployment.

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This is the result of the private assessment of our experts concerning this week.

We can deliver more information and deepen any of this subjects, if asked

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Rui Verde, PhD

CEO

Global S. Prospective

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Global S. Prospective is small boutique consultancy staffed by scholars and professionals that assess the political, economic and legal risks concerning investments and activities in South America, Southwest Europe, and Africa

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Consult us (private email): global.s.prospective@gmail.com

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Global S. Prospective

Politics, Economics and Law in the South of the World