PORTUGAL: INEFFICIENCY AND LACK OF ACCOUNTABILITY COMPENSATES

It should be recalled that the portuguese Prime Minister António Costa didn’t win the last elections. He rules Portugal, with the support of two leftist parties which don’t advocate the inclusion of Portugal in the EU, and support without hindrance of any kind, dictatorships, or strangled democracies, such as Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea ,or even Angola. They think to represente the absolute truth in all the causes they embrace, constantly condemning leaders who, despite taking unpopular or controversial decisions (ex. Trump, Merkel, Rajoy), represent democratic states.

Portugal is based on a government that may have seemed fragile at first, but which, through his leader António Costa, has known how to “sail by sight”, taking advantage of the economic situation, benefiting from the complacency of most media and, in most cases, with the complicity of the Left Block (neo-communists) and Communists, even when some of its ideological precepts are put into question.

This was what we could see before the tragedy of Pedrógão Grande and the armored robbery in Tancos. Now Costa can no longer escape the evidence - the inefficiency of  the State services is glaring.

We have a Prime Minister who disengages himself, or else he plays the victim against abusing for political ends by the right-wing opposition. When news are "good" it’s easy to appear and take all the credits for this, even when there is no merit in the achievements.

If pernicious situations occur we notice an awkward silence, or a lack of accountability following the disasters.

Nowadays, democracy is not in question in Portugal. What is at stake is the pernicious path it is taking by pursuing a way which rather serves the interests of oligarchy, or the state representatives.

There is a lack of requirements for a state that truly serves citizens with excellence and isn’t just a surreptitious Leviathan tax collector.

What should be done in the face of a government that only knows to take all the credits but doesn’t assume responsability for its inefficiency?

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: WORLD BANK GIVES SOME GOOD PROSPECTIVES

The World Bank (WB) has given praise to Mozambique, although it has made clear it awaits a conclusive commitment between the IMF and the Mozambican government and a clarification on hidden debts.

Even so, the WB has announced an investment of more than one billion euros for the sectors such as health, education, agriculture and infrastructures. The main focus is on subsistence agriculture, since the country is constantly subject to natural disasters, the result of climate change and also because the country needs production and productivity growth, mechanizing the agriculture. The WB, through his representative, also praised the role played by the private sector in the extractive industry, suggesting that the industry will also receive support in the coming years.

It was also emphasized that the sustainability of public debt remains under review. One shouldn’t forget the WB is concerned about the loans contracted by the public companies Proindicus, EMATUM and MAM - related to the sustainability of the public debt of Mozambique - a significant part of the funds which continues to allocate to State Budget are new loans which at some point the Mozambicans must pay back.

The "icing on the cake", the World Bank foresees a possible 4.5% growth in the Mozambican economy, after only 3.7% growth in 2016.

            That optimistic prediction will only be sustained if economic reforms are underway in key sectors, and if inflation continues to decline.

The bureaucracy, however, is still a strong hindrance to business development in Mozambique. This is reflected on the execution of businesses that are done very slowly, often also discouraging the private sector.

In any case, despite some more optimistic WB views, the government, in particular President Filipe Nyusi, has yet to catch up in the face of promises made.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: CLASH BETWEEN EU AND ANGOLAN GOVERNMENT

The Angolan government informed by its Foreign Affairs Minister Georges Chicoti that it doesn’t sign any memorandum of understanding with the European Union, related to the purpose of this organization being one of the observers in the general elections.

The justification is that the government doesn’t have to draw any kind of memorandum with other entities or individuals invited as observers - African Union (AU), Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries, Southern African Development Community.

There are already specific treaties between Angola and the AU plus the regional organization already mentioned in the scope of electoral observation, as was pointed out by the minister himself. He also enhanced Angola is not "shutting the door" to the EU, but that no organization gives lessons about elections to Angola.

With regard to the memorandum it provided for the circulation and visits of EU observers on national territory and made demands on security for its delegation. It should be recalled that about two months ago the EU had already announced that it intended to monitor the elections before the start of the election campaign.

The opposition reaction was obviously more than fair. If Angola wants to be taken more seriously in the international community on the democratic aspect and calls for free elections, it cannot drop out an observer like the EU.

The arrogance that so often accompanies this government, makes itself felt in this episode once again. What lessons does Angola have to receive over elections? Everything! The civil war resumed in 1992 and lasted another decade because UNITA (main opposition party) considered the general election fraudulent. What followed falls some way short of satisfying all the requirements for a fair and democratic election.

The credibility of the election is at stake. If you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear. In the name of transparency the Angolan government should listen to the opposition criticism.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: 2018 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS - FIRST NAMES AT STAKE

We are still far from the 2018 presidential elections. Michel Temer keeps striving to survive Brazilian politics bickering and turmoils until the term of office. His ultimate goal is being associated with promoting the most important reforms in the economic and welfare spheres.

We have been for a long time in a background where the "everything is valid" policy is a common feature in Brazil. About a third of MPs are involved in legal proceedings. For these reasons and others, ethics and morals, so vouted by some heralds of truth, they are often heard by the citizens in an almost insensitive way, or even with some disdain.

Lula da Silva, President of Brazil between 2003 and 2011, was sentenced to 9 months and a half in prison for crimes of passive corruption and money laundering. The execution of his arrest did not occur, which will allow him to appeal to this sentence in liberty. Not surprisingly, one of the first measures of the former president was to announce his candidacy for the 2018 presidential elections. Hence we may have an effective detention of Lula during his election campaign. Embarrassing or not, if Lula materialize his candidacy, he’s the favorite to win the elections, taking into account the several scenarios. That will depend on the decision of the Federal Regional Court; If it validatess Judge Sérgio Moro's sentence, Lula would become ineligible.

If Lula could not apply, then the Workers' Party (PT) would have another candidate, and his chances of winning would be very small. Fernando Haddad (ex-mayor of São Paulo) or Jaques Wagner (ex-governor of Bahia) are, for now, the most pressing possibilities. However, both don’t have the charisma and political force of Lula.

Another solution that could be adopted by the PT forces would be to ally with some leftist parties and support Ciro Gomes, a member of the Labor Democratic Party (former governor of Ceará and former minister). Ciro, wants to inherit Lula's electorate, in case he is not a candidate, stating his position on the fact that Lula was responsible for the division of Brazilian society. Curiously enough, it seems that he’ll have the support of a somewhat unusual political force in this context. The Chinese Communist Party!

One cannot also forget Marina Silva (former senator from PT), although She is gradually hardening the discourse against the left wing and seeking to attract some right-wing figures.

As for the right wing parties, the PMDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party) and the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democratic Party) also face the generalized lack of trust which exists regarding the parties. There is a great friction between elements belonging to the same political faction. The political agenda is already on the move - the 2018 campaign will revolve around who is in favor or against economic and welfare reforms.

Aécio Neves, the 2014 candidate, is practically out of the running, as he responds to lawsuits under the “Lava Jato operation”. Geraldo Alckmin, also a former candidate and current Governor of São Paulo, is a possibility, although his candidacy may not advance if the current Mayor of São Paulo, João Doria (a successful businessman with few years of politics) considered by some The new "goody two-shoes" of Brazilian politics will advance with a sustainable base support of the PSDB.

Finally, we have the deputy Jair Bolsonaro, a very controversial man, but well placed in the surveys conducted so far, and perhaps the only one that has so far “shadowed” Lula. Bolsonaro was already nicknamed Trump of Brazil, fascist, and even Brasilian’s savior. The fact Bolsonaro often emerges from the mainstream policy pattern has put some sectors of society quite apprehensive. He has sought to escape the association that many times his enemies make to the far-right populist movements.

Several other names will come up with certainty as we approach the elections. At all events, these elections will be certainly the most unpredictable that we will experience, with the possibility of having turnarounds and surprises at any moment.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: ALTICE GENERATES POLITICAL UNREST

The acquisition by ALTICE (a french multinational PT’s owner – Portugal Telecom) of Media Capital - proprietary of TVI (Independent Television) and other means of social communication, has generated strong criticism from Prime Minister António Costa. Several personalities already claimed, especially the main opposition leader, Pedro Passos Coelho (PPC) there had never been such a ferocious attack on a private company by a government.

Perhaps there might be some overreaction in PPC’s words highlighting this situation, as the largest attack on a private company. We just have to recall Jose Socrates and his altercations, when somebody or some company opposed to what he intended. Socrates was close to being able to fully dominate the banking and the media systems, according to his interests. It just did not fulfill “all the requirements”, due to the economic crisis in 2011.

Now again with the Socialist Party (SP) in power, and with former supporters and members of the Socrates’ Government occupying key positions, it seems there are signs that the SP intends to control the media in all its fullness.

What we have now and for a long time is a subservience of the portuguese media with regard the power instituted, namely when the Socialists are in government.

Obviously António Costa would not mention such a "heresy" that was highlighted here! He preferred to go the easy way. Supported by his allied parties, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party, he condemned a possible collective dismissal of workers by ALTICE – a common situation in this company which is known for its aggressive business policy. In addition, for the first time he had the courage to admit SIRESP’s (Integrated System of Emergency and Security Networks of Portugal) failures in the fire fighting, only to have the opportunity to criticize PT's communications.

ALTICE, for its part, does not seem to completely rule out a reduction of emplyees, enhancing that PT has more than double the workers compared to competitors  such as NOS and Vodafone. The idea of ​​the French multinational, as stressed by the President of PT "is continuing the process of labor streamlining”.

ALTICE’s business isn’t assured yet, and there will be a strong opposition from the State. The competitor NOS, has already outlined it is ready for the telecommunications and media “war”.

The portuguese have to understand that the rule of law requires freedom and impartiality of the media as well as fair competition and ruling out monopolies.

We don’t know yet what ALTICE's real intentions are. Nevertheless, if you want to promote an outstanding service with independent news, that is already a good step forward.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: FILIPE NYUSI: A PRESIDENT OF MANY PROMISES, BUT…

In the inauguration as President of Mozambique, the address given by Filipe Nyusi was filled with countless promises that the country would take the definitive path of growth, and that the Mozambican people would command their Destiny.

Two and a half years later, we saw that the overwhelming majority of these promises were just fallacies traditionally promoted by politicians. Even so, the President insists on praising that his mandate has brought Mozambique back on track.

In fact, what we’ve witnessed is a deterioration and degradation of the country's conditions in several areas. Contrary to what is publicised, the fourth President of Mozambique did not find the state coffers empty. Nyusi found about 71.5 billion Meticais in several public institutions bank accounts, which in violation of the law did not channel the amounts to the Single Treasury Account. This value has been used outside the state budget.

But beyond these aspects, where the State accounts are far from rigorous, we encounter other alarming situations:

• The 13th salary of State Employees was cut for the first time;

• Food prices have more than doubled since 2015;

• Cuts in subsidies for the elderly and poor.

In parallel with this we also have a pitiful situation regarding human rights, a situation already enhanced by some entities. The struggle for the establishment of a State of Human Rights, although often referred to by the President, has shown little or no progress over the past two years. The democratic rule of law has undergone considerable prominence, with emphasis on political intolerance, despite considerable progress in achieving peace. Let’s not forget also the resurgence of mass graves, whose existence was refuted by the Government.

If we link all this to the economic crisis which caused cuts in health, education, agriculture and the fact State agents who have illegally indebted the country haven’t been held responsible yet, we can’t really assume the fight against corruption has been efficient .

Hence, Mozambicans can’t fall into the trap over and over on false promises. The country, beyond making peace, needs more men of action who strive for development. Nice words and false promises for the future, doesn’t fill stomachs!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: THE HARMFUL DEPENDENCE ON OIL

Angola is a postponed country, torn by misery as a result of corruption. we are finding throughout the country infrastructures that in quality level leaves a lot to be desired.

When the war ended, Angola had a great opportunity to become a prosperous and developed country. Oil production has increased and prices have remained high for several years. This country had more than enough money to rebuild the way it wanted the landscape destroyed by the conflict.

However, the consequences of the reconstruction and oil boom was the self-enrichment of President José Eduardo dos Santos, his family and protégés.

According to Forbes magazine, Isabel dos Santos, the President's eldest daughter, became Africa's first billionaire with a fortune estimated at $ 3.3 billion.

The billions spent on reconstruction were miserably managed. A good part of it "disappeared" in certain people’s accounts, and in reality, little was done to ensure that the amount spent on reconstruction produced lasting benefits for the economy in Angola.

A recent study carried out by a prestigious university, about $ 189 billion was invested in opaque transactions abroad.

It is also worth noting that since 2002 (the year the war ended), US $ 120 billion has already been invested in reconstruction. On exports, we have a yield of almost US $ 600 billion, oil with the lion’s share, with 60% of the crude oil exported to China as a destination.

If we listen to Isabel dos Santos - chairman of Sonangol's board of directors, the accounts of this company, display fantastic results in 2016. However, if analyzed correctly, we realize that the largest company in Angola the accounts submitted are not transparent . The alleged miracle of Isabel dos Santos, who in 6 months solved the chaos of Sonangol and saved the oil company from bankruptcy is false. It's just a fake “magic trick”.

The Angolan model of exchanging oil money for infrastructure has generated some disadvantages. Business between Angola and its foreign partners lacked transparency and often resulted in projects of poor quality, either because of lack of supervision or simply because of corruption.

The reconstruction is in the hands of foreign companies; this leads to the Angolans and their companies have not inherited any specialization or skills.

As long as Angolans do not dominate their development strategy and do not rule out corruption, Angola will remain a poor country, although with enormous potential.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: SOME GOOD NEWS ABOUT THE ECONOMY

In respect of Brazilian politics, we watch daily degrading extravaganzaoin the several Brazilian institutions’ "stages". Economically, and with some surprise, the situation remains serene and fortunately there isn’t a pernicious influence of politics on the economy . In fact, growth prospects are moderately optimistic.

What is the reason for this situation? A large part of this phenomenon is due to excess liquidity in the global economy and the attraction of foreign investors to risk. As long as there is no worsening of financial conditions, the recovery of economic activity will continue, even moderate.

As a matter of fact, what is happening is that money doesn’t stop entering Brazil. Foreigners are much more optimistic than the Brazilians themselves, since for now, they believe there is a process of stabilization of the companies that is still going on and they have already adapted the operation and the costs to the new economic reality. Some companies inclusively are already generating profits.

According to some economists, this stability is based on the confidence of foreign investors in the current Brazilian economic team, which has been enjoying the market's sympathy. This scenario was far from being a reality in Dilma Rousseff's time.

Nevertheless, what explains better current situation in which the market has not reacted to the successive political crises, is the international environment, where global growth (Europe, Japan, USA), has shown itself.

Those who survived the beginning of the crisis were able to adjust financially to the moment and are taking advantage of the favorable international scenario, to produce more and to replenish stocks without increasing the cost base.

In short, regardless of the political crisis, the world conspires in Brazil’s favour.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: OUR DEFENSE WAS LOOTED

The robbery in Tancos that took place in the middle of the week, at first was showing on the news very timidly and it was not attributed much importance to the episode in question. At the weekend the media "woke up" to such a serious situation, and politicians reacted in a traditional way, coming up with assertions of the kind that this serious theft would be investigated to its final conclusion. Curiously, this event only became more notorious when a Spanish newspaper decided to publish in detail the stolen material.

This event is obviously extremely serious. It reveals  not only a terrible security system regarding war material, but also uncertainty about the real intentions of the assailants. Some sources are associating this action to the organized crime.

Another aspect that should be neither neglected nor forgotten, is that this kind of assault isn’t the first to occur in recent times. First we had the unit of Commands’ assault and then, more recently, the robbery of the deposit of weapons of the PSP – Public Security Police. In the face of such events, our rulers are having na embrassing behavior, and when it is acknowledged the seriousness of the facts, a series of investigations are taken, but there is an erosion of responsabilities.. For its part, the military have been criticizing the poor political management.

One thing is clear. The material stolen from Tancos, according to some experts already heard, can suit several terror scenarios, especially if it falls into terrorist hands. The explosives which were stolen, for instance, can detonate several armored cars and it issufficient to demolish a building.

It has also transpired that the place where the material was stored has been at least 20 hours without any kind of surveillance and the security cameras weren’t functioning properly.

All this security breach raised a strong national concern, as well as in the European Union. As much as we try to "brush this under the carpet" we are on the edge of facing scenarios that can range from shooting down planes to blowing up armored cars. It only depends on the imagination and skills of the group that keeps this material.

After the tragic fires of Pedrógão Grande, we find the portuguese State failing once again on protecting its citizens!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: SOVEREIGN DEBT RESTRUCTURING IS NO LONGER NECESSARY

The conclusions drawn by the Mozambican group of debt holders are good news for Philip Nyusi’s government.

According to them, the audit led by the consultancy firm Kroll ends up exempting the Government from the state guarantee given to the loans. From the outset there is a concern of this group to make a clear separation between them and the investors who put money in loans to the public companies (around 2 billion dollars as previously mentioned).

With this decision by the Mozambique's debt securities holders, the Mozambican Government would have a considerable increase in financial capacity to serve the debt in the amount of $ 850 million over the next 5 years. The loss would be borne by those who lent the money to Mozambican companies.

This situation, if it occurs as it is now expected, will cause great relief in the Mozambican citizens’ economies. However, the Mozambican justice system must continue investigations and assess the extent of the loans contracted, therefore find the culprits, so that this occurence will not recur in the future.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations