ANGOLA: JOÃO LOURENÇO – THE FIRST "ADVENTURES" IN THE PRESIDENCY

It may prove challenging the task President João Lourenço has to face for his first term. It is well-known a lot of things are going the wrong way in Angola, and this is mainly due to the bad governance of his predecessor, who not pleased enough with almost 40 years as President, still keeps himself as MPLA’s president safeguarding the revenues that he has been raising along his “reign”.

Actually, although José Eduardo dos Santos (JES) is "retired" from the presidency his hallmark is quite clear - the influence his daughter Isabel dos Santos still has on Angola's most important company – Sonangol - remains obvious as well as the recent motion supporting JES and promoted by the party itself.

Angola, at least formally, is a democratic rule of law. The rules are dictated by the Constitution, and the President only owes obedience to it and the Law. However, it seems that in the present context, there are several questions about who actually commands the country. JES or João Lourenço? Was there actually a hand-over of power to Lourenço? The Law proves that two-headed presidencies are not possible or shared "de facto".

There are, however, some signs that can bring us some hope, in light of what Lourenço promised whilst the electoral campaign to fight corrupt acts. That was even pointed out by the main opposition leader, Isaias Samakuva, though with due caution in the words uttered, as if to say "wait and see".

Carlos Aires da Fonseca Panzo, for instance, was exonerated from the position of Secretary of Economic Affairs of the Presidency. This happened when João Lourenço became aware the Office of the Attorney General of the Republic had instituted a criminal investigation, based on facts denounced by Swiss authorities and that they could constitute crimes under Angolan and Swiss law, namely money laundering.

With this instant resignation, there is at least a clear breakthrough in the fight against corruption. Will the present-day muddle be put in check?

A radical cut with the past is vital, so that the Angolan people know unequivocally the development track.

Yet, it is critical the MPLA supports Lourenço bluntly, and he becomes independent and autonomous from JES and his partners, and actually fulfills the main goals outlined during the campaign and afterwards.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

DR CONGO: A SEAT ON HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL - SHAMELESS!

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has won a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. This could be a prank, but such matters should be taken seriously.

Following a UN General Assembly vote, DRC along with 14 other countries will join a 47-member "club" from January next year until the end of 2020.

Despite the huge criticisms from various political quarters, due to the “Dantesque” record the Joseph Kabila’s government presents, constantly disrespecting human rights, the vote in the Assembly gave DRC 151 votes.

            The DRC has been devastated by a series of conflicts throughout its history, the result of its endless natural resources, which has carried out countries and warring factions in permanent harassment for the pursuit of power.

One mustn’t forget President Joseph Kabila refused to resign from the presidency in December 2016 and this situation has been responsible for a considerable increase of violence. In the last year, the number of refugees has spread in the central and eastern part of the country - 1.5 million.

Government security forces are accused of being responsible for most of the violence in the Kasai region, where around 5000 people were killed and almost 100 mass graves were identified.

In such complex and vicious arena one may observe only in a full year, what kind of ethics does this UN human rights council have? Should we believe it is a credible UN body at the global level?

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL - THE UNCERTAINTY OF INVESTMENT RESUMPTION

Despite the crisis that Brazil is undergoing, we’ve already revealed some good news, mainly highlighting the gradual growth of the Brazilian economy; notwithstanding the constant turmoil regarding Brazilian politics.

In the last report on Brazil, we also emphasized that politics could not live unaware of the economy; the country to make progress, would have to overcome the various mess and disturbances that are before all of us.

However, although the economy has shown some signs of emerging from the recession, at the investment level we still don´t have big prospects for the near future. If we continue to have a perilous investment, Brazil is bound to have a new "chicken flight" growth.

The low level of confidence from economic agents and the hesitant resumption of production factors are usual in times of crisis, but the most decisive factor for Brazil still having low investment levels is fundamentally due to the unprecedented level of political uncertainty.

Indeed, the country has already experienced difficult times at the political level with disastrous consequences for Brazilian society, however, the reality is that this recurring climate of uncertainty causes investment decisions to be delayed and investors adopt a posture of " wait and see ".

The climate of mistrust increased mainly after the media broadcast the conversation between businessman Joesley Batista and President Temer.

In the coming months, investments may begin showing some positive rates if there are no more political crises

Yet, the great concern that is pointed out today refers to the scenario the country faces when Michel Temer’s mandate ends. Though some presidential names already showing up, uncertainty and doubt dominates the direction Brazil will take, so that 2018 is still considered by most economists a rather unexpressive year in the resumption of investments.

 Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: LOCAL ELECTIONS - SOCIALISTS ARE THE BIG WINNERS?

António Costa and his socialist party deserve congratulations. Not for the country's recent economic performance. This is questionable –it depends on the financial point of view and also who should get the merits. But rather because the results in the local elections brouht the Socialist Party to historical levels.

On the other hand, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has had a very poor result, with the two most important urban centres, Lisbon and Oporto, two paradigms of this electoral catastrophe.

As for the left-wing parties that support the socialists in the so-called "contraption government", we find two diverging results. The Left Block, a little more emphatic in general, with some prominence in the capital city, but still with little expression in this kind of elections, remembering it didn’t win any council. Regarding the Communist Party, traditionally strong in local elections, it had a tremendous disappointment, since it lost several important city-councils, such as Almada, Barreiro, Beja, Moura or Peniche. This loss was so obvioust that, contrary to the past, this time his General Secretary admitted the terrible disaster of this election.

Those who have reasons to celebrate the election results are the center-right supporters, led by Asunção Cristas. It got one more council than in 2013 and a fantastic 20,57% in Lisbon electing 4 city councilors.

António Costa can rejoice with this result, but it shouldn’t be too dazzled. In the upcoming elections, he may face a more fragile SDP, but if he wants to continue with the far left support, he will have to rely on a stronger Communist party. Or else renounces from this bizarre alliance and seeks to achieve a result that allows him to govern alone. He needs to call for early elections and take advantage of the current weakness of Social Democrats and left-wing parties. The recent distribution of salary increases in the civil service, retired people and pensioners has brought benefits to the socialists in the election results. But how long will  last this policy of distributing benefits to the civil service?

Also notworthy, the Socialists, despite having won in Lisbon, lost the absolute majority and in Oporto the result was a bit disappointing.

The SDP led by Pedro Passos Coelho (PPC), although not totally surprising the results, turns out to be a great disappointment, because they were even lower than expected. It may not yet be the political "death" of PPC, as he may still want to defeat António Costa again in the next parliamentary elections. Yet, his position in the party is considerably vulnerable.

3 big winners:

Rui Moreira – He was elected as an independent and wins for the second time in Oporto with an absolute majority. Looks like he’s Oporto‘s John Snow "the King in the North".

Isaltino Morais - won Oeiras once again as an independent and with absolute majority, having spent previously a few years in prison, convicted of corruption, money laundering and tax fraud.

Assunção Cristas - the leader of the centrists benefited from the poor choice made by the SDP in Lisbon and aimed for a historic result for her party reinforcing the leadership.

Finally, though we may be too distracted by the elections or the economic growth, which is occasionally praised by the media, we cannot smother the worrying information given by the Bank of Portugal that the total value of public debt has increased once again in August, and surpassed for the first time the 250 billion euros!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations