ANGOLA: ANGOLAN JUSTICE FROM BAD TO WORSE

The ruling MPLA government led by José Eduardo dos Santos (JES) has led the country to a quite disastrous state;the result of a mismanagement of institutions exacerbated by corruption.

Education, health and justice are three good examples of how the State has not function, or has worked terribly badly, leaving the citizens at their mercy, the outcomeq of systemic corruption.

With regard to the Angolan justice system, the Paramount sector of any country, we have recently noticed the problems with the Attorney General of the Republic (AGR) regarding the strike decision of the National Union of Legal and Administrative Technicians of the AGR. It was also reported a separate notification required by the Association Judges of Angola concerning the executive power. From what has been heard, this request has led to a "witch hunt", within the judicial magistracy, by elements attached to power. Besides these panoply of inoperative and harassment acts, there is a tremendous lack of conditions in prisons.

Against this background, a strike was called by the Supreme Court officials, starting in July 2017. Basically, they defend leveling wage, promotions, professional training, health and wage complements. In addition, they denounce the absolute lack of means to work - lack of paper, stamps, information technologies, bathrooms, printer cartridges, etc.

These claims appear to be very similar to other strikes already carried out. The corruption of power instituted, put the Santos’ family as one of the wealthiest families in Africa and its subservient elite is salso very wealthy. On the other hand, this scenario led to the State bankruptcy. Nowadays, there is no money to meet the compromises that ensure the public services operation.

It all boils down to vague government responses, or decisions postponements invoking the lack of money.

It is clear that the Government had a good budget, more than enough to offer citizens good services in the area of ​​education, health and justice. The problem is that almost all the money is being consumed by corruption. If we have 500 and we take 400 for corruption, there are only 100 left for the rest!

Thus, it’s urgent to find out where this money is (much of it is abroad), and “repatriate” it to Angola, so that the country can have respectable public services.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: TEMER AND THE NEXT CHALLENGES

Michel Temer is being able to survive the political "earthquake" that devastated the country last May (Joesley's recordings).

His base of support is becoming more and more fragile, thus the threats and possibilities the Government may fall is increasing day by day. Many times one is left with the perception that its dismissal would be the most beneficial solution, so that Brazil is not constantly called a postponed country associated with corruption. Indirect elections might represent the most viable scenario, although this is also quite debatable and dangerous.

Yet, as Temer is committed in taking his mandate till the end, let us watch his chief challenge. The one which stands out is, undoubtedly, convincing Brazilian public opinion that he is more concerned about approving the reforms needed to reactivate the economy than gathering only the votes necessary to preserve his threatened mandate.

The recent Senate Social Affairs Committee's rejection of labor reform does not compromise approval of the proposal, but it is a bad signal. In fact, what we are witnessing lately is a government somewhat disinterested in matters and demobilized for voting. Thus, Temer needs to gather his Governement "troops", in order to gain support in the Congress and to win the next political combats.

If these situations still depend on him, there are others he will be a simple spectator. An example of this is the complaint that the Attorney General, Rodrigo Janot, will make to the Federal Supreme Court, accusing him of passive corruption.

Another situation in which Temer has no absolute control, concerns the plea bargain of Lucio Funaro (alleged operator of his party) and Rodrigo Rocha Loures, Temer’s friend, taken aback by a suitcase of $R 500,000.

Finally the exit of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party from the allied base of the Government, which can trigger a stampede.

If the President wishes to regain trust, he must approve the labor and social welfare reforms as soon as possible. For those who’d liket o go down in history as the "reformist" President, current situation is hazardously shaky.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: HELL IN THE "CONTRAPTION" COUNTRY

In my last article I concluded by pointing out that luck doesn’t always last. Sadly, the fortune is over for the Government of António Costa and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. The tragedy of the fires that shocked the whole country and the world left a very strong mark on all of us. Dozens of dead and hundreds of wounded have put the country reflecting on its annual "Civil War".

This time the number of victims reached catastrophic proportions, the burned area corresponds to about 40,000 football fields - mourning radiates in the souls of all portuguese.

The fire of Pedrógão-Grande, seems to have had the most extraordinary origins (although there are already those who refute this), the unfolding of this phenomenon may have assumed unexpected profile in the “whims” of nature, however, one had already figured out there were serious failures of civil protection. In the face of such hot days, and as a place considered a "powder keg", no means were prepared for such an event (always frequent on the mainland), the necessary precautions weren’t taken, and the most obvious was to control motoring. Contrary to what President Marcelo hastily pointed out at the outset – “everything possible has been done”, after all, it did not correspond to reality.

The wave of global simpathy and regret of portuguese politicians in the face of such tragedy was felt (it was not really the ideal time to point out the culprits and to do politics at the beginning). The fire had to be controlled and the protection of civilians was a must. However, one realized immediately from the second day  this time affections and hugs were not enough to appease the revolt of portuguese society.

Thus, as we have seen in the past, good news has always a person which is responsible. In this case of tragedy, those responsible and guilty do not assume and we notice immediately that the oligarchs are accomplices among themselves, not pointing out those responsible.

In this case it is imperative to do politics. There are guilty, there are responsibilities. And although Marcelo and António Costa are not to blame for this tragedy, they are the top leaders in the national context, so they should at the very least apologize to the portuguese. Theresa May, who has been a disaster as prime minister, acknowledged the state's failure in the London fire last week and has already apologized to citizens.

Unfortunately, tragedies can happen. The imponderables, the so-called natural phenomenon, played a huge role in the propagation of fire. The widely broadcast planning and land management is appalling. The land, with fewer rangers, is a constant danger. However, the state has far from fulfilling its role. Many have already guessed that such a tragedy could happen. Regrettably, our rulers did not have a proactive but reactive attitude.

Televisions "bombarded" us with experts of this and that, trying to explain many of the situations and issues that were emerging. It seems that Portugal has many experts on anything and everything! What we have been able to observe throughout the various stages of the fire, was the lack of coordination among public entities, and the lack of preparation for such a phenomenon. Definitely Portugal, is not properly prepared to face natural catastrophes, especially with this government's contraption.

Some people and organizations will have to be held accountable, The NRG (National Republican Guard), and the communications network ISESNP (Integrated System of Emergency and Safety Networks in Portugal), are already, targeted and with a torrent of criticism.

Now it seems we have some politicians, including our top leaders, looking to rush new legislation that seeks to correct what was wrong. Much has been wrong. Yet, what was more noticed was the imprevidence and the lack of coordination. The revolt, sadness and pain is in all of us and we got the clear idea the country is committed to its fate. Good fortune, seems no longer follow up António Costa and Marcelo. After all, what is the State for?

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: MOZAMBICAN GOVERNMENT VS CIVIL SOCIETY AND IMF

At the last forum of the Development Observatory in Mozambique, Civil Society warned the Government that the  2017 state budget increased funds for poorly managed public companies, but in contrast, reduced health 11.5%, cut nearly 20 % In education, allocated 2.75% less for agriculture, and still reduced water and sanitation funds in public works.

Another issue highlighted by Civil Society is the fact there is a great reliance on external financing in many sectors of activity.

In the agricultural sector, it was also realized that lately there has been little or no progress. This is basically due to the low technical assistance of the extensionists to the family production coupled with natural calamities and the military-political conflict.

Regarding the dispute between the IMF and the Mozambican State, the Finance and Economy Minister, Adriano Maleiane, pointed out at the Observatory the IMF only suspended its financial support because Mozambique did not provide correct information on the stock of its public debt . He then developed a rhetoric in favor of the State's efforts to correct the mistakes of the past and that the State's accounts and budgets are being corrected so that in the future Mozambique will respect the criteria advocated by the IMF.

The IMF representative, also present at the Observatory, confirmed what has already been mentioned from the outset: "at the moment these debts (companies already referred to in a previous article - Ematum, Proindicus and Mozambique Asset Management) were taken, didn’t comply with certain criteria for the administration of public resources, or administration of public debt in an appropriate manner; then that matters to the IMF. "

Thus, a perfect harmony between Civil Society, IMF and the Mozambican Government is still far from being achieved, however, as is the case of almost all Governments, regardless of their ideology, in compelling situations such as these, they claim all efforts are being taken to correct errors and restore the State's respectability – in this case, in relation to Civil Society and the IMF.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: BRAZIL HAS ALREADY LOST R$ 123 BILLION WITH CORRUPTION SCAMS

The Federal Police (PF) has launched a truly obscene and monstrous number related to corruption scams in Brazil. It has already lost about R$ 123 billion related to the systematic corruption that is constantly devastating the country. This figure only refers to the values ​​calculated by the FP. This value is based on the 2,057 operations carried out in the last 4 years.

Surprisingly, or not, the “Lava-Jato” operation, despite being the most well known operation linked to corruption scams, is far from being the main responsible for the loss of the most significant values. About half of this amount - R $ 53.8 billion, corresponds to fraud in pension funds (Greenfield operation) - four times the Lava-Jato scam (R $ 13.8 billion).

FP has done its job. Now what has the Attorney General's Office done? And the judicial system?

The sort of organized crime involved is about various types of scams: fraudulent contracts, evasive taxes, financial and cyber crimes, misappropriation and environmental damage. All combined for bribe payments.

Notwithstanding this terrible news, already awaited by Brazilian society, the values ​​recovered in these operations, have increased from year to year. In the same way losses have been avoided, as the FP has redoubled its attention, seeking to "stifle" these criminal organizations.

According to businessman Joesley (owner of JBS - meat  processing company), Lula da Silva and his party, the PT, were responsible for the institutionalization of Corruption. The other main parties have simply reproduced this model of corruption, but the PMDB (President Michel Temer party) is "the most dangerous gang in the country."

Although Joesley was the great political “tsunami” of Brazil, according to the State of São Paulo, after a month there is a surprising calm in the economy. The main goal is to keep the economy as far away as possible from political turmoil.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: JOSÉ EDUARDO DOS SANTOS PRESIDENT EMERITUS

 The longtime President José Eduardo dos Santos (JES) will become President Emeritus after a proposal of his party, the MPLA. In power since 1979, one might consider this honor a well-deserved title. Regrettably this can never be argued by those who value participatory democracy or advocate a just, equitable society and in which the state favors the well-being of its citizens.

According to a bill to be voted next week at the National Assembly, it is anticipated that a former president (Eduardo dos santos will be shortly a former President) have protocol treatment, immunities and a special regime of protection and security.

The former President shall enjoy a "proper forum for criminal purposes or civil liability, for acts unconnected with the exercise of his functions, before the Supreme Court, upon expiry of the provisions of the law."

It is also proposed that JES or another former head of state receive a lifetime pension corresponding to 90% of the salary of his last year in office.

His wife will also be entitled to certain monetary privileges (70% of the salary of the Head of State or his pension) and the rest of the family benefits related to housing, vehicles, medical care, travelling, etc.

All this and a few more situations are foreseen in this bill proposed by the JES’ party. It is an obscenety the money already accumulated by Santos family over the years. Really, JES, without any embarrassment, is trying to ensure he will have any kind of problem after leaving presidency.

The Santos’ family is getting increasingly richer and the vast majority of the Angolan population is increasingly depleted, enjoying miserable state services, or simply having no chance to benefit from them.

The flattery of its maximum leader prevails in Angola,yet, in relation to this title of President emeritus, some critical voices are already heard, even within the MPLA itself; an example is the MPLA MP Irene Neto, daughter of Agostinho Neto (1st President of Angola).

The elections are scheduled for August 23. JES seeks to reinforce its legacy, but the set of injustices that we have verified over the years, makes opinions be increasingly discordant to the power of the MPLA and democratic alternatives are a more achievable and credible reality.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: THE PARTNERSHIP MARCELO - COSTA

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and Prime Minister António Costa attended a number of events in Brazil, due to Portugal’s Day celebration (10th June).

As usual they both spread their optimism and affection for the Portuguese community in Brazil and was also welcomed by the Brazilian population with a great deal of acceptance and support.

Michel Temer was about to meet with the two portuguese maximum authorities, however, owing to to a "situation in the program", this meeting was canceled. Perhaps he wished to avoid the embarrassment of, in his own country to be hooted, unlike Marcelo, who receives a great ovation.

First of all, I would like to enhance and congratulate the initiative taken by the competent bodies to celebrate the day of Portugal with the Portuguese emigrant communities, which have so often been forgotten.

With regard to the partnership and apparent good understanding between Marcelo and Costa, everything seems to run smoothly. In fact, the current situation is favoring these two figures. Let us not forget, however, the past and the different political paths of both. Marcelo was leader of the Social Democratic Party, he is the son of a prominent figure of the old regime - the “Estado Novo” (authoritarian regime), and has always been associated with the Portuguese right. On the other hand, António Costa, belongs to the Socialist Party and is dangerously following some paths of Socratic politics.

Supposedly they support different political ideologies, but, as they say, the maximum interest of the country unites them, and Marcelo routinely nod things like a clockwork monkey to Costa's policies, with rare exceptions.

Curiously, Marcelo never supported Pedro Passos Coelho, (former Prime Minister) leader of the Social Democratic Party in the same way. He often harshly criticized, especially when he was a political commentator.

It will be curious to see to what extent the current Marcelo - Costa aliance will remain, since both are known for their "gentleness" and political diplomacy, but they are also famous, when it is in their interest, to contradict themselves with some of their positions. This kind of conjuncture and fortune, unfortunately do not last forever!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: THE RECAPITALIZATION OF MOZABANCO

A brief history of Mozabanco (MB) can be easily viewed on its website. From the outset we get the feeling we are dealing with a successful private banking institution. If we consult an organization website it is obvious we observe an optimistic view.

This bank started its activity in 2008 and has been accumulating notoriety since the beginning, with its ambitious expansion based on a rapid growth in a sustainable way, technological modernization and infrastructures, as well as betting on constant innovation. It has been progressing in the main cities of the country, where economic growth is more expected, and the bank is expected to broaden its horizons according to the requirements of its customers.

All this history and demarcation of objectives for a near future makes us realize a successful institution has risen, and that at least this private bank would be destined to success.

However, the recapitalization announced is provoking controversy, taking into account that the Pension Fund Management Company of the Bank of Mozambique (Kuhanha) employees became MB's majority shareholder. According to some analysts, this type of financial engineering is designed to maintain its sustainability, so as not to lose all the money invested so far. As this bank was bankrupt, the Central Bank ended up intervening to prevent selling off and especially so that the bank did not fall into the hands of investor perpetrators.

In any case, we have a situatin which indicates conflict of interests, although this operation needs further clarification.

Kuhanha aims to pay the Bank of Mozambique (BM) retirement employees and invest in the capital, financial among other markets. The Chairman of this management company is the president of the BM, so many people question whether there will be independence and impartiality in the supervision of MB, taking into account that bank supervision workers belong to Kuhanha and are an interested party.

They should inject about € 120 Million in the recapitalization of MB and will have a participation of 80%. The remaining 20% ​​will be held by Novo Banco (Portugal) - 10% and the Mozambique Capital - 10%.

It remains to be seen whether this whole process is truly transparent, as is ensured by BM. By 2016, MB was Mozambique's fourth largest bank with more than 90,000 customers.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: THE ELECTIONS AND THE NEC

As the presidential elections is getting closer, several questions have arisen about the impartiality and reputation of the entity responsible for this suffrage - the National Elections Commission (NEC).

This body is responsible for safeguarding the elections’ authenticity. Opposition parties have expressed their discontent given the attitude of the NEC. UNITA (main opposition party) has placed greater emphasis on the transparency of the elections, since "the NEC insists on pursuing a posture that brings into question peace and democracy."

This body has always been accused of being associated with the interests of the ruling party, the MPLA. We can immediately identify some issues that call into question the NEC’s transparency.

Since the Electoral Law and Constitution are very clear regarding electoral processes, it’s necessary to move towards institutionalization based on the law, not seeking the balances between laws. They are mandatory rules that have to be applied, period.

Afterward, with the Sinfic’s nomination as one of the companies responsible for the provision of services in the election, the NEC is again under observation, as it isn’t a company that pleases the opposition. It doesn’t bring any credibility or guarantee of independence to the Angolan electoral process. This company is Angolan (although based in Portugal) and in the past has already been accused of collaborating in the adulteration of the results in favor of the MPLA. Furthermore, Sinfic has recently experienced a rough financial period (almost insolvent), therefore is still very vulnerable to achieve satisfactory performance in such an important and sensitive task. It also raises many doubts about its shareholder board, and there are even suspicions that important generals of the regime hold capital in this company.

Finally, there is a demand by UNITA for an audit of the majority age citizens file. There’s a very large difference between the total voters that attended 2012 election, with the number of current voters (according to a recent censos.

It is crucial for Angola an independent and neutral NEC. The direction taken till now means the elections will be no more than a farce, but it’s only for show, confirming a fake democratic regime.

Is there any possibility to retify things, so that NEC gain credibility?

Indeed, the electoral process needs to have observers from the international community, yet that depends on the Angolan executive.

João Dias - Senior Consultant