MOZAMBIQUE: IMF FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE LESS LIKELY

The Economist magazine, more specifically its "Intelligence Unit", reports that the possibility of the IMF hitting a financial assistance to Mozambique has become less likely, since this Fund requires a full disclosure of debt audits.

The IMF's tougher attitude is not surprising, as attempts by the authorities to block the investigation have been a well-known fact. Thus, a number of important issues remained unanswered in a very brief and vigorously drafted report issued by the Government.

The IMF requires a complete and transparent report clearly identifying where the loans went to.

It should be recalled that the Government agreed with an independent audit in order to ascertain the debt issue, namely how the loans were secretly contracted by two public companies.

This new setback seems difficult to resolve as the IMF doen’t want to be accused again of not paying enough attention to corruption issues and for not requiring more transparency, namely when the events took place.

In addition, The Economist highlights that the modest recovery of the economy cannot be ignored and the provision of some external financing has diminished the willingness of Mozambique to make concessions to the MFI.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: POLITICS CANNOT FORGET THE ECONOMY

That Brazil still has great potential and continues to be a shelved power, is no longer a novelty.

Whereas the political crisis plagued Brazil since 2014, the South American giant has lost perhaps the best chance to change from an emerging country to a developed global power. As is well known, emergent is not synonymous with sustained development, equal opportunities or even a uniform social welfare.

We keep living in a miserable political environment, with President Michel Temer surviving several political "earthquakes" of accusations - corruption and criminal organization - promoted by Rodrigo Janot until recently the Commander of the Attorney General's Office.

Yet, as the “Global SProspective” has repeatedly pointed out, the political swamp in which Brazil finds itself, goes from the President to all political and economic quarters, and doesn’t suggest a bright future in the short term.

In any case, the present scenario thoroughly outlined by Temer, will surely finish his term.

Once the global environment remains favorable to emerging markets, it is essential Brazil continues pursuing its potential growth by adopting an agenda of economic adjustments and structural reforms. The same has happened with other countries, such as Mexico, Argentina or India. However, Brazil can’t always count on the benefit of a favorable international context. It is crucial that the country considerably improves its policy framework so as to proceed the reforms.

Any emerging country has only a dynamic economy if it can at least stabilize its political-partisan quarrels. Surprisingly, Brazil has been able to evolve economically, despite the steady political embarrassment. Despite the proliferation of legal charges against many political figures, the government has been able to approve some measures that tend to boost the dynamism of the country's economy.

Therefore, it’s imperative to solve the most pressing political problems and then deal with some of the well-known problems, such as fiscal imbalance, inefficient tax structure, excessive tax waivers, very high wages in some public sectors, fragile educational system, widespread corruption and excessive state intervention in the economy.

Ultimately the, approval of a broad-based political reform in Brazil in the coming years is crucial, including also a reorganization of the electoral legislation. Only this way we may winess a more dynamic economy, which can never be disconnected from its eternal foundation: Politics.

 Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: PEOPLE LOST CONFIDENCE IN THE MPLA

The title of this article says it all, but if the truth be told is innacurate. The angolan population, a long time ago don’t trust on the MPLA.

These presidential elections only confirmed some of the scenarios that we have been emphasizing here.

The MPLA no longer represents the path and the solution that the Angolan people aspire to. The ordinary citizen urges changes aimed at meeting the most basic needs of the population. With so great potential the country has always been identified, it is painful and disgusting Angola to be the country with the highest infant mortality rate in the world. Basic needs are not "satiated" satisfactorily in most areas. Yet, this doesn’t seem to bother the Angolan MPLA elite.

After the National Electoral Commission (NEC) validated the electoral results, we had the confirmation the Government party is in decline and can only be held in power by artífices which are increasingly easily exposed.

- The NEC is at the service of the Government party;

- The same applies to the Constitutional Court;

- The counting of votes was manipulated;

- The opposition don’t accept the results justifiably and appealed to the competent bodies, calling for non-military intervention;

- It was recalled through facts that Jonas Savimbi in 1992, had accepted the election results;

- João Lourenço will continue to serve José Eduardo dos Santos’ (JES) interests.);

- And "got the qualified majority" a key for the MPLA to keep running the country at their pleasure;

- Isabel dos Santos and Zenu, sons of JES keep holding key positions in the Angolan economy;

- The Portuguese political class, for the most part, remains accomplice of the political farce the MPLA has been forging over the years.

These are some of the lessons one can draw from the Angolan elections. The farce and theft was exposed, however, fortunately we observed a more nonconformist opposition, at the same time espousing civility. We also acnowledged the  Angolans can’t stand such injustices any longer.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations