Thursday, November 24, 2016

BRAZIL: "Politicians in prison: who's next?"

Arrests in Brasil are happening at a frenetic pace with a big mixed feeling of enthusiasm and revolt from population.
In September we had the arrests of Guido Mantega (revoked afterwards - former Lula and Dilma finance minister) and Antonio Palocci (former Lula finance minister).
Last month, Eduardo Cunha's arrest (one of the most influential politicians over the last 20 years and former chamber of deputies president)   caused many concern on some  political channels. If a plea bargain goes along with Cunha (it seems Cunha knows many things) a new political "earthquake" may devastate Brazil again.
This November there was the imprisonment of two former Rio de Janeiro governors. Antonio Garotinho (accused of vote buying) and Sergio Cabral (allegedly diverted public funds from government). The estimated loss is around $R 200 million reals.
The Media went crazy by having a lot of news which allows them to "spout its poison" wherever they want. People are claiming for exemplary punishments. Judges build prestige each time some prominent politician is put into jail. Sérgio Moro, the judge and main protagonist of the "lava jato" operation is gaining unprecedent prestige. Some points can be raised. Will we witness fair, prompt and effective trials? Will the judiciary system be reliable and exempt? Who's next in prison?



Tuesday, November 15, 2016

BRAZIL:Trump got the election. Is it good for Brazil?"

BRAZIL:"Trump got the election. Is it good for Brazil?"

Economy and trading - The Republican party stands for free trade. That would be great for Brazil if it also followed that path. Yet Trump has already enhanced that american trading deals must be renegotiated in order to preserve jobs and reduce the American deficit with the rest of the world.
Immigration - Trump statements over immigration issues have been controversial and rather explored by  media. One must understand it's important to differentiate legal and illegal immigrants. And most of all, those who have criminal records. The entry of new immigrants will depend much on the chances one has of being successful in the US.
Brazil-USA ties: over the last years there was some distance between the two countries. Hillary and Trump didn't speak much about Brazil or even spoke clearly about latin American policies. T rump has been demonstrating signs of unpredictability. Brazil-US ties are diverse. Temer surely wants a more attractive country to International investment, thus the US is a key player to this "new" Brazil, regardless the president's name.
The uncertainty after Trump's election and his political economic guidelines generated the sudden surge of the US dollar. It's over R$ 3,40 even with the intervention by Central Bank.








Friday, November 11, 2016

BRAZIL:"The university admission exam (enem) is just one more warning Brazilian society is awfully segmented"


Last weekend the Enem was held  in all Brazilian states.  Some students weren't able to do it now, because the school or university where the exam should take place was occupied by some students and other individuais who are against the governamental measure which aims restricting federal public spending. 
As usual, there were those who were for and against this assessment test. Some students arrived late to the exam, thus weren't able to do it. The media and some assholes turn this situation into a show event, humiliating the laggards. The compositon subject was about "ways to fight religious intolerance in Brazil". Intolerance is by itself rising in Brazil.
Enem is just one more episode demonstrating how Brazil is divided. Nowadays, what stands out in Brazil is the sharp division among brazilian society, particularly a more radical confrontation between Left and Right.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

BRAZIL:"Local elections 2nd round: trends confirmed":

Local elections second round have just confirmed what we have been glimpsing in the first:
● The sharp decline of the workers party (PT). Consequently the conservative forces are gradually gaining ground. This isn't only a consequence of the "lava jato" operation.
● PMDB (Brazilian democratic movement) increase; nevertheless it lost Rio de Janeiro and the old political establishment has seen better days.
● PSDB (Brazilian social democracy party) also improved its results. This 2nd round acknowledges Geraldo Alckmin as the strongest party candidate for the next presidential elections.
● The multitude of  parties in these elections is showing how society is fragmented.