BRAZIL: FEDERAL INTERVENTION ON PUBLIC SECURITY IN RIO DE JANEIRO. YES ABSOLUTELY!

This measure is a must, although it comes rather late and it is not ambitious enough.

The presidential decree that determines federal intervention in the State of Rio de Janeiro was approved by the Chamber of Deputies.

Thus, after the approval of the Senate, public security in Rio leaves the state level, passing to the Federal, which will imply the Armed Forces being responsible for public security in this state.

What does this mean? That the Army has absolute power to manage public security, controlling the Civil Police, Military Police, fire brigade and prison administration, until the end of this year.

Will it work? It depends very much on the strategy to be followed and the means available to tackle crime. The Government, as usual, has been hampered in communicating such a measure, especially with the Armed Forces themselves, in addition to being accused by the left political forces of being engaged in another "smokescreen" related to the social security reform, which is slow moving forward, or simply seeks to take advantage of this situation for the October elections.

This is only a first step, but it is far from representing the ideal solution.

Rio de Janeiro is transformed into a state of drug trafficking, it is hostage to the thughs that are everywhere - in the favelas, in the legislative, executive and judicial power, in the public ministry, or even in the civil and military police where the organized crime laws and repulsive complicity between several authorities prevails.

Criminal cleansing is urgent, vital and imperative! It comes rather late, and this intervention doesn’t mean we will achieve success. Yet, it is a step forward!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

DR CONGO: PAY ATTENTION INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY!

DR Congo (DRC) is on the headlines again and for the worst reasons. Rebels in eastern DRC have carried out one of the deadliest attacks against UN forces in recent years. At least 14 blue helmets and five congolese soldiers have been killed and 53 injured. The dead or injured blue helmets are for the most part from Tanzania. Scores of armed groups operate in this African country, especially in the largely lawless eastern Kivu and Kasai regions.

Monusco (United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DR Congo), established in 2010, is the largest peacekeeping operation in the world and aims to control the actions of various armed groups in conflict. It has 16,500 blue helmets and more than 1,350 policemen. The attack has not yet been claimed, but is believed to have been perpetrated by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), the rebel islamic group formed in the neighbouring Uganda back in the nineties which has been increasingly active over the past 6 months. However, there are suspicions that other groups are involved.

This country has never found peace in its recent history for many reasons: disputes over natural resources, territorial claims, ethnic and tribal rivalries, etc. Now with the dismantling of the Daesh in Syria and Iraq, small groups are forming and spreading everywhere, supporting terrorist groups already well established in some regions, as is the case of the ADF. It seems that we may have another explosive "ingredient" in the already tumultuous and perilous Central African country - Islamic extremism.

Therefore, more than the firmness and assertive words from the UN Secretary General, António Guterres condemning this attack that described it as a "war crime", a strategy is urgently needed and thus a more effective action in this region, and paying close attention to the type of organization (its main traits) Daesh is developing in other regions.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: LULA, THE POLITICAL ANIMAL WITH EXTRA LIVES

The presidential elections will only take place next october, however, it is almost unquestionable that Brazil has never been as hostage to a good result for the benefit of its people as now.

Power-linked parties such as the PMDB, PT or the PSDB are increasingly discredited as they are all associated with corruption and money laundering schemes through some of their top exponents. As Geraldo Halckmin (Governor of the State of São Paulo and possible candidate for the presidency -PSDB) recently pointed out, "nobody will vote for parties that are worn out and fragile. Voters will vote for people. "

Yet, if we thought that we could lay aside of the electoral race all the politicians who are being accused of corruption and other crimes, , then we would be completely mistaken. The former President, Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, despite running the risk of going to jail, is the candidate who is in the best position to win the elections.

Lula, who is making a tour on several Brazilian states, shows that he is not "dead", and has already announced that he will be a candidate, even though, according to him, he is suffering unjustly a relentless persecution from the Brazilian justice system, claiming to be victim of a plot.

According to the latest survey, Lula even strengthened the leadership in the presidential race, with deputy Jair Bolsonaro (by many considered a representative of the far right), in a relevant second place.

Considering some possible candidates, including Geraldo Halckmin, Henrique Meirelles (finance minister), or even the current President Michel Temer (no more than 1%), the scenario is considerably favourable for Lula da Silva in a first round in which he would reach 34%, or in any scenario of a second round, which would always be favourable to him.

The PT (Labour Party), is completely hostage to Lula’s popularity; a removal of him from the election would lead to a total eclipse of the party.

How can one understand Lula’s awkward "survival" and resilience? The secret of this political immortality may lie in the fact that Lula knows well what people want and like to hear, and thus manages to articulate this psychological factor with flair in the political game.

This gift of knowing how to charming people was supported by his past as a union leader, where he constantly sought to victimize the poor and the most disadvantaged workers, always waving an ideological flag on their behalf.

At the same time, he sought to distinguish himself from the far left, and to please the "lords of money." Indeed, Brazilian banking and many of the businessmen / politicians who until recently were the Brazilian elite never made so much money as during the period he was President.

Being able to agglutinate consensus, can also be seen in this diificult period. He says what the poor like to hear, victimize himself in relation to justice, and at the same time seeks to reach understandings with politicians and parties of other factions, who in fact are also committed to justice.

No one is more able to know how to play at the same time with several “decks” than Lula and make them understand that everyone wins. He knows what they like about each other, and his method is trying to please everyone. He is a master in the art of influencing, and by seeking to please everyone, reveals a great pragmatism.

Therefore, it can also be explained why Lula is already weaving electoral agreements with some of the most corrupt chieftains of the Brazilian right wing. During his presidency and that of Dilma Rousseff many of those now accused of corruption ruled with them.

Nowadays, Lula even claims to have forgiven the alleged coup leaders, who contributed to Dilma's impeachment. This unexpected approach with some of his opponents is not innocent. Convinced that the dispute in the judicial system is not favourable to him and that he will have to face several lawsuits and new convictions, Lula resorts to his former friends from the conservative parties, with whom he had already ruled, in order to get his party to re-emerge at the polls.

Lula, however, has an advantage over other politicians accused of corruption. He doesn’t need to seek much material evidence to defend himself against the judges’ accusations. More than seeking to present material evidence that he is innocent, he has described himself as a "political persecuted".

The allegations against Lula are serious, very likely will get a prison sentence and eventually imprisoned. But, as it has been observed, we can still witness a “blow” to the Brazilian judicial system through the Federal Supreme Court – it can suspend the condemnation and let Lula appeal several times.

Lula may be going through the most fragile moment of his political career, but his ability to turn around adverse situations, with the ability to be himself in one day, and his opposite the next day, makes us realize he may still be far from the end of his political career.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

TANZANIA: PECULIARITIES, BIZARRENESS AND OTHER THINGS

Tanzania, unlike many other African countries, has been spared internal strife and civil wars that have devastated many African states. This aspect contributes to some internal stability, which, however, did not translate into economic prosperity for the country. Although in the last decade the country has progressed economically with average growth rates of 6-7% a year, the number of Tanzanians living in extreme poverty remains very high. Its main economic activities are linked to agriculture, industry and construction, not forgetting tourism that is closely linked to the diversity and richness of Tanzania's forestry and wildlife land.

Current president, John Magufuli (2015), nicknamed “bulldozer”, has sought to redraw public spending by betting on development, reducing recurrent spending significantly and mobilizing efforts to mobilize domestic revenue.

The country's current challenges in terms of economic development are largely associated with the creation of a good investment climate in infrastructure, agriculture and workforce, as the number of young people entering the labour force each year is very important for this country. It has also gradually opened the doors to the private sector.

Not everything has been peaceful for Magufuli since taking office. He has gained fame because of some controversial decisions. Despite winning praise for his anti-corruption stance, he has received a lot of criticism from human rights groups because of the strong crackdown on his ideas by the opposition parties and the media.

Tanzania may even have a “bulldozer” running the country, with all its exceptionalities, beauties, weaknesses and limitations, but what makes me take more account of this East African country are some of its peculiarities or even eccentricities that swarm and are not visible to everybody.

A - Tanzania President has disclosed his salary on TV. It should be noted that the current Vice President Samia Suluhu was chosen by Magufuli and is the first woman to take on such a high office in government.

B - "Liemba", formerly known as Graf Von Goetzen, was a German warship, built in 1913, going through several phases and periods and it was even dismantled, until the English turned it into a ferryboat in 1926, this being the function which it plays down to the present day. It carries cargo and people (mostly merchants) between Kigoma and Mpulungu in Zambia and has even been responsible for the rescue of thousands of refugees. It turns out to be the major enabler of Lake Tanganyika's trade (the world's largest lake), and is a vital link for people living around the Great Lakes area.

C - Drones help fight malaria in Tanzania. Malaria, transmitted by mosquitoes, is one of the largest plights that has ever devastated the African continent. Millions of mosquito nets have been distributed across sub-Saharan Africa to combat this disease.

Now, Aberystwyth University of Wales, in partnership with Zanzibar's Malaria Elimination program, is combating malaria prevention with the use of drones to capture images of large areas of still water used by mosquitoes to reproduce. The main goal is creating accurate maps of potential habitats so that they can be treated with larvicides. The researchers also plan to incorporate the drone images into smartphones to aid larvicide spraying teams and better tracking progress.

D - In parts of Africa, albinos are being hunted and harvested for their body parts.

In Tanzania alone, at least 75 albinos have been killed since 2000. Unfortunately, their life expectancy is not high, because the lack of melanin in albino skin makes them particularly wary of the sun in Africa.

The Amnesty International recently enhanced that "the macabre trade is also fueled by a belief that people with albinism contain gold, and another belief is that a person with albinism can cure HIV." Witch doctors are revered by many in the rural communities. Some spread the belief that albino body parts can bring luck and fortune. Some albinos choose to live in isolated protectorates and also because they are ashamed of their children.

Witchcraft is taking very seriously. A few months ago, Tanzanian court charged 32 people with murder after five women suspected of witchcraft were beaten to death, and their corpses burned. Hundreds of suspected witches are murdered in the east African country each year.

E - According to a report of the Human Right Watch, Tanzanian migrant domestic workers in Oman and in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) face excessive working hours, unpaid salaries, and physical and sexual abuse. The abuses include beatings, and exploitation of all kind. Some of the cases that were denounced, amount to slavery or labour trafficking. This situation is facilitated mainly by abusive visa-sponsorship rules in Oman and the UAE and loopholes in the employment laws of the Tanzanian government.

F - The country has designated 25% of its land to wildlife sanctuaries and national parks. It is among the highest in the world, and the total area is greater than the size of Germany. As a consequence, tourism is one of the greatest assets.

Recently, Tanzania's largest park, Ruaha, has been named one of the 21 best places to visit in the world by National Geographic.

G - Zanzibar has the cloves as its greatest exlibris. The main foreign export of Zanzibar is cloves. Also known as the Spice Islands, it is the largest producer of cloves in the world.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: JOÃO LOURENÇO PROCEEDS WITH THE CLEANING! SO, WHAT’S NEXT?

After the exoneration of Isabel dos Santos from the Sonangol administration (the “golden egg” according to President João Lourenço (JL), it seems that several heralds of Angolan and Portuguese democracy have left their "hole", having extolled and highlighted the act of the President.

This act was the culmination of a cleaning process that JL is carrying out at the main public companies of Angola – especially economic, natural resources and media level. At this point, the fight against corruption that he has so much praised during the presidential campaign seems to be under way.

However, we should not celebrate, as if Angola was already taking the path of a true democracy and entering the path of progress. It is true that the early months of JL seem to be promising, having sought to demarcate from the political line of its predecessor José Eduardo dos Santos (JES), targeting public business administrations that were controlled by JES’ friends and family and demonstrating unprecedented skills at this political level.

Yet, first we need to know if this new context of Angolan politics is not merely a reinforcement of the president's power. JES when it assumed the presidency of Angola also got rid of some elements annoying for the exercise of his power. Then we all know what happened. Moreover, only if JES is considerably weakened will he not react with the strength to the several insults JL has done to him since he assumed the presidency. JES is still the President of the MPLA, the ruling party which seems being in turmoil.

Although JL is well acquainted with the military because of his past and apparently having them under his control, one can’t help but be apprehensive about the fact the president is being surrounded in most situations by former supporters and allies of JES, which reveals human nature at its very worst.

In these first months of JL's term the winds of change seem to be blowing. However, it is too early to really gauge their true intentions. Will the Angolan society finally enter an era of freedom and progress towards a true Rule of Law, or are we simply witnessing a mere change of leadership and control of the state's key posts to secure the power of JL within a framework of disguised authoritarianism, which in fact is what has always been present in Angola?

We will have to wait for the next chapters, but more than that, we should be more than ever aware to what is coming.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

DR CONGO: FINALLY, A TIMETABLE FOR THE ELECTIONS!

The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) finally released a timetable that planned long long-awaited DRC elections. These will take place in December 2018, having already generated protest by the opposition.

This almost "miraculous episode” succeeded after US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Halley, had recently visited the camp for Congolese people displaced by violence in the country. She left that camp literally in tears, and enhanced that polls to replace Joseph Kabila, were to be held in 2018. Failing that, the country would be bound to a consequent lack of support and solidarity from the international community.

Kabila, has been delaying leaving office, disrespecting the constitution and the agreement he had entered into. The country has been plunged into a crisis that has been worsening last year escalating the violence, especially in the east zone, and after delaying the elections originally scheduled for late 2016.

The main opposition parties criticize the timetable for the election, because this situation is not respecting the law and the political agreement previously signed with the government, where a date was still expected for this year. Thus, for the opposition, it is essential for people to be vigilant about these new developments, because a lot is at stake, and at the expense of cat-and-mouse game, many people have lost their lives and the population is suffering at all levels.

The reasons given by the Kabila Government and the CENI itself for the successive delays refer to the problems registering millions of voters across the vast central African nation. That was never grasped by opposition which accuses Kabila of manipulating the whole process.

Nevertheless, the public support of the CENI's announcement by the US, is already a sign that it will not tolerate further setbacks of Kabila’s government, otherwise it will lose all support at the international level.

The US through a statement has indicated the "urgent need for the DRC government to implement the confidence building measures included in the December Agreement. This includes an end to politically motivated prosecutions, the release of political prisoners, and respect for the right of peaceful assembly and association, so that opposition parties and civil society organizations may hold peaceful public meetings without government interference or intimidation. "

Thus, the US will commit to working with DRC institutions, regional and international African organizations, as well as MONUSCO (Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo) to ensure that the 45 million voters are able to cast their ballots on time and as scheduled in December 2018.

How wonderful it would have been to witness a similar conduct like President of Botswana Ian Khama. He announced he would stepdown in April 2018 and his current VP Mokgweetsi Masisi would govern the country until the elections to be held in 2019!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BOTSWANA: AN EXCEPTION IN AFRICA

Botswana was one of the countless territories which belonged to the British Empire. It would ensure its independence in 1966. At that time was one of the poorest countries in the world, and this was very clear when per capita income was observed.

            Almost all countries that have become independent in Africa, have faced many problems, resulting in widespread poverty of the population; and democracy; for its part, is often vilified where the rule of law can’t be fully accomplished.

Botswana, while not exempt from trampling on certain fundamental rules of democracy and disrespecting freedom of information and access to public funds by the opposition, is undoubtedly the country that has been able to develop more in key areas, at least as far as the African continent is concerned.

With a territorial similar size to France, with 70% of that area being part of the Kalahari Desert, its prospect of becoming another failed state in Africa and continuing one of the poorest countries in the world, was high.

How did we achieve this Botswana’s “miracle”? Economic freedom is by many considered to be the driving force of this success story. All this freedom was based on a trinomial - democracy, free markets and the rule of law. Therefore, promoting people who respected individual liberties.

Between 1966 and 1999, the country grew on average 9% a year, and transformed itself into one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

The foundation of the first major boost in the country was its first President Seretse Khama (1966-1980). This period witnessed a tremendous progress at the social and economic level. It embraced an export-based economy built around beef, copper and diamonds. Strong measures were taken against corruption and it was developed market friendly policies. As a cornerstone of this, a democracy of the liberal type was observed, where the rule of law was key, despite the fact there is a dominant ethnic group - the Tswana (79%). It has thus become the fastest growing economy. The main revenues supplied the infrastructure, health care, the education system, as well as other sources of economic growth.

The current President Ian Khama (2008 - ?), the son of the 1st president, Seretse, praises to further leverage economic freedom through the enhancement of private initiative. One can observe the correlation between economic freedom and high current growth rate and improvements in the socio-economic conditions. Nowadays, Botswana’s economy is consolidated in three sectors: mining, cattle and tourism. As it safeguards property rights very well, the country turns out to be a “safe haven” for investors and is one of the most coveted countries in Africa.

It is also at the forefront of innovation on the African continent looking for breaking into new markets and struggling to scale up inventions. An example of this was the creation of the “Botswana Innovation Hub Park” - the green building first science and technology park. Its primary goal is "to contribute to the country's economic development and competitiveness by creating new scientific technological and indigenous knowledge-based business opportunities".

As highlighted earlier, the secret of all this? Economic freedom.

Therefore, is this a country that collects only successes? Out of the question. There are problems which one can’t find an easy solution. The HIV / AIDS epidemic - although the number of deaths has dropped in the last decade, the infected increased considerably. In addition, climatic and geographical conditions have contributed to major environmental problems: drought and desertification.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations