ANGOLA: JOÃO LOURENÇO PROCEEDS WITH THE CLEANING! SO, WHAT’S NEXT?

After the exoneration of Isabel dos Santos from the Sonangol administration (the “golden egg” according to President João Lourenço (JL), it seems that several heralds of Angolan and Portuguese democracy have left their "hole", having extolled and highlighted the act of the President.

This act was the culmination of a cleaning process that JL is carrying out at the main public companies of Angola – especially economic, natural resources and media level. At this point, the fight against corruption that he has so much praised during the presidential campaign seems to be under way.

However, we should not celebrate, as if Angola was already taking the path of a true democracy and entering the path of progress. It is true that the early months of JL seem to be promising, having sought to demarcate from the political line of its predecessor José Eduardo dos Santos (JES), targeting public business administrations that were controlled by JES’ friends and family and demonstrating unprecedented skills at this political level.

Yet, first we need to know if this new context of Angolan politics is not merely a reinforcement of the president's power. JES when it assumed the presidency of Angola also got rid of some elements annoying for the exercise of his power. Then we all know what happened. Moreover, only if JES is considerably weakened will he not react with the strength to the several insults JL has done to him since he assumed the presidency. JES is still the President of the MPLA, the ruling party which seems being in turmoil.

Although JL is well acquainted with the military because of his past and apparently having them under his control, one can’t help but be apprehensive about the fact the president is being surrounded in most situations by former supporters and allies of JES, which reveals human nature at its very worst.

In these first months of JL's term the winds of change seem to be blowing. However, it is too early to really gauge their true intentions. Will the Angolan society finally enter an era of freedom and progress towards a true Rule of Law, or are we simply witnessing a mere change of leadership and control of the state's key posts to secure the power of JL within a framework of disguised authoritarianism, which in fact is what has always been present in Angola?

We will have to wait for the next chapters, but more than that, we should be more than ever aware to what is coming.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

DR CONGO: FINALLY, A TIMETABLE FOR THE ELECTIONS!

The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) finally released a timetable that planned long long-awaited DRC elections. These will take place in December 2018, having already generated protest by the opposition.

This almost "miraculous episode” succeeded after US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Halley, had recently visited the camp for Congolese people displaced by violence in the country. She left that camp literally in tears, and enhanced that polls to replace Joseph Kabila, were to be held in 2018. Failing that, the country would be bound to a consequent lack of support and solidarity from the international community.

Kabila, has been delaying leaving office, disrespecting the constitution and the agreement he had entered into. The country has been plunged into a crisis that has been worsening last year escalating the violence, especially in the east zone, and after delaying the elections originally scheduled for late 2016.

The main opposition parties criticize the timetable for the election, because this situation is not respecting the law and the political agreement previously signed with the government, where a date was still expected for this year. Thus, for the opposition, it is essential for people to be vigilant about these new developments, because a lot is at stake, and at the expense of cat-and-mouse game, many people have lost their lives and the population is suffering at all levels.

The reasons given by the Kabila Government and the CENI itself for the successive delays refer to the problems registering millions of voters across the vast central African nation. That was never grasped by opposition which accuses Kabila of manipulating the whole process.

Nevertheless, the public support of the CENI's announcement by the US, is already a sign that it will not tolerate further setbacks of Kabila’s government, otherwise it will lose all support at the international level.

The US through a statement has indicated the "urgent need for the DRC government to implement the confidence building measures included in the December Agreement. This includes an end to politically motivated prosecutions, the release of political prisoners, and respect for the right of peaceful assembly and association, so that opposition parties and civil society organizations may hold peaceful public meetings without government interference or intimidation. "

Thus, the US will commit to working with DRC institutions, regional and international African organizations, as well as MONUSCO (Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo) to ensure that the 45 million voters are able to cast their ballots on time and as scheduled in December 2018.

How wonderful it would have been to witness a similar conduct like President of Botswana Ian Khama. He announced he would stepdown in April 2018 and his current VP Mokgweetsi Masisi would govern the country until the elections to be held in 2019!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BOTSWANA: AN EXCEPTION IN AFRICA

Botswana was one of the countless territories which belonged to the British Empire. It would ensure its independence in 1966. At that time was one of the poorest countries in the world, and this was very clear when per capita income was observed.

            Almost all countries that have become independent in Africa, have faced many problems, resulting in widespread poverty of the population; and democracy; for its part, is often vilified where the rule of law can’t be fully accomplished.

Botswana, while not exempt from trampling on certain fundamental rules of democracy and disrespecting freedom of information and access to public funds by the opposition, is undoubtedly the country that has been able to develop more in key areas, at least as far as the African continent is concerned.

With a territorial similar size to France, with 70% of that area being part of the Kalahari Desert, its prospect of becoming another failed state in Africa and continuing one of the poorest countries in the world, was high.

How did we achieve this Botswana’s “miracle”? Economic freedom is by many considered to be the driving force of this success story. All this freedom was based on a trinomial - democracy, free markets and the rule of law. Therefore, promoting people who respected individual liberties.

Between 1966 and 1999, the country grew on average 9% a year, and transformed itself into one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

The foundation of the first major boost in the country was its first President Seretse Khama (1966-1980). This period witnessed a tremendous progress at the social and economic level. It embraced an export-based economy built around beef, copper and diamonds. Strong measures were taken against corruption and it was developed market friendly policies. As a cornerstone of this, a democracy of the liberal type was observed, where the rule of law was key, despite the fact there is a dominant ethnic group - the Tswana (79%). It has thus become the fastest growing economy. The main revenues supplied the infrastructure, health care, the education system, as well as other sources of economic growth.

The current President Ian Khama (2008 - ?), the son of the 1st president, Seretse, praises to further leverage economic freedom through the enhancement of private initiative. One can observe the correlation between economic freedom and high current growth rate and improvements in the socio-economic conditions. Nowadays, Botswana’s economy is consolidated in three sectors: mining, cattle and tourism. As it safeguards property rights very well, the country turns out to be a “safe haven” for investors and is one of the most coveted countries in Africa.

It is also at the forefront of innovation on the African continent looking for breaking into new markets and struggling to scale up inventions. An example of this was the creation of the “Botswana Innovation Hub Park” - the green building first science and technology park. Its primary goal is "to contribute to the country's economic development and competitiveness by creating new scientific technological and indigenous knowledge-based business opportunities".

As highlighted earlier, the secret of all this? Economic freedom.

Therefore, is this a country that collects only successes? Out of the question. There are problems which one can’t find an easy solution. The HIV / AIDS epidemic - although the number of deaths has dropped in the last decade, the infected increased considerably. In addition, climatic and geographical conditions have contributed to major environmental problems: drought and desertification.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations