DR CONGO: PAY ATTENTION INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY!

DR Congo (DRC) is on the headlines again and for the worst reasons. Rebels in eastern DRC have carried out one of the deadliest attacks against UN forces in recent years. At least 14 blue helmets and five congolese soldiers have been killed and 53 injured. The dead or injured blue helmets are for the most part from Tanzania. Scores of armed groups operate in this African country, especially in the largely lawless eastern Kivu and Kasai regions.

Monusco (United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DR Congo), established in 2010, is the largest peacekeeping operation in the world and aims to control the actions of various armed groups in conflict. It has 16,500 blue helmets and more than 1,350 policemen. The attack has not yet been claimed, but is believed to have been perpetrated by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), the rebel islamic group formed in the neighbouring Uganda back in the nineties which has been increasingly active over the past 6 months. However, there are suspicions that other groups are involved.

This country has never found peace in its recent history for many reasons: disputes over natural resources, territorial claims, ethnic and tribal rivalries, etc. Now with the dismantling of the Daesh in Syria and Iraq, small groups are forming and spreading everywhere, supporting terrorist groups already well established in some regions, as is the case of the ADF. It seems that we may have another explosive "ingredient" in the already tumultuous and perilous Central African country - Islamic extremism.

Therefore, more than the firmness and assertive words from the UN Secretary General, António Guterres condemning this attack that described it as a "war crime", a strategy is urgently needed and thus a more effective action in this region, and paying close attention to the type of organization (its main traits) Daesh is developing in other regions.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: LULA, THE POLITICAL ANIMAL WITH EXTRA LIVES

The presidential elections will only take place next october, however, it is almost unquestionable that Brazil has never been as hostage to a good result for the benefit of its people as now.

Power-linked parties such as the PMDB, PT or the PSDB are increasingly discredited as they are all associated with corruption and money laundering schemes through some of their top exponents. As Geraldo Halckmin (Governor of the State of São Paulo and possible candidate for the presidency -PSDB) recently pointed out, "nobody will vote for parties that are worn out and fragile. Voters will vote for people. "

Yet, if we thought that we could lay aside of the electoral race all the politicians who are being accused of corruption and other crimes, , then we would be completely mistaken. The former President, Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, despite running the risk of going to jail, is the candidate who is in the best position to win the elections.

Lula, who is making a tour on several Brazilian states, shows that he is not "dead", and has already announced that he will be a candidate, even though, according to him, he is suffering unjustly a relentless persecution from the Brazilian justice system, claiming to be victim of a plot.

According to the latest survey, Lula even strengthened the leadership in the presidential race, with deputy Jair Bolsonaro (by many considered a representative of the far right), in a relevant second place.

Considering some possible candidates, including Geraldo Halckmin, Henrique Meirelles (finance minister), or even the current President Michel Temer (no more than 1%), the scenario is considerably favourable for Lula da Silva in a first round in which he would reach 34%, or in any scenario of a second round, which would always be favourable to him.

The PT (Labour Party), is completely hostage to Lula’s popularity; a removal of him from the election would lead to a total eclipse of the party.

How can one understand Lula’s awkward "survival" and resilience? The secret of this political immortality may lie in the fact that Lula knows well what people want and like to hear, and thus manages to articulate this psychological factor with flair in the political game.

This gift of knowing how to charming people was supported by his past as a union leader, where he constantly sought to victimize the poor and the most disadvantaged workers, always waving an ideological flag on their behalf.

At the same time, he sought to distinguish himself from the far left, and to please the "lords of money." Indeed, Brazilian banking and many of the businessmen / politicians who until recently were the Brazilian elite never made so much money as during the period he was President.

Being able to agglutinate consensus, can also be seen in this diificult period. He says what the poor like to hear, victimize himself in relation to justice, and at the same time seeks to reach understandings with politicians and parties of other factions, who in fact are also committed to justice.

No one is more able to know how to play at the same time with several “decks” than Lula and make them understand that everyone wins. He knows what they like about each other, and his method is trying to please everyone. He is a master in the art of influencing, and by seeking to please everyone, reveals a great pragmatism.

Therefore, it can also be explained why Lula is already weaving electoral agreements with some of the most corrupt chieftains of the Brazilian right wing. During his presidency and that of Dilma Rousseff many of those now accused of corruption ruled with them.

Nowadays, Lula even claims to have forgiven the alleged coup leaders, who contributed to Dilma's impeachment. This unexpected approach with some of his opponents is not innocent. Convinced that the dispute in the judicial system is not favourable to him and that he will have to face several lawsuits and new convictions, Lula resorts to his former friends from the conservative parties, with whom he had already ruled, in order to get his party to re-emerge at the polls.

Lula, however, has an advantage over other politicians accused of corruption. He doesn’t need to seek much material evidence to defend himself against the judges’ accusations. More than seeking to present material evidence that he is innocent, he has described himself as a "political persecuted".

The allegations against Lula are serious, very likely will get a prison sentence and eventually imprisoned. But, as it has been observed, we can still witness a “blow” to the Brazilian judicial system through the Federal Supreme Court – it can suspend the condemnation and let Lula appeal several times.

Lula may be going through the most fragile moment of his political career, but his ability to turn around adverse situations, with the ability to be himself in one day, and his opposite the next day, makes us realize he may still be far from the end of his political career.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

TANZANIA: PECULIARITIES, BIZARRENESS AND OTHER THINGS

Tanzania, unlike many other African countries, has been spared internal strife and civil wars that have devastated many African states. This aspect contributes to some internal stability, which, however, did not translate into economic prosperity for the country. Although in the last decade the country has progressed economically with average growth rates of 6-7% a year, the number of Tanzanians living in extreme poverty remains very high. Its main economic activities are linked to agriculture, industry and construction, not forgetting tourism that is closely linked to the diversity and richness of Tanzania's forestry and wildlife land.

Current president, John Magufuli (2015), nicknamed “bulldozer”, has sought to redraw public spending by betting on development, reducing recurrent spending significantly and mobilizing efforts to mobilize domestic revenue.

The country's current challenges in terms of economic development are largely associated with the creation of a good investment climate in infrastructure, agriculture and workforce, as the number of young people entering the labour force each year is very important for this country. It has also gradually opened the doors to the private sector.

Not everything has been peaceful for Magufuli since taking office. He has gained fame because of some controversial decisions. Despite winning praise for his anti-corruption stance, he has received a lot of criticism from human rights groups because of the strong crackdown on his ideas by the opposition parties and the media.

Tanzania may even have a “bulldozer” running the country, with all its exceptionalities, beauties, weaknesses and limitations, but what makes me take more account of this East African country are some of its peculiarities or even eccentricities that swarm and are not visible to everybody.

A - Tanzania President has disclosed his salary on TV. It should be noted that the current Vice President Samia Suluhu was chosen by Magufuli and is the first woman to take on such a high office in government.

B - "Liemba", formerly known as Graf Von Goetzen, was a German warship, built in 1913, going through several phases and periods and it was even dismantled, until the English turned it into a ferryboat in 1926, this being the function which it plays down to the present day. It carries cargo and people (mostly merchants) between Kigoma and Mpulungu in Zambia and has even been responsible for the rescue of thousands of refugees. It turns out to be the major enabler of Lake Tanganyika's trade (the world's largest lake), and is a vital link for people living around the Great Lakes area.

C - Drones help fight malaria in Tanzania. Malaria, transmitted by mosquitoes, is one of the largest plights that has ever devastated the African continent. Millions of mosquito nets have been distributed across sub-Saharan Africa to combat this disease.

Now, Aberystwyth University of Wales, in partnership with Zanzibar's Malaria Elimination program, is combating malaria prevention with the use of drones to capture images of large areas of still water used by mosquitoes to reproduce. The main goal is creating accurate maps of potential habitats so that they can be treated with larvicides. The researchers also plan to incorporate the drone images into smartphones to aid larvicide spraying teams and better tracking progress.

D - In parts of Africa, albinos are being hunted and harvested for their body parts.

In Tanzania alone, at least 75 albinos have been killed since 2000. Unfortunately, their life expectancy is not high, because the lack of melanin in albino skin makes them particularly wary of the sun in Africa.

The Amnesty International recently enhanced that "the macabre trade is also fueled by a belief that people with albinism contain gold, and another belief is that a person with albinism can cure HIV." Witch doctors are revered by many in the rural communities. Some spread the belief that albino body parts can bring luck and fortune. Some albinos choose to live in isolated protectorates and also because they are ashamed of their children.

Witchcraft is taking very seriously. A few months ago, Tanzanian court charged 32 people with murder after five women suspected of witchcraft were beaten to death, and their corpses burned. Hundreds of suspected witches are murdered in the east African country each year.

E - According to a report of the Human Right Watch, Tanzanian migrant domestic workers in Oman and in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) face excessive working hours, unpaid salaries, and physical and sexual abuse. The abuses include beatings, and exploitation of all kind. Some of the cases that were denounced, amount to slavery or labour trafficking. This situation is facilitated mainly by abusive visa-sponsorship rules in Oman and the UAE and loopholes in the employment laws of the Tanzanian government.

F - The country has designated 25% of its land to wildlife sanctuaries and national parks. It is among the highest in the world, and the total area is greater than the size of Germany. As a consequence, tourism is one of the greatest assets.

Recently, Tanzania's largest park, Ruaha, has been named one of the 21 best places to visit in the world by National Geographic.

G - Zanzibar has the cloves as its greatest exlibris. The main foreign export of Zanzibar is cloves. Also known as the Spice Islands, it is the largest producer of cloves in the world.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: JOÃO LOURENÇO PROCEEDS WITH THE CLEANING! SO, WHAT’S NEXT?

After the exoneration of Isabel dos Santos from the Sonangol administration (the “golden egg” according to President João Lourenço (JL), it seems that several heralds of Angolan and Portuguese democracy have left their "hole", having extolled and highlighted the act of the President.

This act was the culmination of a cleaning process that JL is carrying out at the main public companies of Angola – especially economic, natural resources and media level. At this point, the fight against corruption that he has so much praised during the presidential campaign seems to be under way.

However, we should not celebrate, as if Angola was already taking the path of a true democracy and entering the path of progress. It is true that the early months of JL seem to be promising, having sought to demarcate from the political line of its predecessor José Eduardo dos Santos (JES), targeting public business administrations that were controlled by JES’ friends and family and demonstrating unprecedented skills at this political level.

Yet, first we need to know if this new context of Angolan politics is not merely a reinforcement of the president's power. JES when it assumed the presidency of Angola also got rid of some elements annoying for the exercise of his power. Then we all know what happened. Moreover, only if JES is considerably weakened will he not react with the strength to the several insults JL has done to him since he assumed the presidency. JES is still the President of the MPLA, the ruling party which seems being in turmoil.

Although JL is well acquainted with the military because of his past and apparently having them under his control, one can’t help but be apprehensive about the fact the president is being surrounded in most situations by former supporters and allies of JES, which reveals human nature at its very worst.

In these first months of JL's term the winds of change seem to be blowing. However, it is too early to really gauge their true intentions. Will the Angolan society finally enter an era of freedom and progress towards a true Rule of Law, or are we simply witnessing a mere change of leadership and control of the state's key posts to secure the power of JL within a framework of disguised authoritarianism, which in fact is what has always been present in Angola?

We will have to wait for the next chapters, but more than that, we should be more than ever aware to what is coming.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

DR CONGO: FINALLY, A TIMETABLE FOR THE ELECTIONS!

The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) finally released a timetable that planned long long-awaited DRC elections. These will take place in December 2018, having already generated protest by the opposition.

This almost "miraculous episode” succeeded after US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Halley, had recently visited the camp for Congolese people displaced by violence in the country. She left that camp literally in tears, and enhanced that polls to replace Joseph Kabila, were to be held in 2018. Failing that, the country would be bound to a consequent lack of support and solidarity from the international community.

Kabila, has been delaying leaving office, disrespecting the constitution and the agreement he had entered into. The country has been plunged into a crisis that has been worsening last year escalating the violence, especially in the east zone, and after delaying the elections originally scheduled for late 2016.

The main opposition parties criticize the timetable for the election, because this situation is not respecting the law and the political agreement previously signed with the government, where a date was still expected for this year. Thus, for the opposition, it is essential for people to be vigilant about these new developments, because a lot is at stake, and at the expense of cat-and-mouse game, many people have lost their lives and the population is suffering at all levels.

The reasons given by the Kabila Government and the CENI itself for the successive delays refer to the problems registering millions of voters across the vast central African nation. That was never grasped by opposition which accuses Kabila of manipulating the whole process.

Nevertheless, the public support of the CENI's announcement by the US, is already a sign that it will not tolerate further setbacks of Kabila’s government, otherwise it will lose all support at the international level.

The US through a statement has indicated the "urgent need for the DRC government to implement the confidence building measures included in the December Agreement. This includes an end to politically motivated prosecutions, the release of political prisoners, and respect for the right of peaceful assembly and association, so that opposition parties and civil society organizations may hold peaceful public meetings without government interference or intimidation. "

Thus, the US will commit to working with DRC institutions, regional and international African organizations, as well as MONUSCO (Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo) to ensure that the 45 million voters are able to cast their ballots on time and as scheduled in December 2018.

How wonderful it would have been to witness a similar conduct like President of Botswana Ian Khama. He announced he would stepdown in April 2018 and his current VP Mokgweetsi Masisi would govern the country until the elections to be held in 2019!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BOTSWANA: AN EXCEPTION IN AFRICA

Botswana was one of the countless territories which belonged to the British Empire. It would ensure its independence in 1966. At that time was one of the poorest countries in the world, and this was very clear when per capita income was observed.

            Almost all countries that have become independent in Africa, have faced many problems, resulting in widespread poverty of the population; and democracy; for its part, is often vilified where the rule of law can’t be fully accomplished.

Botswana, while not exempt from trampling on certain fundamental rules of democracy and disrespecting freedom of information and access to public funds by the opposition, is undoubtedly the country that has been able to develop more in key areas, at least as far as the African continent is concerned.

With a territorial similar size to France, with 70% of that area being part of the Kalahari Desert, its prospect of becoming another failed state in Africa and continuing one of the poorest countries in the world, was high.

How did we achieve this Botswana’s “miracle”? Economic freedom is by many considered to be the driving force of this success story. All this freedom was based on a trinomial - democracy, free markets and the rule of law. Therefore, promoting people who respected individual liberties.

Between 1966 and 1999, the country grew on average 9% a year, and transformed itself into one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

The foundation of the first major boost in the country was its first President Seretse Khama (1966-1980). This period witnessed a tremendous progress at the social and economic level. It embraced an export-based economy built around beef, copper and diamonds. Strong measures were taken against corruption and it was developed market friendly policies. As a cornerstone of this, a democracy of the liberal type was observed, where the rule of law was key, despite the fact there is a dominant ethnic group - the Tswana (79%). It has thus become the fastest growing economy. The main revenues supplied the infrastructure, health care, the education system, as well as other sources of economic growth.

The current President Ian Khama (2008 - ?), the son of the 1st president, Seretse, praises to further leverage economic freedom through the enhancement of private initiative. One can observe the correlation between economic freedom and high current growth rate and improvements in the socio-economic conditions. Nowadays, Botswana’s economy is consolidated in three sectors: mining, cattle and tourism. As it safeguards property rights very well, the country turns out to be a “safe haven” for investors and is one of the most coveted countries in Africa.

It is also at the forefront of innovation on the African continent looking for breaking into new markets and struggling to scale up inventions. An example of this was the creation of the “Botswana Innovation Hub Park” - the green building first science and technology park. Its primary goal is "to contribute to the country's economic development and competitiveness by creating new scientific technological and indigenous knowledge-based business opportunities".

As highlighted earlier, the secret of all this? Economic freedom.

Therefore, is this a country that collects only successes? Out of the question. There are problems which one can’t find an easy solution. The HIV / AIDS epidemic - although the number of deaths has dropped in the last decade, the infected increased considerably. In addition, climatic and geographical conditions have contributed to major environmental problems: drought and desertification.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: JOÃO LOURENÇO – THE FIRST "ADVENTURES" IN THE PRESIDENCY

It may prove challenging the task President João Lourenço has to face for his first term. It is well-known a lot of things are going the wrong way in Angola, and this is mainly due to the bad governance of his predecessor, who not pleased enough with almost 40 years as President, still keeps himself as MPLA’s president safeguarding the revenues that he has been raising along his “reign”.

Actually, although José Eduardo dos Santos (JES) is "retired" from the presidency his hallmark is quite clear - the influence his daughter Isabel dos Santos still has on Angola's most important company – Sonangol - remains obvious as well as the recent motion supporting JES and promoted by the party itself.

Angola, at least formally, is a democratic rule of law. The rules are dictated by the Constitution, and the President only owes obedience to it and the Law. However, it seems that in the present context, there are several questions about who actually commands the country. JES or João Lourenço? Was there actually a hand-over of power to Lourenço? The Law proves that two-headed presidencies are not possible or shared "de facto".

There are, however, some signs that can bring us some hope, in light of what Lourenço promised whilst the electoral campaign to fight corrupt acts. That was even pointed out by the main opposition leader, Isaias Samakuva, though with due caution in the words uttered, as if to say "wait and see".

Carlos Aires da Fonseca Panzo, for instance, was exonerated from the position of Secretary of Economic Affairs of the Presidency. This happened when João Lourenço became aware the Office of the Attorney General of the Republic had instituted a criminal investigation, based on facts denounced by Swiss authorities and that they could constitute crimes under Angolan and Swiss law, namely money laundering.

With this instant resignation, there is at least a clear breakthrough in the fight against corruption. Will the present-day muddle be put in check?

A radical cut with the past is vital, so that the Angolan people know unequivocally the development track.

Yet, it is critical the MPLA supports Lourenço bluntly, and he becomes independent and autonomous from JES and his partners, and actually fulfills the main goals outlined during the campaign and afterwards.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

DR CONGO: A SEAT ON HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL - SHAMELESS!

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has won a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. This could be a prank, but such matters should be taken seriously.

Following a UN General Assembly vote, DRC along with 14 other countries will join a 47-member "club" from January next year until the end of 2020.

Despite the huge criticisms from various political quarters, due to the “Dantesque” record the Joseph Kabila’s government presents, constantly disrespecting human rights, the vote in the Assembly gave DRC 151 votes.

            The DRC has been devastated by a series of conflicts throughout its history, the result of its endless natural resources, which has carried out countries and warring factions in permanent harassment for the pursuit of power.

One mustn’t forget President Joseph Kabila refused to resign from the presidency in December 2016 and this situation has been responsible for a considerable increase of violence. In the last year, the number of refugees has spread in the central and eastern part of the country - 1.5 million.

Government security forces are accused of being responsible for most of the violence in the Kasai region, where around 5000 people were killed and almost 100 mass graves were identified.

In such complex and vicious arena one may observe only in a full year, what kind of ethics does this UN human rights council have? Should we believe it is a credible UN body at the global level?

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL - THE UNCERTAINTY OF INVESTMENT RESUMPTION

Despite the crisis that Brazil is undergoing, we’ve already revealed some good news, mainly highlighting the gradual growth of the Brazilian economy; notwithstanding the constant turmoil regarding Brazilian politics.

In the last report on Brazil, we also emphasized that politics could not live unaware of the economy; the country to make progress, would have to overcome the various mess and disturbances that are before all of us.

However, although the economy has shown some signs of emerging from the recession, at the investment level we still don´t have big prospects for the near future. If we continue to have a perilous investment, Brazil is bound to have a new "chicken flight" growth.

The low level of confidence from economic agents and the hesitant resumption of production factors are usual in times of crisis, but the most decisive factor for Brazil still having low investment levels is fundamentally due to the unprecedented level of political uncertainty.

Indeed, the country has already experienced difficult times at the political level with disastrous consequences for Brazilian society, however, the reality is that this recurring climate of uncertainty causes investment decisions to be delayed and investors adopt a posture of " wait and see ".

The climate of mistrust increased mainly after the media broadcast the conversation between businessman Joesley Batista and President Temer.

In the coming months, investments may begin showing some positive rates if there are no more political crises

Yet, the great concern that is pointed out today refers to the scenario the country faces when Michel Temer’s mandate ends. Though some presidential names already showing up, uncertainty and doubt dominates the direction Brazil will take, so that 2018 is still considered by most economists a rather unexpressive year in the resumption of investments.

 Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: LOCAL ELECTIONS - SOCIALISTS ARE THE BIG WINNERS?

António Costa and his socialist party deserve congratulations. Not for the country's recent economic performance. This is questionable –it depends on the financial point of view and also who should get the merits. But rather because the results in the local elections brouht the Socialist Party to historical levels.

On the other hand, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has had a very poor result, with the two most important urban centres, Lisbon and Oporto, two paradigms of this electoral catastrophe.

As for the left-wing parties that support the socialists in the so-called "contraption government", we find two diverging results. The Left Block, a little more emphatic in general, with some prominence in the capital city, but still with little expression in this kind of elections, remembering it didn’t win any council. Regarding the Communist Party, traditionally strong in local elections, it had a tremendous disappointment, since it lost several important city-councils, such as Almada, Barreiro, Beja, Moura or Peniche. This loss was so obvioust that, contrary to the past, this time his General Secretary admitted the terrible disaster of this election.

Those who have reasons to celebrate the election results are the center-right supporters, led by Asunção Cristas. It got one more council than in 2013 and a fantastic 20,57% in Lisbon electing 4 city councilors.

António Costa can rejoice with this result, but it shouldn’t be too dazzled. In the upcoming elections, he may face a more fragile SDP, but if he wants to continue with the far left support, he will have to rely on a stronger Communist party. Or else renounces from this bizarre alliance and seeks to achieve a result that allows him to govern alone. He needs to call for early elections and take advantage of the current weakness of Social Democrats and left-wing parties. The recent distribution of salary increases in the civil service, retired people and pensioners has brought benefits to the socialists in the election results. But how long will  last this policy of distributing benefits to the civil service?

Also notworthy, the Socialists, despite having won in Lisbon, lost the absolute majority and in Oporto the result was a bit disappointing.

The SDP led by Pedro Passos Coelho (PPC), although not totally surprising the results, turns out to be a great disappointment, because they were even lower than expected. It may not yet be the political "death" of PPC, as he may still want to defeat António Costa again in the next parliamentary elections. Yet, his position in the party is considerably vulnerable.

3 big winners:

Rui Moreira – He was elected as an independent and wins for the second time in Oporto with an absolute majority. Looks like he’s Oporto‘s John Snow "the King in the North".

Isaltino Morais - won Oeiras once again as an independent and with absolute majority, having spent previously a few years in prison, convicted of corruption, money laundering and tax fraud.

Assunção Cristas - the leader of the centrists benefited from the poor choice made by the SDP in Lisbon and aimed for a historic result for her party reinforcing the leadership.

Finally, though we may be too distracted by the elections or the economic growth, which is occasionally praised by the media, we cannot smother the worrying information given by the Bank of Portugal that the total value of public debt has increased once again in August, and surpassed for the first time the 250 billion euros!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: IMF FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE LESS LIKELY

The Economist magazine, more specifically its "Intelligence Unit", reports that the possibility of the IMF hitting a financial assistance to Mozambique has become less likely, since this Fund requires a full disclosure of debt audits.

The IMF's tougher attitude is not surprising, as attempts by the authorities to block the investigation have been a well-known fact. Thus, a number of important issues remained unanswered in a very brief and vigorously drafted report issued by the Government.

The IMF requires a complete and transparent report clearly identifying where the loans went to.

It should be recalled that the Government agreed with an independent audit in order to ascertain the debt issue, namely how the loans were secretly contracted by two public companies.

This new setback seems difficult to resolve as the IMF doen’t want to be accused again of not paying enough attention to corruption issues and for not requiring more transparency, namely when the events took place.

In addition, The Economist highlights that the modest recovery of the economy cannot be ignored and the provision of some external financing has diminished the willingness of Mozambique to make concessions to the MFI.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: POLITICS CANNOT FORGET THE ECONOMY

That Brazil still has great potential and continues to be a shelved power, is no longer a novelty.

Whereas the political crisis plagued Brazil since 2014, the South American giant has lost perhaps the best chance to change from an emerging country to a developed global power. As is well known, emergent is not synonymous with sustained development, equal opportunities or even a uniform social welfare.

We keep living in a miserable political environment, with President Michel Temer surviving several political "earthquakes" of accusations - corruption and criminal organization - promoted by Rodrigo Janot until recently the Commander of the Attorney General's Office.

Yet, as the “Global SProspective” has repeatedly pointed out, the political swamp in which Brazil finds itself, goes from the President to all political and economic quarters, and doesn’t suggest a bright future in the short term.

In any case, the present scenario thoroughly outlined by Temer, will surely finish his term.

Once the global environment remains favorable to emerging markets, it is essential Brazil continues pursuing its potential growth by adopting an agenda of economic adjustments and structural reforms. The same has happened with other countries, such as Mexico, Argentina or India. However, Brazil can’t always count on the benefit of a favorable international context. It is crucial that the country considerably improves its policy framework so as to proceed the reforms.

Any emerging country has only a dynamic economy if it can at least stabilize its political-partisan quarrels. Surprisingly, Brazil has been able to evolve economically, despite the steady political embarrassment. Despite the proliferation of legal charges against many political figures, the government has been able to approve some measures that tend to boost the dynamism of the country's economy.

Therefore, it’s imperative to solve the most pressing political problems and then deal with some of the well-known problems, such as fiscal imbalance, inefficient tax structure, excessive tax waivers, very high wages in some public sectors, fragile educational system, widespread corruption and excessive state intervention in the economy.

Ultimately the, approval of a broad-based political reform in Brazil in the coming years is crucial, including also a reorganization of the electoral legislation. Only this way we may winess a more dynamic economy, which can never be disconnected from its eternal foundation: Politics.

 Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: PEOPLE LOST CONFIDENCE IN THE MPLA

The title of this article says it all, but if the truth be told is innacurate. The angolan population, a long time ago don’t trust on the MPLA.

These presidential elections only confirmed some of the scenarios that we have been emphasizing here.

The MPLA no longer represents the path and the solution that the Angolan people aspire to. The ordinary citizen urges changes aimed at meeting the most basic needs of the population. With so great potential the country has always been identified, it is painful and disgusting Angola to be the country with the highest infant mortality rate in the world. Basic needs are not "satiated" satisfactorily in most areas. Yet, this doesn’t seem to bother the Angolan MPLA elite.

After the National Electoral Commission (NEC) validated the electoral results, we had the confirmation the Government party is in decline and can only be held in power by artífices which are increasingly easily exposed.

- The NEC is at the service of the Government party;

- The same applies to the Constitutional Court;

- The counting of votes was manipulated;

- The opposition don’t accept the results justifiably and appealed to the competent bodies, calling for non-military intervention;

- It was recalled through facts that Jonas Savimbi in 1992, had accepted the election results;

- João Lourenço will continue to serve José Eduardo dos Santos’ (JES) interests.);

- And "got the qualified majority" a key for the MPLA to keep running the country at their pleasure;

- Isabel dos Santos and Zenu, sons of JES keep holding key positions in the Angolan economy;

- The Portuguese political class, for the most part, remains accomplice of the political farce the MPLA has been forging over the years.

These are some of the lessons one can draw from the Angolan elections. The farce and theft was exposed, however, fortunately we observed a more nonconformist opposition, at the same time espousing civility. We also acnowledged the  Angolans can’t stand such injustices any longer.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: COLLUSION, FRAUD AND LIES IN THE ELECTIONS

 Not surprisingly, these elections were to be fraudulent. Only those who are very naive, unifamiliar with the real world, or colluding with the MPLA government, may be astonished at the "results" MPLA made.

Although the latest results are still provisional fugures (the definitive ones are scheduled for September 6), one has already realized that the MPLA's greatest goal is achieved: the guarantee of a qualified majority, which allows it to continue its excesses and abuses.

How does the government party achieve this qualified majority? Loudly lying about the electoral results, “manufacturing” them through the National Electoral Commission (NEC), which has always served the MPLA’s interests.

All of this happens after UNITA, the main opposition party,released a first result, which, though it gave the victory to João Lourenço and the MPLA, would be very close in percentage terms, and the opposition would have more votes than the MPLA. That is, the scenario in the National Assembly would change completely in its configuration, and consequently, Angola could to some extent get rid of the dictatorial yoke that has lasted since independence. To the disappointment and revolt of the majority, the NEC presented sloppy results, in one occasion the sum of the voting percentages exceeded 100%!

Many of the observers, especially the portuguese, who are supposed to observe the elections, have praised the electoral act, highlighting the climate of peace and civility that prevailed throughout the voting. This, with a few exceptions, even seems to be true and to be praised, however, they have neglected to question the way the results have appeared. Were they in the polling centers? The vote counting in those centers had nothing to do with the results released by the CNE.

All opposition parties point out the results provided by the CNE have been forged and don’t correspond with the information given by their party delegates. What do "observers" have to say about this?

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

AFRICA: A LACONIC AND BRIEF LOOK

Mozambique

The road to an everlasting peace is closer after the meeting between President Nyusi and the main opposition leader, Afonso Dhlakama.

A concrete deadline was announced for the conclusion of the peace process.

By the end of the year, if everything goes well, we will have the peace process concluded. A few more steps were taken earlier this month, with military issues and decentralization expected to remain the main factors of discussion between the Mozambican Government and RENAMO.

Hopefully, Felipe Nyusi, at least on this peace promotion subject, will be more successful than in the economic and development issues of the country, because contrary to what he has been proclaiming, Mozambique isn’t being put back on track.        

Angola

The MPLA foam at the mouth since the “Makangola” site disclosed the results of the electoral poll.

Not surprisingly, it has long been clear the Angolan population doesn’t trust this dictatorial regime disguised as a democracy commited by José Eduardo dos Santos and his useful cronies.

The election results shall not reflect how much the MPLA regime is hated by the Angolans, since one acknowledges the results will be rigged once again.

However, it is already clear the MPLA is terrified by the changes that is progressively erupting in Angolan society. I tis quite obvious, especially among the young Angolan university population, more educated and, consequently, more aware of the lies and crimes perpetrated by the Angolan government.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: THE MEDIA ARE ACCOMPLICES OF THE GOVERNMENT

The Angolan elections are around the corner and each of the parties aims to spread their ideas in the best possible way, in order to captivate the citizen's vote.

In a country where only in theory through laws or the Constitution observes democracy, the party that has been in power since independence, besides compromising the legitimacy and veracity of the elections by not collaborating on the issue of international observers, continues to dominate the Angolan media, even in the midst of an election campaign.

Once again, the MPLA is turning the elections into a farce; the disparity in the attention given by the Angolan media to the different political forces is abyssal. The average MPLA time spent by the media in this election campaign period is on average over 60%. The remaining parties, or movements, are left with the rest, standing out UNITA with an average of 13%.

This situation is obviously unconstitutional and violates Angolan law. In an election campaign, there must be equality of treatment in relation to all participating parties, regardless of whether the service media are public or private.

Unfortunately, although this context is not unprecedented, it ultimately discredits justice in the elections, and certain candidacies gain more relevance to the detriment of others.

Given this scenario, it would be vital the National Elections Commission (NEC) ensured respect for equal opportunities and treatment of the various candidates. Equal conditions given by media is imperative. If the NEC doesn’t comply with its obligation, the parties must appeal to the Constitutional Court, which has jurisdiction over electoral issues.

In the face of the damage that media companies are causing in the course of the electoral process, they can be subject of heavy claims for monetary compensation.

If we want justice and veracity in the electoral process, we must condemn situations like that.

 João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations