PORTUGAL: MARCELO, THE PRESIDENT OF AFFECTIONS

The President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa enjoys a popularity never seen in the post-25th of April. His frenetic style and constant personal contact with the population bewitches the media in such a way that with rare exceptions can criticism be seen among journalists.

His past as a political commentator favors him, but obviously that's not enough. He has friendly personality and seems to have solid opinion on all matters. It reminds us that friend that we like to sit at a coffee table and listen to him lecturing about world affairs for hours. Recently he gave an interview to a radio, once again proved to be a well-prepared person to talk about national political issues. Thus, at a first glance, Marcelo seems to be fit for the position he assumes.

However, there is also the more perverse side of our President. On several occasions he was accused of taking advantage of certain situations and exchange barbs at his opponents. Political loyalty was not always associated with Marcelo. Their opinions sometimes also seem to vary according to the most populist trends.

That said, it is also worth noting that despite its oral eloquence, it is characterized by a panoply of trivialities that adds nothing to accomplish solutions for the country. He justifies current national policies, probably better than the government itself, but he doesn’t know how to take advantage of his popularity and make the President’s role more relevant presenting solutions.

Public investment in Portugal has reached the lowest levels since 1960, and although it is not admitted by the current government, austerity remains at such a level that if it were a right-wing government we would certainly have hysterical population and trade union demonstrations. Marcelo is an accomplice to this policy, for the sake of our oligarchy. Nevertheless, our economy is at a standstill. More than taking selfies with citizens, or saying that Portugal has to solve the  beggars problem, the President has to come up with solutions. It has the responsibility to make clear that Portugal must follow a path which moves towards economic liberalism, present reformist solutions in social policies and establish a desruption with the political system.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: "LEGALIZED" HIDDEN DEBTS IN THE GENERAL STATE ACCOUNTS

The government party FRELIMO, approved the General State Account for 2015 by a majority in the plenary session of the National Assembly (NA). The main opposition party - RENAMO and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (DMM) had already expressed on other occasions their discontent and disapproval, since in this budget the contentious debts of Ematum, Proindicus and Mozambique Asset Management companies are legalized. The designated hidden debts contracted by these companies with State guarantees are now included in the General State Account and totals around 2 billion dollars.

RENAMO ended up boycotting the parliamentary session, eventually leaving the discussion room. As for the DMM, it voted against, considering that these debts were contracted in default of NA and accuses the party FRELIMO of being responsible for the burden of this indebtedness that led the country to an unprecedented economic and political crisis. On the other hand FRELIMO by voting in favor, emphasized that the NA is sovereign, the registration of debts contracted by these companies is legal and that this has already been duly justified in accounting terms.Thus, the 2015 economic year was eventually approved, but certainly the ongoing climate of tension between government and opposition will remain in days to come.

Miguel Verde – Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: ELECTIONS PLANNED FOR AUGUST 23

The Angolan general elections were scheduled for August 23. The Republic of Angola Council utter a favorable opinion to the proposal of President José Eduardo dos Santos. This Council considered that all the conditions (human, technical, material, etc.) for the conduct of the elections were met. On this date it was set that it will be granted a day-off.

The MPLA has already indicated that it intends that these elections take place in a climate of political tolerance and respect for the differences and convictions of each one, since only then can they continue on the path of strengthening democracy.

José Eduardo dos Santos has been Angola's President since 1979 (the second longest time in power). He was re-elected in 2012 with an absolute majority of 71.84%. This time it will not be re-nominated as MPLA leader to the presidency. His replacement is General João Lourenço, defense minister, currently MPLA vice president and military in reserve. Bachelor of History, a well-known politician, he  has held several positions at the party level. A couple of questions have arisen: if MPLA wins the election (the most likely scenario) what changes will we observe in Angola regarding respect for democracy or in the fight against corruption? Will this General embody Eduardo dos Santos’ extension of power, Isn’t João Lourenço already a trick instituted and behave in the future as a mere “puppet” of the current President José Eduardo and his stooges?

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL - IMF: BRAZIL RECOVERY WILL BE GRADUAL

According to a recent IMF report, Brazil's economic recovery should happen gradually, but this will require reducing uncertainties in the political field, maintaining the monetary easing already introduced by the Central Bank and achieving progress on the agenda reform ( ex: social welfare system, APC – amendment proposal to the Constitution which handles with the “ceiling” of the public expenses). The Fund foressees a Brazil exiting recession this year having a growth of 0.2%, but for this it must move forward with the reforms.

The main reform goals proposed by the government is rescuing the country credibility and fiscal sustainability, and as a consequence in the foreign market.

The big issue lies over the great uncertainties in the political field that can hamper the main reforms.

There are already some positive signs in the Brazilian economy, despite the 3.6% decline last year. Inflation is surprisingly with declining levels and the forecast is  the country can gradually regain growth and maintain a moderate pace in the short to medium term.

The IMF also points out that freezing spending in real terms will help to reduce the deficit relatively quickly, even though the share of the country's public debt relative to the country's GDP can continue to grow until 2022, when it will represent 87.8%.

In fact the report shows that the performance of the Brazilian economy is below the Latin American and other emerging countries. However, according to IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld, in recent months Brazil is a good example of a country that is part of a growth resumption and has made positive changes.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: THE MAKE-BELIEVE COUNTRY STILL LOCKED INTO A LOGIC OF AUSTERITY

Portugal is facing a period of some optimism and tranquility and the current socialist government, supported by the traditional and modern left, claim several successes, see the latest economic and social statistics. The economic recovery, the fall in unemployment ratings or the slightly more optimistic rating agencies "statements", culminating in the news of a 2% deficit for Portugal, are supporting this apparent tranquility.

The forthcoming stability program promises Portugal to take on its financial commitments as well as a reduction in the size of the state. Some heralds of the Socratic rave are back, constantly criticizing the previous right wing government led by Passos Coelho and defending again “Babylonian” constructions - ex: the TGV or the construction of a new airport.

The Prime Minister António Costa is fueling this optimistic propaganda that everything is going well, fostered by a fantastic marketing network that the Socialist Party has always owned.

Despite all this "good vibe", the policy of austerity remains, although it is relatively masked, and is administered in lighter doses. Tourism, the most powerful activity in Portugal, has helped the economic recovery, but effectively this austerity is no longer so disguised, it is materialized either by increasing indirect taxes or by reducing investment.

Portugal needs to stop pretending there is no austerity and the whole matter passes off splendidly. Increasing productivity and competitiveness should be the top priorities. The State is suffocating the portuguese with miserable wages and taxes. Unfortunately,there is still the illusion the State is serving us in order to improve our well-being. In reality, Portugal has a State increasingly pushing the middle class citizens on the road to serfdom.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: HOPE OF PEACE REBORN

In recent days, there has been some optimism and hopeful words from both President Filipe Nyusi and opposition leader Afonso Dhlakama in pursuit of peace.

The long-time leader of the main opposition party - Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO) has stated that "the war is at an end." These words uttered from his refuge in the center of the country seem to have set the tone, hence a day later the President of Mozambique announced the establishment of consensuses. The two sides have been in permanent contact leading Nyusi to “witness” some optimism, highlighting the increased mutual trust.

Definitive or at least lasting peace seems to be in the mind of both sides. The President's party, Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) emphasizes this, but notwithstanding this recent optimism, we must not forget the numerous setbacks of the past.

We are currently in a truce, effective until May 4. This comes following two others,announced since December.

This last conflict has been prolonged since 2013, within the scope of the challenge of the  2014 electoral process by RENAMO.

Miguel Verde – Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: CHINA AND ITS COMPLIANCE WITH THE REGIME

China has been playing a leading role in the development of Angola's infrastructure, especially since the beginning of this century. Its credit lines have been supplying a large part of Africa, with Angola being its main bastion. The type of intervention is primarily a strategy of non-intervention in internal political affairs. The so-called "Angolan Model" consists of a loan of several trillion dollars at very low interest rates granted to the Angolan government by China. The government then uses these loans in the construction of infrastructure that are awarded to Chinese companies. Finally these loans are paid to China in exchange of oil or minerals. This type of model seemed to obey a sort of "win-win" management that everyone benefit from. China gained political influence, markets for its companies and access to raw materials. For its part, Angola received money to provide the country with basic infrastructure at low prices and without political constraints. Today, however, this kind of model bears no relation to reality.

At the political level, China, adopting a strategy of political nonintervention, becomes an accomplice of the regime and is associated with the greatest barbarities of this regime. Directly or indirectly, China's reputation weakens, and in addition, it is also associated with the corruption and influence peddling business.

Recently, a controversy arose due to the type of relationship between the China company Gezhouba Group Corporation (majority state capital) and Isabel dos Santos (president’s daughter), due to the construction of dams in Angola. This company, very prestigious in several sectors is responsible for the construction of the Caculo Cabaça dam. The question which may arises is what does this company need Isabel dos Santos for? She doesn’t build dams! This kind of connection between China and the established power leads many people to associate China as an oppressive and accomplice power of the Angolan regime, which will sooner or later fall.

Rui Verde – Author, Professor of Law, African affairs analyst

Miguel Verde – Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

“BRAZIL AND THE USA ESTABLISH A NEW AGENDA”

While the country navigates on accusations of corruption, money laundering, influence peddling, delinquency, welfare reform, education reform, labor reform and other decadent information, there have also been for some time positive signs in the economic foresight.

If we consider only the internal political chaos, little or no hope remains for Brazilian people, who are often optimistic about the problems that arise. Yet, Brazil has already created an economic structure that, based on the "endless" natural resources, continues to be one of the most promising economies in the world.

Show must go on, thus it is vital to launch a new strategy also on the international level. And that's exactly what Itamaraty is already outlining with the big power, the USA. The two countries will soon outline a new work agenda to be handled by the two governments.

The main goal is to normalize relations between the two countries, making  less bureaucratic and facilitating cooperation so that the first meeting between the two presidents (expected for the second half of this year) isn’t just a pose for photography.

The main topics:

- An agreement for the use of the Alcântara base (Maranhão) to launch American satélites.

- Regulatory convergence and trade facilitation measures.

- Scientific cooperation.

- Agreements between the police and intelligence agencies of the two countries.

In addition to these issues, the USA has already let it known through its Secretary of State Rex Tillerson that Brazil should once again play a prominent role in its region, notably by coordinating efforts among South American countries in order to find a solution to the political crisis in Venezuela.

Miguel Verde

Portugal and the fallacy of "illusion"

When we watch portuguese televisions, newspapers and websites, we feel that Portugal is going through a period of economic development and confidence, after facing austerity years.

After the international financial crisis, Portugal is one of the eurozone countries with the lowest price evolution rate. The Socialist government seems to be living in a "cocoon" of convenient lies seeking to deceive citizens, by systematically releasing government-friendly statistical data on sensitive matters as unemployment or proclaiming the lowest democracy deficit (a trend already existing since 2013). Some international media such as "The Economist" align in these "good results" so well propagated by the socialist machine. Sometimes the other leftist parties belonging to the government support this thesis, often contradicting their core principles, while other times they prefer to berate and remember negatively the recent austere right-wing government. In fact, austerity was the conductive line of the right-wing government during the crisis years. Unfortunately, it forgot that associated with austerity it should have promoted the investment and consequently the economic growth. However, the current leftist government seems to be making the same mistakes the previous Socialist government led by Jose Socrates made. The national debt continues to grow, resulting in a lack of confidence especially by international investors. That is why it charges higher interest rates than to other countries. This week it was observed that families double weight in state debt ( they hold about 12% of direct state debt).

Portugal urges for a deep structural reform, which certainly doesn’t follow a “random policy”. This left-wing government is generating over the citizens a big "ilusión" that will cause bitterness for the next crisis.

The Portuguese - European Union relationship also has to be rethought, especially in this current international context.

 Lisbon is currently one of the most attractive tourist spots in Europe (the "amusement park"), and this is undoubtedly good news, but one must not forget some economic figures released by complacent media does not hide the gradual decline the country has lived since the beginning of the century. The President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa current concern with begging which we all praise, should not be forgotten, If nothing changes, the global scenario for the near future isn’t so shinning as some people foresee. The so-called portuguese "miracle" is a fallacy.

Miguel Verde