ANGOLA: THE ELECTIONS AND THE NEC

As the presidential elections is getting closer, several questions have arisen about the impartiality and reputation of the entity responsible for this suffrage - the National Elections Commission (NEC).

This body is responsible for safeguarding the elections’ authenticity. Opposition parties have expressed their discontent given the attitude of the NEC. UNITA (main opposition party) has placed greater emphasis on the transparency of the elections, since "the NEC insists on pursuing a posture that brings into question peace and democracy."

This body has always been accused of being associated with the interests of the ruling party, the MPLA. We can immediately identify some issues that call into question the NEC’s transparency.

Since the Electoral Law and Constitution are very clear regarding electoral processes, it’s necessary to move towards institutionalization based on the law, not seeking the balances between laws. They are mandatory rules that have to be applied, period.

Afterward, with the Sinfic’s nomination as one of the companies responsible for the provision of services in the election, the NEC is again under observation, as it isn’t a company that pleases the opposition. It doesn’t bring any credibility or guarantee of independence to the Angolan electoral process. This company is Angolan (although based in Portugal) and in the past has already been accused of collaborating in the adulteration of the results in favor of the MPLA. Furthermore, Sinfic has recently experienced a rough financial period (almost insolvent), therefore is still very vulnerable to achieve satisfactory performance in such an important and sensitive task. It also raises many doubts about its shareholder board, and there are even suspicions that important generals of the regime hold capital in this company.

Finally, there is a demand by UNITA for an audit of the majority age citizens file. There’s a very large difference between the total voters that attended 2012 election, with the number of current voters (according to a recent censos.

It is crucial for Angola an independent and neutral NEC. The direction taken till now means the elections will be no more than a farce, but it’s only for show, confirming a fake democratic regime.

Is there any possibility to retify things, so that NEC gain credibility?

Indeed, the electoral process needs to have observers from the international community, yet that depends on the Angolan executive.

João Dias - Senior Consultant

BRAZIL – TEMER LANGUISHING, LULA AND HIS OLD COMPANIONS CALLING FOR DIRECT ELECTIONS

Michel Temer continues to languish gradually in the chair of power.

The increasingly violent demonstrations and the rise of extremism in Brazilian society, which have forced and summoned the armed forces, are just a few more warnings to the power instituted. Even if Temer remains in the presidency until the end of his term, he has lost all strength or credibility. He seems to be unable to carry out the reforms proposed by his government.

A number of accusations have spread among all levels of power - legislative, executive and judicial. Now Temer may have to respond in writing to a testimony hold by the Federal Police, about the audio that leaked from a conversation between him and Joesley Batista which put the country in even greater agony. The defense claims that now is not the time to inquiries, because this audio has not  been examined yet, therefore the best that Michel Temer has to do is remaining silent.

To complete the picture, the Supreme Electoral Court ruling on the Dilma / Temer case will be resumed on June 6 - possible cassation for alleged illegal funding in the 2014 presidential campaign.

We have already figured out Temer is resilient trying to save his mandate. Thus, he seeks reforms advance at all costs. Despite the reforms being central, Temer is politically destroyed.

As for Lula Inácio da Silva, he increasingly seeks confrontation and victimization politics, in addition to trying to gather around him his party, unions, and all movements linked to the Brazilian left wing. His defense has also been very active, trying to discredit Sergio Moro (Judge of the operation “Lava Jato”) and obstructing his investigation even proposing his compulsory departure.

Movements, unions and left-wing parties are in the hustle and bustle, promoting direct elections, most likely to bring Lula back to the presidency, and thus return to the same kind of political practices that eventually led to one of the most serious crises in Brazil

One of the most beautiful and charismatic periods in Brazil was the so-called "Diretas Já", in 1984. At that time, the Workers' Party (WP) did not support the direct voting campaign, as it contradicted the interests of then-candidate Lula. Today, the WP is campaigning for direct elections, after having already been against the 1988 Constitution, the Real Plan and the Fiscal Responsibility Law (2000). All these prerogatives represented social, political and economic advances.

Aren’t we watching a left wing struggle in favor of its party interests and to protect Lula from prison, rather than actually supporting the development of Brazilian society?

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: A GLIMPSE INTO HOW PORTUGAL IS HANDLING THE NEW STAGE

Nowadays Portugal is full of optimistic news that is spreading throughout society.

It is true we’ve had economic growth, reduced the deficit and unemployment is decreasing. Yet, this stage is rooted more on the current conjunctural economy.

If we observe an economic miracle is most of all due to tourism. The restore of historic town centres is also a consequence of tourism revival and local housing. Today, about one third of beds for tourists is linked to local housing. How was that possible? New platforms in the internet were developed that approach people, new rental laws were implemented, and finally, Portugal had a secretary of state for tourism – Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, who took some important measures to uncomplicate business. Unfortunately, when some businesses have success Socialist goverments increase taxes and complicate them with bureaucracy. When economic difficulties or bankruptcy arise, Socialism creates state subsidies to assist the companies which had been previously destroyed.

The reforms that are spoken of, or at least the foundations for it, haven’t been created, and this allows us to look into the future with some apprehension - a structural growth would give us much more guarantees.

Most of the portuguese prefer to be distracted by trivialities: football, gossips, and being deceived by the sympathetic words of some supposed heralds of truth.

Football is over, but for those who don’t appreciate football commentators, I have to remind we're  now going to have endless speculation about market transfers.

Gossip will continue to be part of our daily lives. It is part of human nature. The most recent and eye-catching for our media is finding out if Madonna will come to live in Portugal - after all Portugal is trendy, as the exponential growth of our tourism has shown.

And now that we are approaching the so-called "silly season" we should have at least some points of interest so that we can “recharge our batteries” on vacation.

Local elections will take place – there’s the likelihhod of the right-wing parties downfall on the one hand and the remarkability of some individualities in charge of some municipalities without partisan support on the other.

It should also be singled out the general strike in the civil service was convenient for all involved. The unions gave a sign of life, the Communists, at least in appearance, demonstrated some autonomy in relation to the Socialist party, which also benefited because the attitude and language on that day showed some restraint.

Finally, in international affairs, the country has shown some indifference with regard to the conditions of the portuguese residing in Venezuela, and the government in particular, seems to remember the refugee situation only from time to time.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: UNDERSTANDING AND HOPES, BUT ...

The two main parties - Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) and Mozambique National Resistance (RENAMO) are drawing an agreement that hopefully will allow the country to celebrate an effective peace.

Notwithstanding the seeming goodwill of both sides, a number of impedments have arisen for its implementation, notably in the revision of the laws for the decentralization of the State and in military affairs, particularly the question of the reintegration of RENAMO armed men into the regular army and the non-politization of the armed forces.

This sluggish process is not surprising, since it was already foreseen how much these issues can generate altercations.

In any case, it is preferable that the peace settling take some time, than to conclude a fake agreement, to be soon disrespected thereafter.

Moreover, Frelimo, the government party, must pay attention to what the population is thinking, especially after the general population  impoverishment and the course taken on peace negotiations.

Let us not forget what was already highlighted in the "GlobalSProspective". External support to Mozambique is considerably lower as a result of the crisis generated by the hidden debts contracted by state-owned companies over Guebuza's term.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: JOÃO LOURENÇO AND THE COMBAT TO CORRUPTION

General João Lourenço, candidate for the angolan presidency appointed by José Eduardo dos Santos is defending in his rallies the fight against corruption.

There is clear evidence that institutionalized corruption in Angolan governing bodies is perhaps the biggest problem Angola has experienced for many years. For those who are distracted, the words spoken by João Lourenço can mean signs of change, however, a well-informed person acknowledges there’s an endemic corruption in MPLA for a long time.

Recently, after a plea bargaining at the Car Wash operation (Brazil), an Angolan company named ORION (advertising and production agency) was identified as having received USD $ 15 million from the multinational Odebrecht in Angola. Not going into details, it was revealed that this figure would be part of a scheme set up to finance the MPLA in the 2012 election campaign.

According to the portuguese jurist Rui Verde, the organic law on general elections prevents Angolan political parties from receiving external funding. Thus we had illegal financing from a foreign company (Odebrecht) to MPLA, through a company in which João Lourenço has a share.

Therefore, Angola has a candidate that despite strongly enhancing fight against corruption, both his party and himself don’t seem to be a good example.

So, what practical actions can João Lourenço take in the fight against corruption. According to the jurist Rui Verde, he could start with these 5 simple measures:

- Remove the current Attorney General of the Republic, General João Maria de Sousa. Its ineffectiveness in the fight against corruption is appalling and we have already seen there are several people with the ability to carry out such a position.

- Create a special unit to combat corruption in the CIS (Criminal Investigation Service) with its own independent leadership.

- The consummation in Angola of investigations already carried out, or in progress abroad. Take for example, the aforementioned Odebrecht case.

- Commit to review the sons’ President participation on the great projects.

- Finally, even for ethic reasons, José Eduardo dos Santos’ sons should be removed from all non-elective public functions.

Obviously there are other measures to be taken, but if you start with these 5, ultimately one can observe signs of change.

João Dias - Senior Consultant

BRAZIL – DIRECT ELECTIONS, YES OR NO?

Brazil is facing another crisis that has left the country on the edge of the abyss in the political, economic and institutional field.

The survival of Michel Temer as President seems like an increasingly remote scenario. After a conversation recording between Temer and Joesley Batista (one of the owners of JBS company - the world's largest beef company), it came to the public, the President stands between the rock and a hard place, since, among other things, had allegedly given consent to pay a bribe to Eduardo Cunha (former president of the Chamber of Deputies and currently in jail) to buy his silence. In fact, this recording after much information and counterinformation, does not prove that fact. Nevertheless, it shows Temer was at least conniving in the various information provided by the businessman. He should have reported the crimes confessed by Joesley, or even immediately issued a jail sentence.

An exasperated hysterism in the disclosure of this recording by the media group Globo (a biased opinion as it was in the case of Dilma's impeachment), demonstrated it was a trap perpetrated against the president and involved several political and economic interests. This recording has been edited at least 70 times. How does the Attorney General's Office (AGO) accept it?

Having said that, this doesn’t mean Temer is a victim, therefore innocent. Anything that involves the content of this hearing should be investigated as quickly as possible, and the President, surely should be fully investigated. Presently, this recording doesn’t prove Temer bought the silence of Eduardo Cunha, in relation to “Lava Jato” scandal.

In this complex plot of interests, which unfortunately Brazil has accustomed us to, there are no saints.

After a period of economic recovery and job creation, as well as important reforms for the country (welfare and labor), we came across with the darkest economic week since Temer took office.

The Batista brothers, beneficiaries of this plea-bargaining, were treated by the AGO almost as heroes, when in reality they are nothing but thugs. Former State Prosecutor Marcelo Miller, Janot's right arm man in the “Lava Jato” work group until March of this year, currently works at the law firm hired by Joesley Batista to represent the JBS group in closing a leniency agreement being signed with the public prosecutor’s office. This gentleman, Marcelo is thus an JBS employee and managed to conjecture a fabulous agreement for the Batista brothers.

.Aecio Neves (candidate to Brazil’s presidency in 2014)  also suffered consequences from this plea-bargaining, being removed from the Senate and the presidency of his party. As for Lula and Dilma, they allegedly received illicitly 150 million USD from JBS in foreign accounts.

Who is taking advantage from all this?

• The Batista brothers agreed to pay R$ 225 million in the settlement agreement. They get safe conduct and now live in New Yourk.  After all the financial speculation that this whole situation generated, they made about  R$ 1 billion in the purchase of dollars.

• The left wing parties, with special emphasis on the PT (Workers Party) and Lula da Silva. Lula managed to divert the attention of his trial for some time. He also calls for the immediate removal of President Temer and the convening of direct elections. The left wing movements believe Lula can win a direct election in this context.

The great loser, of course, is President Temer, his situation is rather shaky. Even if he succeeds in maintaining power, he has lost all the strength or credibility to be the “helmsman” of  reforms that are already under way. AGO already accuses him of 3 crimes - Obstruction of justice, passive corruption and organised crime. The present situation may lead into the annulment of his mandate, his resignation or move forward again to an impeachment process.

If any of these perspectives move forward, the following question arises: should Brazil advance to direct or indirect elections? The direct elections are being proclaimed by the PT and other left wing parties, claiming that with direct elections itb will be restored the truth and democracy in the political system. Many people are deluded with this kind of bait. It should be noted, however, that article 81 of the Federal Constitution in such circumstances with elections scheduled for 2018 is very clear and considers only indirect elections (national congress) as viable. The President elected would only hold office until 2018, the year in which direct election will take place. This movement which aims direct elections is led by PT and usual supporters. In addition to disrespecting the Constitution, this movement doesn’t  intend to preserve democracy, but to ensure Lula´s election. It doesn’t recognise Lula and Dilma’s crimes, thereby isn’t concerned with Brazil. The leftist parties advocate a bolivarianism which has brought only poverty and misery – see Venezuela.

In short, the Brazilian citizen should take another look at the ways the country can overcome this crisis and not enter through cunning ways. He should require the law enforcement and the punishment of all criminals, regardless of the political faction

Ultimately, this and other recent episodes of Brazilian politics are putting the political system at risk.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: A SWINDLER GROWTH

After a cheerful and vibrant weekend for the portuguese - a visit from Pope Francis to Fatima, a championship won by Benfica and the unprecedented and resounding victory at the Eurovision song contest; we also had the announcement that Portugal had a 2,8% economic growth in the first quarter of this year.

If we check portuguese and some international media, we deduct  that Portugal, after a very serious crisis which has shaken but not overturned the existing “status quo”, is now on the "crest of the wave". The growth of tourism, exports and foreign investment (real estate for example) attest the external factos are being more significant than domestic ones and are promoting the favorable economic performance over the last years.

This situation boosts current socialist government – austerity continues though at lower levels.  Most importantly, the increase of the foreign investment is a consequence of the international scenario: drop in oil prices, crisis in Syria and Middle East and the widespread crisis / stalemate that is crumbling in key EU countries.

The previous right-wing government, although it had applied well-known austerity measures, was implementing measures promoted by Troika, and eventually applied this austerity in disproportionate portions.

Despite different policies and the rhetoric which distances the last two governments, current economic outcomes are unlikely to differ greatly regardless of whether we have a leftist or right-wing government.

António Costa’s government, continues eagerly following the Socratic’s government steps. One shouldn’t neglect Socrates also presented very interesting economic statistics beforeTroika’s intervention.

Passos Coelho, the former Prime Minister could have had a feast for having met austerity and the country survived the crisis. Unfortunately, in effect the portuguese right wing doesn’t proceed the liberal policies which value the investment, the competitiveness and the productivity.

As for the current government, it masters the art of the illusion through an efficient propaganda. That will probably bring victories to the Socialists both in the next local government and legislative elections.

This country has recently reached unique standards in music, tourism and sport, but at political level it continues a doldrums of ideas.

In short, let’s not forget what recent economic history taught, especially over the Socratic government period.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations