The
presidential elections will only take place next october, however, it is almost
unquestionable that Brazil has never been as hostage to a good result for the
benefit of its people as now.
Power-linked
parties such as the PMDB, PT or the PSDB are increasingly discredited as they
are all associated with corruption and money laundering schemes through some of
their top exponents. As Geraldo Halckmin (Governor of the State of São Paulo
and possible candidate for the presidency -PSDB) recently pointed out,
"nobody will vote for parties that are worn out and fragile. Voters will
vote for people. "
Yet,
if we thought that we could lay aside of the electoral race all the politicians
who are being accused of corruption and other crimes, , then we would be
completely mistaken. The former President, Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, despite
running the risk of going to jail, is the candidate who is in the best position
to win the elections.
Lula,
who is making a tour on several Brazilian states, shows that he is not
"dead", and has already announced that he will be a candidate, even
though, according to him, he is suffering unjustly a relentless persecution from
the Brazilian justice system, claiming to be victim of a plot.
According
to the latest survey, Lula even strengthened the leadership in the presidential
race, with deputy Jair Bolsonaro (by many considered a representative of the far
right), in a relevant second place.
Considering
some possible candidates, including Geraldo Halckmin, Henrique Meirelles (finance
minister), or even the current President Michel Temer (no more than 1%), the
scenario is considerably favourable for Lula da Silva in a first round in which
he would reach 34%, or in any scenario of a second round, which would always be
favourable to him.
The
PT (Labour Party), is completely hostage to Lula’s popularity; a removal of him
from the election would lead to a total eclipse of the party.
How
can one understand Lula’s awkward "survival" and resilience? The
secret of this political immortality may lie in the fact that Lula knows well
what people want and like to hear, and thus manages to articulate this
psychological factor with flair in the political game.
This
gift of knowing how to charming people was supported by his past as a union
leader, where he constantly sought to victimize the poor and the most
disadvantaged workers, always waving an ideological flag on their behalf.
At
the same time, he sought to distinguish himself from the far left, and to
please the "lords of money." Indeed, Brazilian banking and many of
the businessmen / politicians who until recently were the Brazilian elite never
made so much money as during the period he was President.
Being
able to agglutinate consensus, can also be seen in this diificult period. He says
what the poor like to hear, victimize himself in relation to justice, and at
the same time seeks to reach understandings with politicians and parties of
other factions, who in fact are also committed to justice.
No
one is more able to know how to play at the same time with several “decks” than
Lula and make them understand that everyone wins. He knows what they like about
each other, and his method is trying to please everyone. He is a master in the
art of influencing, and by seeking to please everyone, reveals a great
pragmatism.
Therefore,
it can also be explained why Lula is already weaving electoral agreements with
some of the most corrupt chieftains of the Brazilian right wing. During his
presidency and that of Dilma Rousseff many of those now accused of corruption
ruled with them.
Nowadays,
Lula even claims to have forgiven the alleged coup leaders, who contributed to
Dilma's impeachment. This unexpected approach with some of his opponents is not
innocent. Convinced that the dispute in the judicial system is not favourable
to him and that he will have to face several lawsuits and new convictions, Lula
resorts to his former friends from the conservative parties, with whom he had
already ruled, in order to get his party to re-emerge at the polls.
Lula, however, has
an advantage over other politicians accused of corruption. He doesn’t need to
seek much material evidence to defend himself against the judges’ accusations.
More than seeking to present material evidence that he is innocent, he has
described himself as a "political persecuted".
The
allegations against Lula are serious, very likely will get a prison sentence and
eventually imprisoned. But, as it has been observed, we can still witness a “blow”
to the Brazilian judicial system through the Federal Supreme Court – it can suspend
the condemnation and let Lula appeal several times.
Lula
may be going through the most fragile moment of his political career, but his
ability to turn around adverse situations, with the ability to be himself in
one day, and his opposite the next day, makes us realize he may still be far
from the end of his political career.
Miguel Verde -
Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations
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