Thursday, July 28, 2016

BRAZIL: Economic revival



Consumers and businessmen are trusting again in the Brazilian economy. Economic recovery is coming sooner than many imagined. Some optimistic forecast a growth of 2% in 2017 and 4% one year after. Not bad after a long period of ordeal and uncertainty. Gradually confidence returns. A total of up to $35 Billion dollars are expected to be invested by global funds.
A new cycle is beginning. A great step forward was the impeachment approval of former president Dilma Rousseff. Recentlly, there was also the removal of Eduardo Cunha (former president of the chamber of deputies), who represented a hinderance for the development of urgent measures.
The Market has been reacting with moderate optimism. Bovespa (Sao Paulo stock exchange) this year rose more than 30%. The Real is appreciating noticeably and several economic sectors already look to the future with much more optimism. Even the IMF already sees some progress in the brazilian economy.
This interim government will announce a package of measures and serve as a counterpoint to fiscal adjustment. As soon as the impeachment is validated several pending issues will be triggered.
It is necessary to clarify that most of the main problems still remain. Unemployment is still rising and this trend will continue most likely until the middle of next year. However its growth will be much slower and inflation will have a tendency to fall in the near future. Therefore, consumer's budget will get more relieved. Dangers are always nearby. The ghosts of the past still affect nowadays and surely will influencie the future. But the increase in confidence and good prospects for the future are here to stay.


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