Michel Temer is being able to survive the
political "earthquake" that devastated the country last May
(Joesley's recordings).
His base of support is becoming more and more
fragile, thus the threats and possibilities the Government may fall is
increasing day by day. Many times one is left with the perception that its
dismissal would be the most beneficial solution, so that Brazil is not
constantly called a postponed country associated with corruption. Indirect
elections might represent the most viable scenario, although this is also quite
debatable and dangerous.
Yet, as Temer is committed in taking his
mandate till the end, let us watch his chief challenge. The one which stands
out is, undoubtedly, convincing Brazilian public opinion that he is more
concerned about approving the reforms needed to reactivate the economy than
gathering only the votes necessary to preserve his threatened mandate.
The recent Senate Social Affairs Committee's
rejection of labor reform does not compromise approval of the proposal, but it
is a bad signal. In fact, what we are witnessing lately is a government
somewhat disinterested in matters and demobilized for voting. Thus, Temer needs
to gather his Governement "troops", in order to gain support in the
Congress and to win the next political combats.
If these situations still depend on him, there
are others he will be a simple spectator. An example of this is the complaint
that the Attorney General, Rodrigo Janot, will make to the Federal Supreme
Court, accusing him of passive corruption.
Another situation in which Temer has no
absolute control, concerns the plea bargain of Lucio Funaro (alleged operator
of his party) and Rodrigo Rocha Loures, Temer’s friend, taken aback by a
suitcase of $R 500,000.
Finally the exit of the Brazilian Social
Democratic Party from the allied base of the Government, which can trigger a stampede.
If the President wishes to regain trust, he
must approve the labor and social welfare reforms as soon as possible. For
those who’d liket o go down in history as the "reformist" President, current
situation is hazardously shaky.
Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of
International Relations
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