We are still far from the 2018
presidential elections. Michel Temer keeps striving to survive Brazilian
politics bickering and turmoils until the term of office. His ultimate goal is
being associated with promoting the most important reforms in the economic and welfare
spheres.
We have been for a long time
in a background where the "everything is valid" policy is a common
feature in Brazil. About a third of MPs are involved in legal proceedings. For
these reasons and others, ethics and morals, so vouted by some heralds of
truth, they are often heard by the citizens in an almost insensitive way, or
even with some disdain.
Lula da Silva, President of
Brazil between 2003 and 2011, was sentenced to 9 months and a half in prison
for crimes of passive corruption and money laundering. The execution of his
arrest did not occur, which will allow him to appeal to this sentence in liberty.
Not surprisingly, one of the first measures of the former president was to
announce his candidacy for the 2018 presidential elections. Hence we may have
an effective detention of Lula during his election campaign. Embarrassing or
not, if Lula materialize his candidacy, he’s the favorite to win the elections,
taking into account the several scenarios. That will depend on the decision of
the Federal Regional Court; If it validatess Judge Sérgio Moro's sentence, Lula
would become ineligible.
If Lula could not apply, then
the Workers' Party (PT) would have another candidate, and his chances of
winning would be very small. Fernando Haddad (ex-mayor of São Paulo) or Jaques
Wagner (ex-governor of Bahia) are, for now, the most pressing possibilities.
However, both don’t have the charisma and political force of Lula.
Another solution that could be
adopted by the PT forces would be to ally with some leftist parties and support
Ciro Gomes, a member of the Labor Democratic Party (former governor of Ceará
and former minister). Ciro, wants to inherit Lula's electorate, in case he is
not a candidate, stating his position on the fact that Lula was responsible for
the division of Brazilian society. Curiously enough, it seems that he’ll have
the support of a somewhat unusual political force in this context. The Chinese
Communist Party!
One cannot also forget Marina
Silva (former senator from PT), although She is gradually hardening the
discourse against the left wing and seeking to attract some right-wing figures.
As for the right wing parties,
the PMDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party) and the PSDB (Brazilian Social
Democratic Party) also face the generalized lack of trust which exists regarding
the parties. There is a great friction between elements belonging to the same
political faction. The political agenda is already on the move - the 2018
campaign will revolve around who is in favor or against economic and welfare
reforms.
Aécio Neves, the 2014
candidate, is practically out of the running, as he responds to lawsuits under
the “Lava Jato operation”. Geraldo Alckmin, also a former candidate and current
Governor of São Paulo, is a possibility, although his candidacy may not advance
if the current Mayor of São Paulo, João Doria (a successful businessman with
few years of politics) considered by some The new "goody two-shoes"
of Brazilian politics will advance with a sustainable base support of the PSDB.
Finally, we have the deputy
Jair Bolsonaro, a very controversial man, but well placed in the surveys
conducted so far, and perhaps the only one that has so far “shadowed” Lula.
Bolsonaro was already nicknamed Trump of Brazil, fascist, and even Brasilian’s
savior. The fact Bolsonaro often emerges from the mainstream policy pattern has
put some sectors of society quite apprehensive. He has sought to escape the
association that many times his enemies make to the far-right populist
movements.
Several other names will come
up with certainty as we approach the elections. At all events, these elections
will be certainly the most unpredictable that we will experience, with the
possibility of having turnarounds and surprises at any moment.
Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of
International Relations
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