António Costa and his
socialist party deserve congratulations. Not for the country's recent economic
performance. This is questionable –it depends on the financial point of view
and also who should get the merits. But rather because the results in the local
elections brouht the Socialist Party to historical levels.
On the other hand, the main
opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has had a very poor
result, with the two most important urban centres, Lisbon and Oporto, two
paradigms of this electoral catastrophe.
As for the left-wing parties
that support the socialists in the so-called "contraption government",
we find two diverging results. The Left Block, a little more emphatic in
general, with some prominence in the capital city, but still with little
expression in this kind of elections, remembering it didn’t win any council. Regarding
the Communist Party, traditionally strong in local elections, it had a tremendous
disappointment, since it lost several important city-councils, such as Almada,
Barreiro, Beja, Moura or Peniche. This loss was so obvioust that, contrary to
the past, this time his General Secretary admitted the terrible disaster of
this election.
Those who have reasons to celebrate
the election results are the center-right supporters, led by Asunção Cristas.
It got one more council than in 2013 and a fantastic 20,57% in Lisbon electing
4 city councilors.
António Costa can rejoice with
this result, but it shouldn’t be too dazzled. In the upcoming elections, he may
face a more fragile SDP, but if he wants to continue with the far left support,
he will have to rely on a stronger Communist party. Or else renounces from this
bizarre alliance and seeks to achieve a result that allows him to govern alone.
He needs to call for early elections and take advantage of the current weakness
of Social Democrats and left-wing parties. The recent distribution of salary increases
in the civil service, retired people and pensioners has brought benefits to the
socialists in the election results. But how long will last this policy of distributing benefits to
the civil service?
Also notworthy, the Socialists,
despite having won in Lisbon, lost the absolute majority and in Oporto the
result was a bit disappointing.
The SDP led by Pedro Passos
Coelho (PPC), although not totally surprising the results, turns out to be a
great disappointment, because they were even lower than expected. It may not
yet be the political "death" of PPC, as he may still want to defeat
António Costa again in the next parliamentary elections. Yet, his position in
the party is considerably vulnerable.
3 big winners:
Rui Moreira – He was elected
as an independent and wins for the second time in Oporto with an absolute
majority. Looks like he’s Oporto‘s John Snow "the King in the North".
Isaltino Morais - won Oeiras
once again as an independent and with absolute majority, having spent
previously a few years in prison, convicted of corruption, money laundering and
tax fraud.
Assunção Cristas - the leader
of the centrists benefited from the poor choice made by the SDP in Lisbon and
aimed for a historic result for her party reinforcing the leadership.
Finally, though we may be too distracted
by the elections or the economic growth, which is occasionally praised by the
media, we cannot smother the worrying information given by the Bank of Portugal
that the total value of public debt has increased once again in August, and
surpassed for the first time the 250 billion euros!
Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of
International Relations
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