PORTUGAL: LOCAL ELECTIONS - SOCIALISTS ARE THE BIG WINNERS?

António Costa and his socialist party deserve congratulations. Not for the country's recent economic performance. This is questionable –it depends on the financial point of view and also who should get the merits. But rather because the results in the local elections brouht the Socialist Party to historical levels.

On the other hand, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has had a very poor result, with the two most important urban centres, Lisbon and Oporto, two paradigms of this electoral catastrophe.

As for the left-wing parties that support the socialists in the so-called "contraption government", we find two diverging results. The Left Block, a little more emphatic in general, with some prominence in the capital city, but still with little expression in this kind of elections, remembering it didn’t win any council. Regarding the Communist Party, traditionally strong in local elections, it had a tremendous disappointment, since it lost several important city-councils, such as Almada, Barreiro, Beja, Moura or Peniche. This loss was so obvioust that, contrary to the past, this time his General Secretary admitted the terrible disaster of this election.

Those who have reasons to celebrate the election results are the center-right supporters, led by Asunção Cristas. It got one more council than in 2013 and a fantastic 20,57% in Lisbon electing 4 city councilors.

António Costa can rejoice with this result, but it shouldn’t be too dazzled. In the upcoming elections, he may face a more fragile SDP, but if he wants to continue with the far left support, he will have to rely on a stronger Communist party. Or else renounces from this bizarre alliance and seeks to achieve a result that allows him to govern alone. He needs to call for early elections and take advantage of the current weakness of Social Democrats and left-wing parties. The recent distribution of salary increases in the civil service, retired people and pensioners has brought benefits to the socialists in the election results. But how long will  last this policy of distributing benefits to the civil service?

Also notworthy, the Socialists, despite having won in Lisbon, lost the absolute majority and in Oporto the result was a bit disappointing.

The SDP led by Pedro Passos Coelho (PPC), although not totally surprising the results, turns out to be a great disappointment, because they were even lower than expected. It may not yet be the political "death" of PPC, as he may still want to defeat António Costa again in the next parliamentary elections. Yet, his position in the party is considerably vulnerable.

3 big winners:

Rui Moreira – He was elected as an independent and wins for the second time in Oporto with an absolute majority. Looks like he’s Oporto‘s John Snow "the King in the North".

Isaltino Morais - won Oeiras once again as an independent and with absolute majority, having spent previously a few years in prison, convicted of corruption, money laundering and tax fraud.

Assunção Cristas - the leader of the centrists benefited from the poor choice made by the SDP in Lisbon and aimed for a historic result for her party reinforcing the leadership.

Finally, though we may be too distracted by the elections or the economic growth, which is occasionally praised by the media, we cannot smother the worrying information given by the Bank of Portugal that the total value of public debt has increased once again in August, and surpassed for the first time the 250 billion euros!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: IMF FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE LESS LIKELY

The Economist magazine, more specifically its "Intelligence Unit", reports that the possibility of the IMF hitting a financial assistance to Mozambique has become less likely, since this Fund requires a full disclosure of debt audits.

The IMF's tougher attitude is not surprising, as attempts by the authorities to block the investigation have been a well-known fact. Thus, a number of important issues remained unanswered in a very brief and vigorously drafted report issued by the Government.

The IMF requires a complete and transparent report clearly identifying where the loans went to.

It should be recalled that the Government agreed with an independent audit in order to ascertain the debt issue, namely how the loans were secretly contracted by two public companies.

This new setback seems difficult to resolve as the IMF doen’t want to be accused again of not paying enough attention to corruption issues and for not requiring more transparency, namely when the events took place.

In addition, The Economist highlights that the modest recovery of the economy cannot be ignored and the provision of some external financing has diminished the willingness of Mozambique to make concessions to the MFI.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: POLITICS CANNOT FORGET THE ECONOMY

That Brazil still has great potential and continues to be a shelved power, is no longer a novelty.

Whereas the political crisis plagued Brazil since 2014, the South American giant has lost perhaps the best chance to change from an emerging country to a developed global power. As is well known, emergent is not synonymous with sustained development, equal opportunities or even a uniform social welfare.

We keep living in a miserable political environment, with President Michel Temer surviving several political "earthquakes" of accusations - corruption and criminal organization - promoted by Rodrigo Janot until recently the Commander of the Attorney General's Office.

Yet, as the “Global SProspective” has repeatedly pointed out, the political swamp in which Brazil finds itself, goes from the President to all political and economic quarters, and doesn’t suggest a bright future in the short term.

In any case, the present scenario thoroughly outlined by Temer, will surely finish his term.

Once the global environment remains favorable to emerging markets, it is essential Brazil continues pursuing its potential growth by adopting an agenda of economic adjustments and structural reforms. The same has happened with other countries, such as Mexico, Argentina or India. However, Brazil can’t always count on the benefit of a favorable international context. It is crucial that the country considerably improves its policy framework so as to proceed the reforms.

Any emerging country has only a dynamic economy if it can at least stabilize its political-partisan quarrels. Surprisingly, Brazil has been able to evolve economically, despite the steady political embarrassment. Despite the proliferation of legal charges against many political figures, the government has been able to approve some measures that tend to boost the dynamism of the country's economy.

Therefore, it’s imperative to solve the most pressing political problems and then deal with some of the well-known problems, such as fiscal imbalance, inefficient tax structure, excessive tax waivers, very high wages in some public sectors, fragile educational system, widespread corruption and excessive state intervention in the economy.

Ultimately the, approval of a broad-based political reform in Brazil in the coming years is crucial, including also a reorganization of the electoral legislation. Only this way we may winess a more dynamic economy, which can never be disconnected from its eternal foundation: Politics.

 Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: PEOPLE LOST CONFIDENCE IN THE MPLA

The title of this article says it all, but if the truth be told is innacurate. The angolan population, a long time ago don’t trust on the MPLA.

These presidential elections only confirmed some of the scenarios that we have been emphasizing here.

The MPLA no longer represents the path and the solution that the Angolan people aspire to. The ordinary citizen urges changes aimed at meeting the most basic needs of the population. With so great potential the country has always been identified, it is painful and disgusting Angola to be the country with the highest infant mortality rate in the world. Basic needs are not "satiated" satisfactorily in most areas. Yet, this doesn’t seem to bother the Angolan MPLA elite.

After the National Electoral Commission (NEC) validated the electoral results, we had the confirmation the Government party is in decline and can only be held in power by artífices which are increasingly easily exposed.

- The NEC is at the service of the Government party;

- The same applies to the Constitutional Court;

- The counting of votes was manipulated;

- The opposition don’t accept the results justifiably and appealed to the competent bodies, calling for non-military intervention;

- It was recalled through facts that Jonas Savimbi in 1992, had accepted the election results;

- João Lourenço will continue to serve José Eduardo dos Santos’ (JES) interests.);

- And "got the qualified majority" a key for the MPLA to keep running the country at their pleasure;

- Isabel dos Santos and Zenu, sons of JES keep holding key positions in the Angolan economy;

- The Portuguese political class, for the most part, remains accomplice of the political farce the MPLA has been forging over the years.

These are some of the lessons one can draw from the Angolan elections. The farce and theft was exposed, however, fortunately we observed a more nonconformist opposition, at the same time espousing civility. We also acnowledged the  Angolans can’t stand such injustices any longer.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: COLLUSION, FRAUD AND LIES IN THE ELECTIONS

 Not surprisingly, these elections were to be fraudulent. Only those who are very naive, unifamiliar with the real world, or colluding with the MPLA government, may be astonished at the "results" MPLA made.

Although the latest results are still provisional fugures (the definitive ones are scheduled for September 6), one has already realized that the MPLA's greatest goal is achieved: the guarantee of a qualified majority, which allows it to continue its excesses and abuses.

How does the government party achieve this qualified majority? Loudly lying about the electoral results, “manufacturing” them through the National Electoral Commission (NEC), which has always served the MPLA’s interests.

All of this happens after UNITA, the main opposition party,released a first result, which, though it gave the victory to João Lourenço and the MPLA, would be very close in percentage terms, and the opposition would have more votes than the MPLA. That is, the scenario in the National Assembly would change completely in its configuration, and consequently, Angola could to some extent get rid of the dictatorial yoke that has lasted since independence. To the disappointment and revolt of the majority, the NEC presented sloppy results, in one occasion the sum of the voting percentages exceeded 100%!

Many of the observers, especially the portuguese, who are supposed to observe the elections, have praised the electoral act, highlighting the climate of peace and civility that prevailed throughout the voting. This, with a few exceptions, even seems to be true and to be praised, however, they have neglected to question the way the results have appeared. Were they in the polling centers? The vote counting in those centers had nothing to do with the results released by the CNE.

All opposition parties point out the results provided by the CNE have been forged and don’t correspond with the information given by their party delegates. What do "observers" have to say about this?

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

AFRICA: A LACONIC AND BRIEF LOOK

Mozambique

The road to an everlasting peace is closer after the meeting between President Nyusi and the main opposition leader, Afonso Dhlakama.

A concrete deadline was announced for the conclusion of the peace process.

By the end of the year, if everything goes well, we will have the peace process concluded. A few more steps were taken earlier this month, with military issues and decentralization expected to remain the main factors of discussion between the Mozambican Government and RENAMO.

Hopefully, Felipe Nyusi, at least on this peace promotion subject, will be more successful than in the economic and development issues of the country, because contrary to what he has been proclaiming, Mozambique isn’t being put back on track.        

Angola

The MPLA foam at the mouth since the “Makangola” site disclosed the results of the electoral poll.

Not surprisingly, it has long been clear the Angolan population doesn’t trust this dictatorial regime disguised as a democracy commited by José Eduardo dos Santos and his useful cronies.

The election results shall not reflect how much the MPLA regime is hated by the Angolans, since one acknowledges the results will be rigged once again.

However, it is already clear the MPLA is terrified by the changes that is progressively erupting in Angolan society. I tis quite obvious, especially among the young Angolan university population, more educated and, consequently, more aware of the lies and crimes perpetrated by the Angolan government.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: THE MEDIA ARE ACCOMPLICES OF THE GOVERNMENT

The Angolan elections are around the corner and each of the parties aims to spread their ideas in the best possible way, in order to captivate the citizen's vote.

In a country where only in theory through laws or the Constitution observes democracy, the party that has been in power since independence, besides compromising the legitimacy and veracity of the elections by not collaborating on the issue of international observers, continues to dominate the Angolan media, even in the midst of an election campaign.

Once again, the MPLA is turning the elections into a farce; the disparity in the attention given by the Angolan media to the different political forces is abyssal. The average MPLA time spent by the media in this election campaign period is on average over 60%. The remaining parties, or movements, are left with the rest, standing out UNITA with an average of 13%.

This situation is obviously unconstitutional and violates Angolan law. In an election campaign, there must be equality of treatment in relation to all participating parties, regardless of whether the service media are public or private.

Unfortunately, although this context is not unprecedented, it ultimately discredits justice in the elections, and certain candidacies gain more relevance to the detriment of others.

Given this scenario, it would be vital the National Elections Commission (NEC) ensured respect for equal opportunities and treatment of the various candidates. Equal conditions given by media is imperative. If the NEC doesn’t comply with its obligation, the parties must appeal to the Constitutional Court, which has jurisdiction over electoral issues.

In the face of the damage that media companies are causing in the course of the electoral process, they can be subject of heavy claims for monetary compensation.

If we want justice and veracity in the electoral process, we must condemn situations like that.

 João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations