ANGOLA: JOÃO LOURENÇO – THE FIRST "ADVENTURES" IN THE PRESIDENCY

It may prove challenging the task President João Lourenço has to face for his first term. It is well-known a lot of things are going the wrong way in Angola, and this is mainly due to the bad governance of his predecessor, who not pleased enough with almost 40 years as President, still keeps himself as MPLA’s president safeguarding the revenues that he has been raising along his “reign”.

Actually, although José Eduardo dos Santos (JES) is "retired" from the presidency his hallmark is quite clear - the influence his daughter Isabel dos Santos still has on Angola's most important company – Sonangol - remains obvious as well as the recent motion supporting JES and promoted by the party itself.

Angola, at least formally, is a democratic rule of law. The rules are dictated by the Constitution, and the President only owes obedience to it and the Law. However, it seems that in the present context, there are several questions about who actually commands the country. JES or João Lourenço? Was there actually a hand-over of power to Lourenço? The Law proves that two-headed presidencies are not possible or shared "de facto".

There are, however, some signs that can bring us some hope, in light of what Lourenço promised whilst the electoral campaign to fight corrupt acts. That was even pointed out by the main opposition leader, Isaias Samakuva, though with due caution in the words uttered, as if to say "wait and see".

Carlos Aires da Fonseca Panzo, for instance, was exonerated from the position of Secretary of Economic Affairs of the Presidency. This happened when João Lourenço became aware the Office of the Attorney General of the Republic had instituted a criminal investigation, based on facts denounced by Swiss authorities and that they could constitute crimes under Angolan and Swiss law, namely money laundering.

With this instant resignation, there is at least a clear breakthrough in the fight against corruption. Will the present-day muddle be put in check?

A radical cut with the past is vital, so that the Angolan people know unequivocally the development track.

Yet, it is critical the MPLA supports Lourenço bluntly, and he becomes independent and autonomous from JES and his partners, and actually fulfills the main goals outlined during the campaign and afterwards.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

DR CONGO: A SEAT ON HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL - SHAMELESS!

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has won a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. This could be a prank, but such matters should be taken seriously.

Following a UN General Assembly vote, DRC along with 14 other countries will join a 47-member "club" from January next year until the end of 2020.

Despite the huge criticisms from various political quarters, due to the “Dantesque” record the Joseph Kabila’s government presents, constantly disrespecting human rights, the vote in the Assembly gave DRC 151 votes.

            The DRC has been devastated by a series of conflicts throughout its history, the result of its endless natural resources, which has carried out countries and warring factions in permanent harassment for the pursuit of power.

One mustn’t forget President Joseph Kabila refused to resign from the presidency in December 2016 and this situation has been responsible for a considerable increase of violence. In the last year, the number of refugees has spread in the central and eastern part of the country - 1.5 million.

Government security forces are accused of being responsible for most of the violence in the Kasai region, where around 5000 people were killed and almost 100 mass graves were identified.

In such complex and vicious arena one may observe only in a full year, what kind of ethics does this UN human rights council have? Should we believe it is a credible UN body at the global level?

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL - THE UNCERTAINTY OF INVESTMENT RESUMPTION

Despite the crisis that Brazil is undergoing, we’ve already revealed some good news, mainly highlighting the gradual growth of the Brazilian economy; notwithstanding the constant turmoil regarding Brazilian politics.

In the last report on Brazil, we also emphasized that politics could not live unaware of the economy; the country to make progress, would have to overcome the various mess and disturbances that are before all of us.

However, although the economy has shown some signs of emerging from the recession, at the investment level we still don´t have big prospects for the near future. If we continue to have a perilous investment, Brazil is bound to have a new "chicken flight" growth.

The low level of confidence from economic agents and the hesitant resumption of production factors are usual in times of crisis, but the most decisive factor for Brazil still having low investment levels is fundamentally due to the unprecedented level of political uncertainty.

Indeed, the country has already experienced difficult times at the political level with disastrous consequences for Brazilian society, however, the reality is that this recurring climate of uncertainty causes investment decisions to be delayed and investors adopt a posture of " wait and see ".

The climate of mistrust increased mainly after the media broadcast the conversation between businessman Joesley Batista and President Temer.

In the coming months, investments may begin showing some positive rates if there are no more political crises

Yet, the great concern that is pointed out today refers to the scenario the country faces when Michel Temer’s mandate ends. Though some presidential names already showing up, uncertainty and doubt dominates the direction Brazil will take, so that 2018 is still considered by most economists a rather unexpressive year in the resumption of investments.

 Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: LOCAL ELECTIONS - SOCIALISTS ARE THE BIG WINNERS?

António Costa and his socialist party deserve congratulations. Not for the country's recent economic performance. This is questionable –it depends on the financial point of view and also who should get the merits. But rather because the results in the local elections brouht the Socialist Party to historical levels.

On the other hand, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has had a very poor result, with the two most important urban centres, Lisbon and Oporto, two paradigms of this electoral catastrophe.

As for the left-wing parties that support the socialists in the so-called "contraption government", we find two diverging results. The Left Block, a little more emphatic in general, with some prominence in the capital city, but still with little expression in this kind of elections, remembering it didn’t win any council. Regarding the Communist Party, traditionally strong in local elections, it had a tremendous disappointment, since it lost several important city-councils, such as Almada, Barreiro, Beja, Moura or Peniche. This loss was so obvioust that, contrary to the past, this time his General Secretary admitted the terrible disaster of this election.

Those who have reasons to celebrate the election results are the center-right supporters, led by Asunção Cristas. It got one more council than in 2013 and a fantastic 20,57% in Lisbon electing 4 city councilors.

António Costa can rejoice with this result, but it shouldn’t be too dazzled. In the upcoming elections, he may face a more fragile SDP, but if he wants to continue with the far left support, he will have to rely on a stronger Communist party. Or else renounces from this bizarre alliance and seeks to achieve a result that allows him to govern alone. He needs to call for early elections and take advantage of the current weakness of Social Democrats and left-wing parties. The recent distribution of salary increases in the civil service, retired people and pensioners has brought benefits to the socialists in the election results. But how long will  last this policy of distributing benefits to the civil service?

Also notworthy, the Socialists, despite having won in Lisbon, lost the absolute majority and in Oporto the result was a bit disappointing.

The SDP led by Pedro Passos Coelho (PPC), although not totally surprising the results, turns out to be a great disappointment, because they were even lower than expected. It may not yet be the political "death" of PPC, as he may still want to defeat António Costa again in the next parliamentary elections. Yet, his position in the party is considerably vulnerable.

3 big winners:

Rui Moreira – He was elected as an independent and wins for the second time in Oporto with an absolute majority. Looks like he’s Oporto‘s John Snow "the King in the North".

Isaltino Morais - won Oeiras once again as an independent and with absolute majority, having spent previously a few years in prison, convicted of corruption, money laundering and tax fraud.

Assunção Cristas - the leader of the centrists benefited from the poor choice made by the SDP in Lisbon and aimed for a historic result for her party reinforcing the leadership.

Finally, though we may be too distracted by the elections or the economic growth, which is occasionally praised by the media, we cannot smother the worrying information given by the Bank of Portugal that the total value of public debt has increased once again in August, and surpassed for the first time the 250 billion euros!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

MOZAMBIQUE: IMF FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE LESS LIKELY

The Economist magazine, more specifically its "Intelligence Unit", reports that the possibility of the IMF hitting a financial assistance to Mozambique has become less likely, since this Fund requires a full disclosure of debt audits.

The IMF's tougher attitude is not surprising, as attempts by the authorities to block the investigation have been a well-known fact. Thus, a number of important issues remained unanswered in a very brief and vigorously drafted report issued by the Government.

The IMF requires a complete and transparent report clearly identifying where the loans went to.

It should be recalled that the Government agreed with an independent audit in order to ascertain the debt issue, namely how the loans were secretly contracted by two public companies.

This new setback seems difficult to resolve as the IMF doen’t want to be accused again of not paying enough attention to corruption issues and for not requiring more transparency, namely when the events took place.

In addition, The Economist highlights that the modest recovery of the economy cannot be ignored and the provision of some external financing has diminished the willingness of Mozambique to make concessions to the MFI.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL: POLITICS CANNOT FORGET THE ECONOMY

That Brazil still has great potential and continues to be a shelved power, is no longer a novelty.

Whereas the political crisis plagued Brazil since 2014, the South American giant has lost perhaps the best chance to change from an emerging country to a developed global power. As is well known, emergent is not synonymous with sustained development, equal opportunities or even a uniform social welfare.

We keep living in a miserable political environment, with President Michel Temer surviving several political "earthquakes" of accusations - corruption and criminal organization - promoted by Rodrigo Janot until recently the Commander of the Attorney General's Office.

Yet, as the “Global SProspective” has repeatedly pointed out, the political swamp in which Brazil finds itself, goes from the President to all political and economic quarters, and doesn’t suggest a bright future in the short term.

In any case, the present scenario thoroughly outlined by Temer, will surely finish his term.

Once the global environment remains favorable to emerging markets, it is essential Brazil continues pursuing its potential growth by adopting an agenda of economic adjustments and structural reforms. The same has happened with other countries, such as Mexico, Argentina or India. However, Brazil can’t always count on the benefit of a favorable international context. It is crucial that the country considerably improves its policy framework so as to proceed the reforms.

Any emerging country has only a dynamic economy if it can at least stabilize its political-partisan quarrels. Surprisingly, Brazil has been able to evolve economically, despite the steady political embarrassment. Despite the proliferation of legal charges against many political figures, the government has been able to approve some measures that tend to boost the dynamism of the country's economy.

Therefore, it’s imperative to solve the most pressing political problems and then deal with some of the well-known problems, such as fiscal imbalance, inefficient tax structure, excessive tax waivers, very high wages in some public sectors, fragile educational system, widespread corruption and excessive state intervention in the economy.

Ultimately the, approval of a broad-based political reform in Brazil in the coming years is crucial, including also a reorganization of the electoral legislation. Only this way we may winess a more dynamic economy, which can never be disconnected from its eternal foundation: Politics.

 Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: PEOPLE LOST CONFIDENCE IN THE MPLA

The title of this article says it all, but if the truth be told is innacurate. The angolan population, a long time ago don’t trust on the MPLA.

These presidential elections only confirmed some of the scenarios that we have been emphasizing here.

The MPLA no longer represents the path and the solution that the Angolan people aspire to. The ordinary citizen urges changes aimed at meeting the most basic needs of the population. With so great potential the country has always been identified, it is painful and disgusting Angola to be the country with the highest infant mortality rate in the world. Basic needs are not "satiated" satisfactorily in most areas. Yet, this doesn’t seem to bother the Angolan MPLA elite.

After the National Electoral Commission (NEC) validated the electoral results, we had the confirmation the Government party is in decline and can only be held in power by artífices which are increasingly easily exposed.

- The NEC is at the service of the Government party;

- The same applies to the Constitutional Court;

- The counting of votes was manipulated;

- The opposition don’t accept the results justifiably and appealed to the competent bodies, calling for non-military intervention;

- It was recalled through facts that Jonas Savimbi in 1992, had accepted the election results;

- João Lourenço will continue to serve José Eduardo dos Santos’ (JES) interests.);

- And "got the qualified majority" a key for the MPLA to keep running the country at their pleasure;

- Isabel dos Santos and Zenu, sons of JES keep holding key positions in the Angolan economy;

- The Portuguese political class, for the most part, remains accomplice of the political farce the MPLA has been forging over the years.

These are some of the lessons one can draw from the Angolan elections. The farce and theft was exposed, however, fortunately we observed a more nonconformist opposition, at the same time espousing civility. We also acnowledged the  Angolans can’t stand such injustices any longer.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations