ANGOLA: JOÃO LOURENÇO PROCEEDS WITH THE CLEANING! SO, WHAT’S NEXT?

After the exoneration of Isabel dos Santos from the Sonangol administration (the “golden egg” according to President João Lourenço (JL), it seems that several heralds of Angolan and Portuguese democracy have left their "hole", having extolled and highlighted the act of the President.

This act was the culmination of a cleaning process that JL is carrying out at the main public companies of Angola – especially economic, natural resources and media level. At this point, the fight against corruption that he has so much praised during the presidential campaign seems to be under way.

However, we should not celebrate, as if Angola was already taking the path of a true democracy and entering the path of progress. It is true that the early months of JL seem to be promising, having sought to demarcate from the political line of its predecessor José Eduardo dos Santos (JES), targeting public business administrations that were controlled by JES’ friends and family and demonstrating unprecedented skills at this political level.

Yet, first we need to know if this new context of Angolan politics is not merely a reinforcement of the president's power. JES when it assumed the presidency of Angola also got rid of some elements annoying for the exercise of his power. Then we all know what happened. Moreover, only if JES is considerably weakened will he not react with the strength to the several insults JL has done to him since he assumed the presidency. JES is still the President of the MPLA, the ruling party which seems being in turmoil.

Although JL is well acquainted with the military because of his past and apparently having them under his control, one can’t help but be apprehensive about the fact the president is being surrounded in most situations by former supporters and allies of JES, which reveals human nature at its very worst.

In these first months of JL's term the winds of change seem to be blowing. However, it is too early to really gauge their true intentions. Will the Angolan society finally enter an era of freedom and progress towards a true Rule of Law, or are we simply witnessing a mere change of leadership and control of the state's key posts to secure the power of JL within a framework of disguised authoritarianism, which in fact is what has always been present in Angola?

We will have to wait for the next chapters, but more than that, we should be more than ever aware to what is coming.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

DR CONGO: FINALLY, A TIMETABLE FOR THE ELECTIONS!

The National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) finally released a timetable that planned long long-awaited DRC elections. These will take place in December 2018, having already generated protest by the opposition.

This almost "miraculous episode” succeeded after US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Halley, had recently visited the camp for Congolese people displaced by violence in the country. She left that camp literally in tears, and enhanced that polls to replace Joseph Kabila, were to be held in 2018. Failing that, the country would be bound to a consequent lack of support and solidarity from the international community.

Kabila, has been delaying leaving office, disrespecting the constitution and the agreement he had entered into. The country has been plunged into a crisis that has been worsening last year escalating the violence, especially in the east zone, and after delaying the elections originally scheduled for late 2016.

The main opposition parties criticize the timetable for the election, because this situation is not respecting the law and the political agreement previously signed with the government, where a date was still expected for this year. Thus, for the opposition, it is essential for people to be vigilant about these new developments, because a lot is at stake, and at the expense of cat-and-mouse game, many people have lost their lives and the population is suffering at all levels.

The reasons given by the Kabila Government and the CENI itself for the successive delays refer to the problems registering millions of voters across the vast central African nation. That was never grasped by opposition which accuses Kabila of manipulating the whole process.

Nevertheless, the public support of the CENI's announcement by the US, is already a sign that it will not tolerate further setbacks of Kabila’s government, otherwise it will lose all support at the international level.

The US through a statement has indicated the "urgent need for the DRC government to implement the confidence building measures included in the December Agreement. This includes an end to politically motivated prosecutions, the release of political prisoners, and respect for the right of peaceful assembly and association, so that opposition parties and civil society organizations may hold peaceful public meetings without government interference or intimidation. "

Thus, the US will commit to working with DRC institutions, regional and international African organizations, as well as MONUSCO (Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo) to ensure that the 45 million voters are able to cast their ballots on time and as scheduled in December 2018.

How wonderful it would have been to witness a similar conduct like President of Botswana Ian Khama. He announced he would stepdown in April 2018 and his current VP Mokgweetsi Masisi would govern the country until the elections to be held in 2019!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BOTSWANA: AN EXCEPTION IN AFRICA

Botswana was one of the countless territories which belonged to the British Empire. It would ensure its independence in 1966. At that time was one of the poorest countries in the world, and this was very clear when per capita income was observed.

            Almost all countries that have become independent in Africa, have faced many problems, resulting in widespread poverty of the population; and democracy; for its part, is often vilified where the rule of law can’t be fully accomplished.

Botswana, while not exempt from trampling on certain fundamental rules of democracy and disrespecting freedom of information and access to public funds by the opposition, is undoubtedly the country that has been able to develop more in key areas, at least as far as the African continent is concerned.

With a territorial similar size to France, with 70% of that area being part of the Kalahari Desert, its prospect of becoming another failed state in Africa and continuing one of the poorest countries in the world, was high.

How did we achieve this Botswana’s “miracle”? Economic freedom is by many considered to be the driving force of this success story. All this freedom was based on a trinomial - democracy, free markets and the rule of law. Therefore, promoting people who respected individual liberties.

Between 1966 and 1999, the country grew on average 9% a year, and transformed itself into one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

The foundation of the first major boost in the country was its first President Seretse Khama (1966-1980). This period witnessed a tremendous progress at the social and economic level. It embraced an export-based economy built around beef, copper and diamonds. Strong measures were taken against corruption and it was developed market friendly policies. As a cornerstone of this, a democracy of the liberal type was observed, where the rule of law was key, despite the fact there is a dominant ethnic group - the Tswana (79%). It has thus become the fastest growing economy. The main revenues supplied the infrastructure, health care, the education system, as well as other sources of economic growth.

The current President Ian Khama (2008 - ?), the son of the 1st president, Seretse, praises to further leverage economic freedom through the enhancement of private initiative. One can observe the correlation between economic freedom and high current growth rate and improvements in the socio-economic conditions. Nowadays, Botswana’s economy is consolidated in three sectors: mining, cattle and tourism. As it safeguards property rights very well, the country turns out to be a “safe haven” for investors and is one of the most coveted countries in Africa.

It is also at the forefront of innovation on the African continent looking for breaking into new markets and struggling to scale up inventions. An example of this was the creation of the “Botswana Innovation Hub Park” - the green building first science and technology park. Its primary goal is "to contribute to the country's economic development and competitiveness by creating new scientific technological and indigenous knowledge-based business opportunities".

As highlighted earlier, the secret of all this? Economic freedom.

Therefore, is this a country that collects only successes? Out of the question. There are problems which one can’t find an easy solution. The HIV / AIDS epidemic - although the number of deaths has dropped in the last decade, the infected increased considerably. In addition, climatic and geographical conditions have contributed to major environmental problems: drought and desertification.

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

ANGOLA: JOÃO LOURENÇO – THE FIRST "ADVENTURES" IN THE PRESIDENCY

It may prove challenging the task President João Lourenço has to face for his first term. It is well-known a lot of things are going the wrong way in Angola, and this is mainly due to the bad governance of his predecessor, who not pleased enough with almost 40 years as President, still keeps himself as MPLA’s president safeguarding the revenues that he has been raising along his “reign”.

Actually, although José Eduardo dos Santos (JES) is "retired" from the presidency his hallmark is quite clear - the influence his daughter Isabel dos Santos still has on Angola's most important company – Sonangol - remains obvious as well as the recent motion supporting JES and promoted by the party itself.

Angola, at least formally, is a democratic rule of law. The rules are dictated by the Constitution, and the President only owes obedience to it and the Law. However, it seems that in the present context, there are several questions about who actually commands the country. JES or João Lourenço? Was there actually a hand-over of power to Lourenço? The Law proves that two-headed presidencies are not possible or shared "de facto".

There are, however, some signs that can bring us some hope, in light of what Lourenço promised whilst the electoral campaign to fight corrupt acts. That was even pointed out by the main opposition leader, Isaias Samakuva, though with due caution in the words uttered, as if to say "wait and see".

Carlos Aires da Fonseca Panzo, for instance, was exonerated from the position of Secretary of Economic Affairs of the Presidency. This happened when João Lourenço became aware the Office of the Attorney General of the Republic had instituted a criminal investigation, based on facts denounced by Swiss authorities and that they could constitute crimes under Angolan and Swiss law, namely money laundering.

With this instant resignation, there is at least a clear breakthrough in the fight against corruption. Will the present-day muddle be put in check?

A radical cut with the past is vital, so that the Angolan people know unequivocally the development track.

Yet, it is critical the MPLA supports Lourenço bluntly, and he becomes independent and autonomous from JES and his partners, and actually fulfills the main goals outlined during the campaign and afterwards.

João Dias - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

DR CONGO: A SEAT ON HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL - SHAMELESS!

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has won a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. This could be a prank, but such matters should be taken seriously.

Following a UN General Assembly vote, DRC along with 14 other countries will join a 47-member "club" from January next year until the end of 2020.

Despite the huge criticisms from various political quarters, due to the “Dantesque” record the Joseph Kabila’s government presents, constantly disrespecting human rights, the vote in the Assembly gave DRC 151 votes.

            The DRC has been devastated by a series of conflicts throughout its history, the result of its endless natural resources, which has carried out countries and warring factions in permanent harassment for the pursuit of power.

One mustn’t forget President Joseph Kabila refused to resign from the presidency in December 2016 and this situation has been responsible for a considerable increase of violence. In the last year, the number of refugees has spread in the central and eastern part of the country - 1.5 million.

Government security forces are accused of being responsible for most of the violence in the Kasai region, where around 5000 people were killed and almost 100 mass graves were identified.

In such complex and vicious arena one may observe only in a full year, what kind of ethics does this UN human rights council have? Should we believe it is a credible UN body at the global level?

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

BRAZIL - THE UNCERTAINTY OF INVESTMENT RESUMPTION

Despite the crisis that Brazil is undergoing, we’ve already revealed some good news, mainly highlighting the gradual growth of the Brazilian economy; notwithstanding the constant turmoil regarding Brazilian politics.

In the last report on Brazil, we also emphasized that politics could not live unaware of the economy; the country to make progress, would have to overcome the various mess and disturbances that are before all of us.

However, although the economy has shown some signs of emerging from the recession, at the investment level we still don´t have big prospects for the near future. If we continue to have a perilous investment, Brazil is bound to have a new "chicken flight" growth.

The low level of confidence from economic agents and the hesitant resumption of production factors are usual in times of crisis, but the most decisive factor for Brazil still having low investment levels is fundamentally due to the unprecedented level of political uncertainty.

Indeed, the country has already experienced difficult times at the political level with disastrous consequences for Brazilian society, however, the reality is that this recurring climate of uncertainty causes investment decisions to be delayed and investors adopt a posture of " wait and see ".

The climate of mistrust increased mainly after the media broadcast the conversation between businessman Joesley Batista and President Temer.

In the coming months, investments may begin showing some positive rates if there are no more political crises

Yet, the great concern that is pointed out today refers to the scenario the country faces when Michel Temer’s mandate ends. Though some presidential names already showing up, uncertainty and doubt dominates the direction Brazil will take, so that 2018 is still considered by most economists a rather unexpressive year in the resumption of investments.

 Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations

PORTUGAL: LOCAL ELECTIONS - SOCIALISTS ARE THE BIG WINNERS?

António Costa and his socialist party deserve congratulations. Not for the country's recent economic performance. This is questionable –it depends on the financial point of view and also who should get the merits. But rather because the results in the local elections brouht the Socialist Party to historical levels.

On the other hand, the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), has had a very poor result, with the two most important urban centres, Lisbon and Oporto, two paradigms of this electoral catastrophe.

As for the left-wing parties that support the socialists in the so-called "contraption government", we find two diverging results. The Left Block, a little more emphatic in general, with some prominence in the capital city, but still with little expression in this kind of elections, remembering it didn’t win any council. Regarding the Communist Party, traditionally strong in local elections, it had a tremendous disappointment, since it lost several important city-councils, such as Almada, Barreiro, Beja, Moura or Peniche. This loss was so obvioust that, contrary to the past, this time his General Secretary admitted the terrible disaster of this election.

Those who have reasons to celebrate the election results are the center-right supporters, led by Asunção Cristas. It got one more council than in 2013 and a fantastic 20,57% in Lisbon electing 4 city councilors.

António Costa can rejoice with this result, but it shouldn’t be too dazzled. In the upcoming elections, he may face a more fragile SDP, but if he wants to continue with the far left support, he will have to rely on a stronger Communist party. Or else renounces from this bizarre alliance and seeks to achieve a result that allows him to govern alone. He needs to call for early elections and take advantage of the current weakness of Social Democrats and left-wing parties. The recent distribution of salary increases in the civil service, retired people and pensioners has brought benefits to the socialists in the election results. But how long will  last this policy of distributing benefits to the civil service?

Also notworthy, the Socialists, despite having won in Lisbon, lost the absolute majority and in Oporto the result was a bit disappointing.

The SDP led by Pedro Passos Coelho (PPC), although not totally surprising the results, turns out to be a great disappointment, because they were even lower than expected. It may not yet be the political "death" of PPC, as he may still want to defeat António Costa again in the next parliamentary elections. Yet, his position in the party is considerably vulnerable.

3 big winners:

Rui Moreira – He was elected as an independent and wins for the second time in Oporto with an absolute majority. Looks like he’s Oporto‘s John Snow "the King in the North".

Isaltino Morais - won Oeiras once again as an independent and with absolute majority, having spent previously a few years in prison, convicted of corruption, money laundering and tax fraud.

Assunção Cristas - the leader of the centrists benefited from the poor choice made by the SDP in Lisbon and aimed for a historic result for her party reinforcing the leadership.

Finally, though we may be too distracted by the elections or the economic growth, which is occasionally praised by the media, we cannot smother the worrying information given by the Bank of Portugal that the total value of public debt has increased once again in August, and surpassed for the first time the 250 billion euros!

Miguel Verde - Senior Consultant, Professor of International Relations