According
to a recent IMF report, Brazil's economic recovery should happen gradually, but
this will require reducing uncertainties in the political field, maintaining
the monetary easing already introduced by the Central Bank and achieving
progress on the agenda reform ( ex: social welfare system, APC – amendment proposal
to the Constitution which handles with the “ceiling” of the public expenses).
The Fund foressees a Brazil exiting recession this year having a growth of
0.2%, but for this it must move forward with the reforms.
The
main reform goals proposed by the government is rescuing the country credibility
and fiscal sustainability, and as a consequence in the foreign market.
The
big issue lies over the great uncertainties in the political field that can
hamper the main reforms.
There
are already some positive signs in the Brazilian economy, despite the 3.6%
decline last year. Inflation is surprisingly with declining levels and the
forecast is the country can gradually
regain growth and maintain a moderate pace in the short to medium term.
The
IMF also points out that freezing spending in real terms will help to reduce
the deficit relatively quickly, even though the share of the country's public
debt relative to the country's GDP can continue to grow until 2022, when it
will represent 87.8%.
In
fact the report shows that the performance of the Brazilian economy is below
the Latin American and other emerging countries. However, according to IMF
chief economist Maurice Obstfeld, in recent months Brazil is a good example of
a country that is part of a growth resumption and has made positive changes.
Miguel Verde - Senior
Consultant, Professor of International Relations
No comments:
Post a Comment